timwest

timwest Wizard

The setup for this is for VIX to spike up 5 points. Once VIX spikes up 5 points and then falls back down by 75%, the storm has passed and the BUYERS who stepped in a those levels can be viewed as BIG MONEY or SMART MONEY since they were buying low in a mini-crisis. After VIX comes back down, the storm has passed, but the buyers eventually get TESTED to make...

timwest Wizard

I don't often publish Elliott Wave since the counts rarely provide a reliable signal, which for me has always been "after" a pattern completes. I have had a lot of success with terminal patterns in stocks and in various markets, but rarely do I see clear "impulsive moves" to catch a big trends using EW. What I have done here is to use my RgMov indicator, which...

timwest Wizard

JACK is the owner of the fast growing Q-Doba restaurant chain and has been building a nice zone of consolidation and accumulation before its next advance to new highs. The relative strength to the overall market has been impressive lately and relative strength has broken out of a 6-week range. My proprietary indicator I call "RgMov" shows how easy the market...

timwest Wizard

For the bold and brave, go long here 120.07 last, 118 stop, for a rally to 124-126 where long term sellers are bailing out. If we re-test 124-126, we want to get short and look for a retest of the lows at 120-113. Earnings are due in 11 days and you can see that AAPL tends to move a lot on earnings reporting days. The long term trend is when the proprietary...

timwest Wizard

Bitcoin rallied to the time@mode targets based on the methodology I have presented here at TradingView. You can do the analysis yourself by following the guidelines. The analysis on the left hand side of the chart is untouched from the last chart I published (see link below for original chart). The current rally completed an 11-day rally out of the 11-day...

timwest Wizard

Thanks to @IvanLabrie who is constantly following and trading FOREX who pointed out this chart to me this morning, but it was so clear I felt it was worth showing all of you. The pattern here is as clear as you want to find in a trade setup. @IvanLabrie caught it nicely in his analysis and here it is plain and simple. #1 - Start the trend at the lowest price on...

timwest Wizard

The red lines are losses from trades if you had SOLD SHORT when a bear market had started (-20% move off of a closing high) and reversed and GONE LONG when a bull market had started (+20% move off of a closing low). The latest signal closed out of the only profitable trade in 5 years. This is just an educational piece and shows how choppy the Chinese market...

timwest Wizard

Now that the DJIA is down on the year and down 1% today, I felt it was a good time to look a the parallels to the last breakout in 1976 from an "11 years at one price" level like we had in 2012. See what you think. If we repeat what happened in the late 1970's with massive inflation (It averaged greater than 10% per year for 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981)...

timwest Wizard

Look at all of the large drawdowns across the same price range. 2009 = 20% drop 2010 = 18% drop 2010 = 14% drop 2011 = 38% drop 2012 = 20% drop 2013 = 25% drop 2014 = 18% drop 2014 = 13% drop 2015 = 11% drop (so far) From 2009's top until present - China is flat (measured by FXI), yet it has had MASSIVE VOLATILITY in price across a large price range. ...

timwest Wizard

Using the E-Mini S&P500 front month contract, I have made this chart to show the different time frames and how the market is reacting to multiple-time-frames. What you are looking at here is the range of the 1st quarter projected up and down from the close of the 1st quarter. The triangle point is the middle of the range and a reference point for resistance (see...

timwest Wizard

NOTE: The Chart has the content. This content here is "editable" and therefore at risk of being altered to the analysts advantage (hindsight). I am looking for "El Niño" weather pattern to have upside for Corn this year as drought could roll in and change the crop condition over the summer. ADDENDUM to chart: The purple rectangles (lines) are at the START...

timwest Wizard

Exactly 8 years separates us from the 2007 peak in the Dollar adjusted S&P500. What is that? If you divide the S&P500 by the USDollar, you can see what the US market looks like to Non-US Investors. Looking back from the June 15, 2007 Peak to June 15, 2015 - The S&P is up less than 40% (excluding dividends) Meanwhile, you had to lose 55% of your portfolio...

timwest Wizard

Analysis of the downtrend... Untouched from my last publication. More downside is possible and upside potential to 11,200-11,300 would set up very low risk short sales with 11,450 stop. The 11,400 is the "mode" of the decline and where sellers are in control. Prices could fall from a measured move from 12,400 down to 11,400 and project down 1000 points to...

timwest Wizard

The recent rally from the low on May 27 at 1.0818 is building in dramatic fashion. What is happening is that Range Expansion (RE) days to the downside are occurring at higher levels, which is a sign that shorts are scrambling and weak longs are getting flushed out. The "mode" of the advance is right here at 1.1250 and will be 9-days after today, so that sets...

timwest Wizard

Now that the DJIA has rallied 250 points today to 18000, it sets up a trade to go short right against this cluster of where all of the companies reported their earnings during April-May, as shown. Notice what happened in the past two cycles when stock prices later pulled back to the support zone provided from the earnings-reporting-season; stock prices keyed off...

timwest Wizard

38% return* for 8 years for both of these markets (*excluding dividends on both TLT and SPY, and TLT gave off far more dividends along the way). Notice how the massive drop in the stock market has grinded back to the level where bonds have been for the last 3-4 years. There is no "trade" on this chart - only an interesting historical return of two markets...

timwest Wizard

GMCR fell 37% from the peak in March over $130 to its low near $82 in June. That's a ripe selloff. I'm going from being a rabid short seller to a bottom-fisher down here. The stock has quite a few good things going for it technically speaking: 1. The stock popped above the lowest 3-days of trading range. 2. The stock moved up in a "range expansion" 3 bars...

timwest Wizard

Using Time@Mode Analysis: When OIH peaked in May just shy of $40. Since the peak you can see that it has been a slow-grind to the downside with price action indicating a steady stream of selling pressure. When you watch the number of days keep building up at lower and lower levels and the price slowly grinds down, you can make projections to even lower levels...