timwest

timwest Wizard

Here is a long term picture of the S&P500 since the close on 9/10/2001 when the S&P closed at 110.05. We all remember the stock market was closed for a week and then re-opened on 9/18/2015 in a miraculous effort of humanity to restore power and order in one week from the terrorist attacks on New York City. From what you can see on this chart, the market did...

timwest Wizard

For those of you just putting your toes in the water in the investment world, this is a good example of the long term wealth that can be built in the stock market. What causes long term wealth? The compounding effect of sales growth through a profitable venture. The investment world always has to say that the past does not predict the future and that past...

timwest Wizard

The 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today: 1. Using the closes - 2. Using the highs - 3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line) 4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) - 5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price,...

timwest Wizard

Ratio Chart: You can see how closely these two stocks trade (the blue line is GM) since Volkswagen (the bar chart) is a top selling auto company in Europe and GM is a top selling auto company in the US. The ratio of the stock prices oscillates in a tight 15%-20% range over that past few years. Since the stocks have gone NOWHERE over the last year, you can see...

timwest Wizard

Did anyone buy? Tim 2:16PM EST 9/2/2015

timwest Wizard

The base building action in Pandora is evident on this time frame as the whippy, expanding price pattern where the price makes higher highs then reverses and makes lower lows, only to reverse around again and make higher highs (over and over) is setting up some very interesting basing action. The 11-day CCI (at bottom) is turning up from -100 which is a bullish...

timwest Wizard

Note what happens each time there is a dramatic run-up in bonds as portfolio managers liquidate stock positions. That spike down in MMFI Index, or the % of stocks over their 50 day moving average is at least a good measure of the amount of shifting going on between asset classes. From 121.79 last in TLT it looks like TLT can climb up to the 138 level over the...

timwest Wizard

When the going gets rough, you go back to basics and buy the basic necessities - like crude oil and coffee, the other "black gold". Look at the divergence in the RgMov indicator which is making higher lows while the recent price action is lower lows. If we get a turn and some upside range expansion (where the market is UP by more than yesterday's trading...

timwest Wizard

Tesla survived the weekend (reinvigorated by the stock 2ndary last week at $242), unlike my mother Jean West who passed away in peace Sunday holding her son's hand and let go of her life to join her adoring husband, my Dad, in heaven. I hope that you all get to enjoy life the way my mother did and the generous way she loved and supported all of those she came in...

timwest Wizard

Updated chart of the DJIA that shows how the market rallied back to the 17769 resistance level in the last rally into month-end July before turning back down. Earnings for CSCO are due tomorrow, then WMT and HD are next week. Another interesting point to make on this chart is that the 1-year moving average, which is 253 days provided resistance on the last...

timwest Wizard

The sum of all of the KEY LEVELS of the DJIA stocks that have reported as of August 2, 2015 represents a resistance level if the market is below it or a support level if the market is above it. The latest batch of earnings from the oil sector have weighed down the number (CVX, DD, XOM, in particular) from 18,150 down nearly 400 points to 17,769. The...

timwest Wizard

Earnings season is in full swing and the KEY EARNINGS LEVEL for the DJIA is still being assembled, but it is falling as I calculate it because of stocks like XOM, UTX, MMM and others are trading down lower than when they reported back in April. Look at the trend of the % of stocks above their respective 50 day moving averages, which is the MMFI Index at the...

timwest Wizard

INFORMATIONAL: Hillary Clinton Tax Proposals: 1. Change long term capital gains from 1 year to 6 years. 2. 2-3 years holding period would be taxed at ordinary tax rates instead of <1 year now. 3. Reduce capital gains tax on small business or "innovative" new businesses (Who defines "innovative"?) 4. Change carried-interest tax laws which are unfair. 5. Take...

timwest Wizard

The ratio of LUV/JBLU is turning up after a long slide of 50% from 3.00 down to 1.50 where it is breaking a 5+ month downtrend in the past two days. If you look at the pure price chart overlay of the two stocks, they oscillate back and forth over time and looking back one year (in this chart) you can see that LUV is lagging a bit lately and JBLU is ahead of...

timwest Wizard

I have published this before, but this shows more examples of how you analyze the market for "Smart Money Buyers" that you can rely on. First you have to wait for a spike up in VIX of at least 5 points, then you wait for a pullback of 75% of that VIX spike. Plot the movement from the price low to the level the market was when the 75% retracement level was...

timwest Wizard

I added some colorful green shaded areas to point out the logic behind the "POST VIX SPIKE RALLY SUPPORT". I published this concept over a year ago and highlighted it again back on July 13 when VIX was retreating sharply, implying some confidence was returning to the market together with liquidity to the options market. Now that the market is rolling over and...

timwest Wizard

I added some colorful green shaded areas to point out the logic behind the "POST VIX SPIKE RALLY SUPPORT". I published this concept over a year ago and highlighted it again back on July 13 when VIX was retreating sharply, implying some confidence was returning to the market together with liquidity to the options market. Now that the market is rolling over and...

timwest Wizard

The setup for this is for VIX to spike up 5 points. Once VIX spikes up 5 points and then falls back down by 75%, the storm has passed and the BUYERS who stepped in at those lower levels can be viewed as BIG MONEY or SMART MONEY since they were buying low in a mini-crisis. However, after VIX comes back down, the market is now a bit overbought and then the...