timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Notice this long term correlation between the CADUSD and USOIL. First - look at the MONTHLY chart over 10 years and look for times when they are noticeably out of relationship. Second - look at the WEEKLY chart over 5 years. Third - look at the DAILY bars over 1 year and see how tightly structured these to markets are lately. Fourth - look at the 4-HOUR bars...

timwest Wizard

Today is the day you can take advantage of finding patterns in QUARTERLY data by looking for new trends to begin at the start of quarterly time windows. Quite often the markets run on accounting periods because portfolio managers want to "dress up" their portfolios for quarter-end and then "undress" them at the start of the new quarter, or get aggressive in a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The 1800% rally from the low in Ethereum has to be one of 2016's greatest so far: When a market is so good,it doesn't get oversold to allow everyone to get in. I'm no expert on ETHXBT fundamentals, but I like the story and I am late to the party. Distributed computing sounds very promising, but also the violent downside is clearly evident in this chart. ...

timwest Wizard

Here's what investors and traders routinely miss: Free cash flow yield. What is free cash flow? It is what is truly left over from running a business. If you purchased a business and then held it for yourself to reap the benefits, then you'd want to understand free cash flow. Search for it online to understand the nuances. A main element is that you add back...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Refer to my previous posts on GM and the 0.85 book value ratio. Tim

timwest Wizard Updated 

Using the building blocks of trends (my "Time at Mode" methodology), I have constructed a logical "forecast" for the next month for the price of silver. The amount of accumulation that occurred under $14.50 suggests to me that those buyers are in control and that RE-TESTS of $14.30-$14.10 are going to be unlikely. For now, the current daily and weekly decline...

timwest Wizard

The lowest volume of trading in the SPY is right here across the price action from 212 down to 198. Why is "low volume" important? Because low volume means that there were so many sellers at 204 "on the way down" that the buyers were overwhelmed and couldn't handle the deluge of sell orders. Where a market "DOESN'T TRADE" is more important than where it...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I'm working on this long term analysis of the cardboard box company PKG. Sheer panic in the stock is setting up a low risk entry for long term investors. It's trading at 10 times or 10% earnings yield (roughly). By the end of February it "could" lose it's downside momentum on the monthly chart. January had a large decline and February so far has a much smaller...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a perfect example of the TIME@MODE concepts at work in the markets. Count from a low and find the level where the most number of bars touch the same price. Then draw a box around the range of the bars that touch the mode. Use that box of accumulation to project the next rally in both time and price. In time, count the number of bars that touch the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

It's close to spring and corn is about to break out of a triangle. I could see how people will be flocking to Corn in March-April-May-June as you can clearly see that Corn hasn't had the excessive volatility that stocks and bonds have had this year so far. Corn looks like a peaceful lake compared to a tsunami and a typhoon over in the equity and bond markets....

timwest Wizard Updated 

As measured by the ratio between HYG (Junk Bonds) and TLT (US Government Bonds, 20 Year). HYG is now outperforming TLT by 14% from the extreme level as that seen in late 2008. Clearly the fears have outweighed the evidence for this disproportionate pricing of junk bonds. Back in 2008 we had financial firms closing their doors, Lehman, AIG, Bear Stearns, Banks...

timwest Wizard Updated 

It isn't the easiest thing in the world to sell short a market that is rising as strongly as IBB has here lately. However, when a trade is "hard to take" and it is following a set of rules, then it should be taken. The rules involve my personal RgMov indicator, which has failed to confirm the new high in IBB. Granted, that may make it seem like a terrible...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Maybe that is too extreme, but it hopefully caught your attention: I put a short sale recommendation last summer and MSFT and it had an excellent down-move from that publication. Now MSFT has made another earnings announcement and it has made a new high, it's time to revisit and see what valuation looks like. Well, the valuation is a problem. The PSR or...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Details to follow. SEE OTHER CHARTS PUBLISHED - LINKS BELOW Tim 11/18/2015 Wednesday 8:04AM EST

timwest Wizard

IF sales double every 2 years, margins stay the same at 20% and nothing else changes. Of course, this assumes that you own the whole company outright. Meanwhile you can buy AAPL-1.50% and earn roughly that 16% return each and every year so that in 6 years you will have your entire investment returned (6 years at 16% = 96% return on your capital). It's the tale...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I was putting the news releases on the chart for an instructional demonstration when I noticed how the Pre-Model S time frame was mimicking the Pre-Model X time window now. The three highs and consolidations all seem to match up a little and with a little imagination, you could see how investors will wait until the "real deal" is actually out and selling before...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I only have made 1 forecast for the entire year in each of the past 4 years. The market rarely does what the majority thinks it will. So I do my best to be sure that I am not in the majority. Last year I was neutral expecting choppy action when everyone else was very bullish. This year with many bears, therefore I do see another sideways year this year, but...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Note the 69%, 66%, 61% 76% drops in crude oil prices going back to 1986 and see how those drops impacted the future of the stock market. We don't know with certainty that this pattern will continue, but it is interesting to look at the market and see what you can learn from what has happened in the past. In 1986, crude oil crashed from the $30 level and...