timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Enjoy my analog and look at my previous posts about the long term patterns in the Dow Jones Industrials. Note how similar the structure is on the 10-fold booms and the similar technological advances that made the boom so powerful. The next boom will likely be in "energy efficiency" and continued "internet boom", but for now we don't have a demographic boom to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Thanks to Ivan Labrie (@ivanlabrie) here on TradingView for putting up this graph this morning in the Key Hidden Levels chat room because it really highlights how Tesla has kept pushing higher relative to crude oil. Of course we are all watching crude oil for a bottom down here somewhere near this $30-$20 range, so comparisons going forward might be very...

timwest Wizard Updated 

80% of the time stock prices fall (after inflation) after more than 5 years! I posted this chart a year ago. See links below. It looks as if we are right in the thick of all of the other "tracer" lines, which are simply a copy of the stock market action after each Federal Reserve Chairperson took office until they resigned. You can zoom out and see all of...

timwest Wizard Updated 

If you watch the S&P500 or invest in equities, you often want to know what the general trend in the market is and there is one very simple ratio you can watch that alerts you to when the conditions are dangerous. Oddly, the way the market works, however, is that once everyone has sold (or taken enough risk off of the table), the market can then find a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

In several previous posts I have made on GM, I have pointed out the 0.85 x's book value level. Most recently last fall when GM was below $30. The key to any investment strategy is also having an exit plan. GM traded up nearly 40% in valuation from the low last fall to the high last spring before turning back down last summer. Any variety of exit plans could...

timwest Wizard Updated 

AAPL has trended very well using long term charts and this is a unique time frame that you can create here at TradingView to give something a "look" that no one else has. What if you group bars into 3-days at a time? What would the chart look like? What I am pointing out here is an indicator called Range Movement (RgMov) that whenever it hits a 44-bar high it...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I mapped out this decline on January 20th in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom here at TradingView. Without going into extreme detail at this moment, I am looking for a decline over the next 4-5 weeks to potentially see the price fall to $260 from $393 at the moment. There is tremendous distribution in the chart pattern, especially as shown by RgMov, my...

timwest Wizard

It's a time to sow seeds in the oil market here with a long term view in mind. Short term the market looks terrible with no bottom in sight. Long term we are down to the bottom end of the range with only $30 until you get oil for free. The risk/reward is very interesting here since the last 2 years range is over $100 to the current $30. If the price of oil...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Time@Mode is a powerful, simple, building-block method to describe the trend in any time frame. Refer to my many other Time@Mode charts here at TradingView. Looking at the rally in XGY0 (Shanghai Class A Index), you can see in early 2015 that it built 8 weeks at the 3400 level and once it broke out of that range it moved up for 8 weeks. Once it rallied to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Daily Downtrend is still in effect. There are many bearish factors happening on this chart: 1. Earnings were reported at the end of April and AAPL has not re-grouped and has not advanced since that report. 132 is the "KEY LEVEL" to watch. 2. 4 "range expansion" down days have occurred since the recent high. 3. An area of "INDECISION" occurred (see black...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Janet Yellen has warned about the bubble in Biotechnology, and rightly so since prices are up 10-fold from the lows in 2002. Stories of biotech companies getting acquired and then having their drug prices multiplied overnight by unscrupulous owners is going to backlash into new Gov't regulations, at least a rational mind would think. The game of developing...

timwest Wizard Updated 

US Corporate Bonds (8-10Yrs) Vs US Treasury Bonds (20Yrs) Rising Ratio = Corporates Outperforming Treasuries BLUE BARS = THE S&P500 STOCK MARKET INDEX When Corporates underperform Treasuries and the ratio declines on this chart (black bars), USUALLY the stock market has gone down at the same time (NOTE THE BLUE BARS at the same time as the RED HIGHLIGHTED...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Trend down since September 2014 for HYG US Junk Bonds are still Trending Down Means investors are taking Risk Off the Table Trend Down means a 2-month low in an indicator that measures the ease of movement in the market and it has stayed in a down trend position since then. The magnitude of the decline isn't that great here, as the trend turned down in...

timwest Wizard Updated 

If you examine my last TSLA chart, I pointed out that at 192 you could buy TSLA at a low 7.2 x's sales and get a good entry price. In the summer decline, which was a combination of market correction, reduced annual sales targets and slower release of Model-X and trouble with manufacturing the Model-X and very weak prices for crude oil, TSLA had a sharp drop to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

There are so many comments on the trend line in the US Dollar that I felt it was important to post a chart that doesn't consider the HIGHEST HIGH made in the blow-off euphoria top in 1985, but from the highest "monthly low" and highest "quarterly low" to compare too. I also added the variety of signals that were created by trends in the US Dollar using my "Time...

timwest Wizard

Look at the history of these two stocks going back to 2011. They are identical in performance and yet AAP reports its earnings FIRST and the stock tanked 30 points or 15% last month. Autozone reports on Dec 8th and could face a similar fate as AAP since they are in the same business. Lately, new car sales have taken off to the upside and at some point...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Notice what you see on Zillow's chart, that the seasonally slow time of the year for real estate is when ZG has bottomed. It bottomed meaningfully in 2011-2012-2013 and was only a trading bottom in 2014. We could see the same pattern again this year, and today is the earliest bottom that we saw from last year. Real estate is a seasonal business and now...

timwest Wizard

Each stock in the DJIA reports earnings and creates an important "market memory" level that is usually useful as support or resistance after earnings. What I have done here is to graph what the earnings level is for the entire DJIA-30 stock composite so you can see how the market is acting and where it might find support and resistance using this special...