timwest

timwest Wizard

It's TIME to make the switch: Target is rolling over and Walmart is turning the corner. Time to Sell (Short) Target and Time to Buy (Go Long) Walmart Time frame for this trade: 1-3 months, if profitable, then maybe hold 6-9 months. Walmart has been beaten down by higher self-inflicted labor costs (raising the minimum wage on itself) and a soft economic...

timwest Wizard

As soon as DD turn up relative to SPY on the day highlighted it was the time to put on the trade. Even if you waited until it went over the 10-day average of the ratio, you would have gotten in with very good risk/reward. You would have had 1% drawdown on the first day's open, then as much as a 19% gain from there to today's high, or a 16% return to the last...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Du Pont (DD) is deeply oversold and out of favor, thanks to its heavy cyclical nature and chemical exposure. I like how the volatility of DD shares have quieted down over the past few days here, which can signal that the sellers are done with their selling for the time being. The way to put this trade on is to wait until the DD starts to outperform SPY on a...

timwest Wizard

The chart here is a mishmash of trends ongoing currently. I define trend quite simply: 1. Downtrend = when there is a 5-day period without a new high, then you are in a downtrend. 2. Uptrend = when there is a 5-day period without a new low, then you are in an uptrend. 3. Uptrend = in force when the last sale is above the "most frequent price" of the...

timwest Wizard

Many people "bought the dip" to the 290-300 level from the $340 peak become the new supply here to check any advance. Those buyers are feeling relief after suffering a drop of 20% in a month, but now the psychology will be "Just let me out of this stock at Break-Even" thinking which will keep the stock from rising above this level for at least a few weeks. The...

timwest Wizard

Silver Launched higher today for one big reason, the release of the employment number, but there were other factors setting up coming into this number. Silver's triangle is well displayed here using the "highest lows" and "lowest highs" to create the pattern. Silver is rallying for a number of reasons: 1. Start of a new quarter (7.7% decline in 3rd Qtr) 2. ...

timwest Wizard

I am analyzing SYF this morning - the stock earns roughly 2% per quarter or 8% per year, roughly, so it seems cheap. I owned it from the IPO and held it for the rally to near 30 in 2014 and sold it. Now I get the chance to repurchase the shares close to what I sold them for. Earnings for the last 4 quarters are 70c, 64c, 66c, 65c, and estimates are for 68c in the...

timwest Wizard

There are a few ideas which will help you decipher where support and resistance are in the market. With the help of TradingView's powerful graphical ability and a subscription to some of the premium services, you can "see" levels of support/resistance in unique ways. One I am showing you here is "volume profile" which you can set over a time range that you...

timwest Wizard

Using data from the US Catholic Church website www.usccb.org I have plotted YELLOW ARROWS over the month of the Papal visits. Other websites have pointed out that the Pope has visited the US only at important stock market tops, but you can see here that although the timing of the September 1987 peak and the April 2008 peak in the stock market are astounding,...

timwest Wizard

The DAX has peaked before the SPY (blue line) in the two big bear market drops of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. And the DAX peaked first in this recent peak and bear market, off 24.7% at the lows and off 22+% now. The US market is nearly 90% correlated to the DAX, but the DAX has had deeper corrections. You can see all of the bear markets on the chart. They are...

timwest Wizard

HYG/TLT Ratio Is a simple ratio of Risky Bonds vs Safe Bonds IF this ratio is declining, risk is getting punished. Note how the stock market goes sideways if this ratio is declining. Siamese Twins Here as Banks De-Leverage from 2007-2010. Since then if HYG/TLT is declining - the stock market is is flat over extended periods of time. Note the red arrows...

timwest Wizard

Apart from a catchy rhyme - the S&P500 has not bested its peak level, when using the SPY, or the investible index of the S&P500. That's quite a non-return over 15 years. Zero return despite two massive losing streaks of 48% and 53% (using only monthly closes in the calculation). Granted, this doesn't include dividends paid out on SPY, which has been roughly...

timwest Wizard

Here is a way to define the trend and how to define a trade entry and exit that has been working nicely in the Coffee futures for the past 6 months. The last 2 trades were losses but there is a trade now that is in small profits. The box in the top-right of this window shows the P&L of the signals from March forward. 1st - Define the trend - If RgMov (blue...

timwest Wizard

If a 75% decline will scare you out of a stock then I strongly suggest you never invest in stocks. Stocks are a voting machine in the short term that only measures what someone is willing to buy or sell the stock at in the short run. In the long run (pun intended) the growth of sales and earnings (and hopefully a dividend) is what makes you money. So, if you...

timwest Wizard

Here's why you've seen those ads on tv lately (US Open Tennis too), because you have witnessed the utter collapse of the ALERIAN MLP ETF versus the S&P500 since they initiated and HEAVILY MARKETED this investment back in 2012-2013. Since that "heavy marketing" stage, Alerian has dribbled down to a massive loss relative to the benchmark they were hoping to keep...

timwest Wizard

Mid-Point of Rally is being TESTED AND 50% speed-line is being violated today AND price cluster at 127'16'0 is breaking (where every day touched for the past 16 days) If no "bounce" from oversold here at the mid-point of the rally at 127'03, then sell @ market over the next two days. A market that can't bounce from oversold is even more weak. Target 125'24. ...

timwest Wizard

GM is leading the way up for Volkswagen (VLKAY). Yesterday, Volkswagen announced its entrance into the EV market with a Porsche 911 model due in 2019. Even though EV won't move the needle on VLKAY's giant income statement and balance sheet. Either way, VLKAY hasn't made a new low in over a week and CCI has turned up from oversold (from -100 to over 0) and it...

timwest Wizard

I published this chart back in July before the madness in August and I pointed out the 194-182 level as an important level for the market to re-test since it didn't get tested since last fall and historically, these levels have gotten tested. Why is this important? The buyers that step in and buy when the market is falling apart are the strong hands and they...