timwest

timwest Wizard

Here is a way to define the trend and how to define a trade entry and exit that has been working nicely in the Coffee futures for the past 6 months. The last 2 trades were losses but there is a trade now that is in small profits. The box in the top-right of this window shows the P&L of the signals from March forward. 1st - Define the trend - If RgMov (blue...

timwest Wizard

If a 75% decline will scare you out of a stock then I strongly suggest you never invest in stocks. Stocks are a voting machine in the short term that only measures what someone is willing to buy or sell the stock at in the short run. In the long run (pun intended) the growth of sales and earnings (and hopefully a dividend) is what makes you money. So, if you...

timwest Wizard

Here's why you've seen those ads on tv lately (US Open Tennis too), because you have witnessed the utter collapse of the ALERIAN MLP ETF versus the S&P500 since they initiated and HEAVILY MARKETED this investment back in 2012-2013. Since that "heavy marketing" stage, Alerian has dribbled down to a massive loss relative to the benchmark they were hoping to keep...

timwest Wizard

Mid-Point of Rally is being TESTED AND 50% speed-line is being violated today AND price cluster at 127'16'0 is breaking (where every day touched for the past 16 days) If no "bounce" from oversold here at the mid-point of the rally at 127'03, then sell @ market over the next two days. A market that can't bounce from oversold is even more weak. Target 125'24. ...

timwest Wizard

GM is leading the way up for Volkswagen (VLKAY). Yesterday, Volkswagen announced its entrance into the EV market with a Porsche 911 model due in 2019. Even though EV won't move the needle on VLKAY's giant income statement and balance sheet. Either way, VLKAY hasn't made a new low in over a week and CCI has turned up from oversold (from -100 to over 0) and it...

timwest Wizard

I published this chart back in July before the madness in August and I pointed out the 194-182 level as an important level for the market to re-test since it didn't get tested since last fall and historically, these levels have gotten tested. Why is this important? The buyers that step in and buy when the market is falling apart are the strong hands and they...

timwest Wizard

Here is a long term picture of the S&P500 since the close on 9/10/2001 when the S&P closed at 110.05. We all remember the stock market was closed for a week and then re-opened on 9/18/2015 in a miraculous effort of humanity to restore power and order in one week from the terrorist attacks on New York City. From what you can see on this chart, the market did...

timwest Wizard

For those of you just putting your toes in the water in the investment world, this is a good example of the long term wealth that can be built in the stock market. What causes long term wealth? The compounding effect of sales growth through a profitable venture. The investment world always has to say that the past does not predict the future and that past...

timwest Wizard

The 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today: 1. Using the closes - 2. Using the highs - 3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line) 4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) - 5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price,...

timwest Wizard

Ratio Chart: You can see how closely these two stocks trade (the blue line is GM) since Volkswagen (the bar chart) is a top selling auto company in Europe and GM is a top selling auto company in the US. The ratio of the stock prices oscillates in a tight 15%-20% range over that past few years. Since the stocks have gone NOWHERE over the last year, you can see...

timwest Wizard

Did anyone buy? Tim 2:16PM EST 9/2/2015

timwest Wizard

The base building action in Pandora is evident on this time frame as the whippy, expanding price pattern where the price makes higher highs then reverses and makes lower lows, only to reverse around again and make higher highs (over and over) is setting up some very interesting basing action. The 11-day CCI (at bottom) is turning up from -100 which is a bullish...

timwest Wizard

Note what happens each time there is a dramatic run-up in bonds as portfolio managers liquidate stock positions. That spike down in MMFI Index, or the % of stocks over their 50 day moving average is at least a good measure of the amount of shifting going on between asset classes. From 121.79 last in TLT it looks like TLT can climb up to the 138 level over the...

timwest Wizard

When the going gets rough, you go back to basics and buy the basic necessities - like crude oil and coffee, the other "black gold". Look at the divergence in the RgMov indicator which is making higher lows while the recent price action is lower lows. If we get a turn and some upside range expansion (where the market is UP by more than yesterday's trading...

timwest Wizard

Tesla survived the weekend (reinvigorated by the stock 2ndary last week at $242), unlike my mother Jean West who passed away in peace Sunday holding her son's hand and let go of her life to join her adoring husband, my Dad, in heaven. I hope that you all get to enjoy life the way my mother did and the generous way she loved and supported all of those she came in...

timwest Wizard

Updated chart of the DJIA that shows how the market rallied back to the 17769 resistance level in the last rally into month-end July before turning back down. Earnings for CSCO are due tomorrow, then WMT and HD are next week. Another interesting point to make on this chart is that the 1-year moving average, which is 253 days provided resistance on the last...

timwest Wizard

The sum of all of the KEY LEVELS of the DJIA stocks that have reported as of August 2, 2015 represents a resistance level if the market is below it or a support level if the market is above it. The latest batch of earnings from the oil sector have weighed down the number (CVX, DD, XOM, in particular) from 18,150 down nearly 400 points to 17,769. The...

timwest Wizard

Earnings season is in full swing and the KEY EARNINGS LEVEL for the DJIA is still being assembled, but it is falling as I calculate it because of stocks like XOM, UTX, MMM and others are trading down lower than when they reported back in April. Look at the trend of the % of stocks above their respective 50 day moving averages, which is the MMFI Index at the...