timwest

timwest Wizard

I highlight how crazy GPRO shares are in this chart since it dropped 57% from its highest low of trading near the $91 level. It was sickening to me to see how insane the price of this stock was relative to its revenues and it seemed only a matter of time before it came crashing down to earth. Trading is a difficult game and staying short amidst the crazed buying...

timwest Wizard

I outline how I was bullish on TLT when it was pulling back in Feb-Mar because US Rates were high relative to Foreign Gov't Bond rates. It made sense that arbitrageurs would buy the US Gov't Bonds and Sell Short Foreign Gov't Bonds to drive prices back together. Oddly, the rally that came after that into late March-early April has been disappointing and made me...

timwest Wizard

BITFINEX data. Scale the chart so that the bottom left corner is at the January bottom. The market is stuck at the mode of the entire 90% range since the 166 bottom to the 315 top. My last chart showed the downtrend and how time expired after the 12-day mode from the March high. There are a lot of NON-TRENDS going on here: But just wanted to show you how...

timwest Wizard

Using my Time at Mode Methodology - Following Up from my last posts on this methodology. Time expired on day 11 and 12 last week (while I was on vacation, so I didn't publish this). It takes a concentrated effort to keep managing what this methodology is telling you to do, but it is a very clear method to tell you exactly what is going on in the market from a...

timwest Wizard

Here are some news items, earnings releases and an overlay of crude oil on the TSLA chart to help you navigate how the stock is doing. CLEARLY, crude oil is having a major impact on the price of TSLA as you can see it dragged it down steadily from summer down into January. There was a brief lift in February and another test of the lows in March. The rally off...

timwest Wizard

TLT is now DOWN over the past 63 days, the first time in ages. Could this portend a much bigger move down? I was buying TLT on the latest pullback and then exited on the recent rally and am looking to go short here. It seems like the momentum is turning down and that QE is failing to drive TLT any higher. Money seems to be flowing elsewhere, perhaps Muni...

timwest Wizard

It looks like BABA is trying to form a bottom here with a THIRD attempt to range expand off of the bottom of the range. It looks like it could be short-covering, but sometimes short-covering is what makes a bottom. I think the trade here is to buy in several pieces: First here and second on the pullback to the middle of today's "upward-movement range" (From...

timwest Wizard

Alcoa (AA) kicks off the Earnings Season in the S&P500 each quarter. Here is a chart of the first month of "earnings season" which starts when AA announces. Alcoa appears to be negatively correlated to the market, which goes against conventional wisdom. If you look at how Alcoa is positioned between earnings reports, you can see that if Alcoa is down in price...

timwest Wizard

Here is a way to look at the Gold market (XAUUSD) by way of looking at stock market volatility, which can be measured by VIXY. VIXY is a measure of options volatility and frankly is just ONE WAY to look at fear. Either way, if you look at Gold here, you will see that it is rallying without much background fear in place. What I have done is to place a projection...

timwest Wizard

The lack of fear on this decline is still a major warning flag. IF we see the market drop by greater than today's range, look for the market to accelerate down. I left the forecast on here from over a week ago. The correction has been less than I had forecast so far, since I had looked for a drop to the 200 day moving average followed by a large bounce, but...

timwest Wizard

Bitcoin is trying to hold this extremely large volume and time level at 237 with this recent decline off of 296. There have been 4 impulsive moves down where the range expanded as the sellers trip over themselves selling off Bitcoin and trying to find the other side of the trade. The last push down 3 days retested the big support level at 237 where there were 20...

timwest Wizard

Still not much fear yet and the market is close to accelerating down if the trading range can expand beyond yesterday's 1.89 point range (208.25 close Monday - 206.36 low Tuesday). Opportunities to sell short against the middle of today's range around 205.30-205.50. Look for acceleration down if we get below the 203.50 level... Look for a bounce at...

timwest Wizard

To add to the previous sell signal of 9 days generated back on the 24-25th of March, there is a new 10-day sell signal that triggered at today's close. The sell signal will be enhanced if SPY is down on the day tomorrow, and additionally if it is down by at least 1.8 pts (which sounds obvious, but it can accelerate down from that level). Note the exceptionally...

timwest Wizard

You can watch how Tim's Time-At-Mode is structured right here and the signals that are on the chart. NOTE how exiting when time expired was essential to a good trade EXIT on the long position from the last chart publication. The latest sell setup just got stopped out on the NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT that Tesla will be announcing a new product line on April 30th. Elon...

timwest Wizard

New observation - new hidden level that I'm working on - If a stock outperforms the market, graph that day with a special triangle (blue, in this case). I show outperformance by showing all the days when AAPL rises when VIXY rises. VIXY rises when general market participants are getting more uncertain. Note how AAPL lost the progression of blue triangles prior...

timwest Wizard

March 30 is the projected bottom for the 7-day decline that set-up on the 23rd of March around the 262 level. It is very constructive that the projected decline to 224 did not happen AND the market held support at 237 where you can see the 20-day mode is holding the market decline. 237 is also where the most volume shows on the "volume profile" on the right...

timwest Wizard

Using the "Time At Mode" Methodology 117.50 target by mid-April. 125.31 last. Entry levels are 125.4-126.8 with stops initially at 129-130+. Try to use wide stops to avoid getting stopped out. Apple is experiencing some anxious selling ahead of the release of the Apple Watch, so this signal ends by the time the watch is released, so there will be no risk of...

timwest Wizard

What is going on here? Where is the fear? Each time we go down, fear rears its head as people sell their stocks and drive up the price of put options, which drives up the value of VIXY. The last selloff was "BARELY ANY FEAR" as noted in the small rise in VIXY into mid-March on the last decline. This time there is barely any noticeable lift in VIXY to show...