timwest

timwest Wizard

From my last post in BTCUSD where I highlighted an 11-day rally pattern, the time expired and during that rally a NEW 11-day rally pattern emerged. At the end of today, May 11, 2015, yet another 11-day pattern will form but will only trigger once another daily range is entirely above current levels. Don't count that until it confirms, but just making you aware...

timwest Wizard

This chart speaks for itself. Any additional thoughts? Tim 32.60 1:23PM EST

timwest Wizard

I've been doing this analysis by hand since April 28, 2015 in a spreadsheet at Google. 4/28/2015 1:30 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18111 17960 4/29/2015 9:44 AM 40.00% 60.00% 18083 17975 PFE, MRK reported 4/29/2015 2:26 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18055 17975 4/30/2015 9:55 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17968 17970 4/30/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 17930 17977 4/30/2015 3:54...

timwest Wizard

Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitstamp - Time is accumulating up here above the 11-day mode at 223-222 where the uptrend launched from. Look at April 29th when the range expanded as it jumped up strongly away from the accumulation under 223-222. For starters, the mid-point of the launch date was support "noted with the + sign" and the "exit" just over the previous highs...

timwest Wizard

16.53 last 18.00 target 16.125 stop Reasons: 1. Cluster of 5 days where the high is very similar = explosion pattern. 2. Range expansion "UP-bars" on the daily chart highlighted with blue triangles. 3. Range expansion "UP-bar" on the weekly chart 4. Volume building at the 16.50-16.60 level appears to be a breakout level if breached could lead to a...

timwest Wizard

For the big picture of gold, look at the monthly time frame. What is the story that the monthly chart is telling us? It is showing us that Gold has FAILED to make a new low after bottoming back in November at 109.67: December, January, February, March, April all failed to push new price lows and that is a sign that the sellers are not only extremely patient,...

timwest Wizard

The "Time at Mode Methodology" is a trend-following and range-trading technique which is allowing a low-risk trade setup at the 113-114 area for entry. I chose 1.13211 for entry based on more than 20 days of supply at that level from the decline in the 1st quarter. It is entirely possible the trade doesn't allow us to enter since I think there are so many...

timwest Wizard

The range expansion rally on Thursday is a sign that Bitcoin is in an uptrend here. There are 11-days at the 222-223 level, so that is our timing device. The pullback to the middle of the range expansion day is a perfect, low-risk entry level. Targeting 252 in the next 10-days. Buy pullbacks and risk a drop of one average range (11-day average range). Tim ...

timwest Wizard

Given all of the attention on German Bunds in the past two days, I thought I would graph an overlay of the US Bond market over the German Bund market. They both peaked almost simultaneously on January 30 and the US Bonds have been backing off since that time while German Bunds went back up to test those highs before rolling over. The last two days were quite...

timwest Wizard

I'm having a little fun making this chart, but perhaps I've spent too much time in front of the charts this week! Either way, what you can see is that the market is rather balanced over the last year and here we are turning over from overbought. We are at the "Sell in May and GO AWAY" time frame that makes people think twice about lightening up on equities after...

timwest Wizard

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words - Target: Various Levels - Red Arrows Earnings due May 6: Use options to manage risk. Tim 1:03PM EST Thursday, April 30, 2015

timwest Wizard

In order to see what is going on in the stock market, you might want to know how many stocks are above important levels in their own respective chart. What I have found important is to look at the level of any stock around the dates that earnings are reported and if it is above that level, clearly that is bullish. If it is below the "earnings" price level, then...

timwest Wizard

Note the various levels on the chart. Tim 9:30AM Wednesday, April 29, 2015

timwest Wizard

Comments on the chart. This is plot of the ratio of GOLD (XAUUSD) divided by TLT (US Gov't Treasury Bonds - 20 Year Duration). The downward regression appears to be no longer in charge of the decline. How far up could it go from here? Time will tell. Maybe 10% after 3% setbacks along the way, is my guess. Tim April 28, 2015 9.51 Ratio of XAUUSD/TLT

timwest Wizard

The latest rally in Tesla is over 57 points or 32% from a low at 181.40 last month. The question to ask yourself now? How cheap is Tesla? Well at the low in March it was trading at 7.3 times sales, which was down from peaks in excess of 14 times sales reached in multiple quarters in 2013 and 2014. This chart is almost untouched from the last publication in...

timwest Wizard

Short term traders can look at the correlation of crude oil (in blue, front month crude oil futures, CL1! symbol) and you can come to the conclusion that this rally may be at the higher end of the range. I imagine Goldman Sachs might want to get back on the bearish train about Crude Oil going down to $30/barrel as one possibility for a decline. There is gap up...

timwest Wizard

Here is another way to look at trade ideas - relative to the S&P500. Ratio charts allow you to quickly see how one asset is performing relative to another and if you go "LONG GM" in this example, you are really choosing to own GM instead of the "Market". So, it is important to be good and make money on your ideas, but if you had made more money by just owning...

timwest Wizard

The current correction is now longer than the last meaningful one back in Dec-Jan. I think DAX is healthy for the longs if above the 12000 level and under distribution if it is below the red-box marked "16" above. Targets on the downside are 11,400 and 11,200 potentially. Tim 12:13PM April 23, 2015 11867 last DAX