timwest

timwest Wizard

4 out of 5 times the market is down (after inflation, not counting dividends) 71 months after a changeover at the Fed. We are approaching the best performance for the stock market where there is minimal upside potential and maximum downside risk. The odds are stacking up that the future will not be as rosy as the past based on the historical performance of this...

timwest Wizard

I'm taking you back to last summer and breaking down the trend on a weekly basis to see how it formed and how that trend expired in the recent weeks with the end of three separate 10-week setups. The declines ALL REACHED their downside projections and they all reached new lows within half of the time of the time of the mode. We can use that benchmark on the...

timwest Wizard

Look for pullbacks to get on board Pandora after this breakout from a base formation. There is some resistance right here, and be prepared to buy if Pandora doesn't drop back to $16 in the next 3 days. If it can't pull back, then it means that is in extremely strong hands. Note suggested stop loss level. Tim 11:17AM EST, Friday, March 13, 2015 16.67 last +1.34

timwest Wizard

The decline in the S&P500 is going very orderly and according to logic. This is just an update, where I have highlighted the 10-day support level (purple box labeled "10 Pd Supp.") where we are seeing support holding the market here today. I also highlighted the 202-201 level where 15-days of time have built a level of support too. There is a 6-day downtrend...

timwest Wizard

The S&P500 bounced half-way back from the range-expansion down day it had on Friday and then backed away from that advance. The setup for this trade is for a downtrend to be in effect, which it is. Next is to look for a rally to the mid-point of a range-expansion down day, which happened today. The target is the low on Friday and the stop is the close on...

timwest Wizard

Here's a new DISCOVERY - to start the uptrend from the lowest high (not necessarily the lowest low). With trend calculated in this more logical way, it makes everything get CRYSTAL CLEAR in the SPY here. This observation makes the uptrend start at an earlier date, which puts a few more days at the mode for the uptrend and allows a little more advance and then...

timwest Wizard

TREND TRADING WITH RGMOV AND CCI 1. BUYS = Watch for RgMov to make a 2-month high, then buy CCI readings of -100 followed by trading above, then closing above a previous day's high. Exit at 3 ATR rally or when CCI reaches +100 adding each 1 ATR advance. Stop = 3 ATR's OR if RgMov makes a 2-month low on a closing basis (2 months = 44 days) 2. SELLS = Watch...

timwest Wizard

There are many variables shown on this graph, the most important one is the fact that TSLA is at the lowest PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) going back to the summer of 2013 when it bottomed near 6 times sales. TSLA is now at 7.9 times sales and could very well be suffering from the new round of cars at the Geneva Auto Show where the Volkswagen Diesel Electric looks...

timwest Wizard

When I see a stock go from 2.6 times sales to 6.4 times sales while revenues have fallen from $21 billion to $16 billion, you can tell that investors are hoping for something big coming down the road. For now, I'll look for a trip down to the lower end of the rising regression channel. Risk - $64 or $65. Target $53-$54. Tim 4:25PM EST Feb 27, 2015

timwest Wizard

In order to make 10 times your money, sometimes you do have to risk 27% - 48% of your capital. Why? Because that is just what it takes to make a massive return on your capital. If you risk 50% to make 10 times your money, that is a 20:1 winning trade. Look at the times when AMZN fell to roughly 2 times sales and had you purchased back in 2005-2006 in the...

timwest Wizard

If you start your analysis of GBPUSD at the low in January and walk forward from there and watch the mode build higher and higher, you can get an idea of how accumulation occurs and then use that accumulation to project both time and price. Note how I have labeled all of the modes as the price has moved since the low and take note of how the largest time of 9,...

timwest Wizard

GLD touched KEY TREND SUPPORT that was labeled at 114.61 here. Let's look for a move up to the recent high at 125. As long as the recent low holds, there is a decent chance for a rally. If we get through 124 on this run, then look for a rally through the balance of 2015. Tim 8:05PM Wed, February 25, 2015 115.70 last GLD

timwest Wizard

I like LVS here now on the long side after many short-side trades over the past year. I think the pictures of rising revenues, rising margins, declining shares outstanding and a stock that is in the bottom end of its valuation range appears quite attractive. With a dividend yield in excess of 4% as well, it will attract yield hungry investors which will keep...

timwest Wizard

Graphing fundamentals is extremely important for an investor. You can see important levels that matter to other fundamental investors. The reason for GM's recent strength may be simply from falling crude oil prices and still low interest rates along with generous financing available for automobiles. Given the sharp drop in crude oil, I think the best days...

timwest Wizard

The current pullback in TLT brings it back by a similar amount as the last correction in October-November. Given that rates are far lower in Non-US Gov't bond markets, there may still be capital flowing out of foreign bond markets and searching for a higher return in US Gov't bond markets. I would continue to trade the TLT on the long side looking for a...

timwest Wizard

Republishing. Great place to trim positions, cut back exposure by selling long term covered calls here at the money. Downside risk back to the 62-60 area with upside roughly to the 72-78 zone. Tim

timwest Wizard

Here is a powerful way to view the Gold Market by way of GLD, the Gold ETF. Volume is one way to look at what levels are the most important and by logic, the areas where the MOST volume traded means most people remember that level and traded at that level. And if a level has ZERO VOLUME (low volume) it means everyone WANTED to trade there but only one side of...

timwest Wizard

I published the long term chart of the markets under the Fed Chairman back to McCabe in the late 1940's under Truman. With the power of TradingView tools, we can put together a visual display like this quite easily. Curious to see if this inspires any of you to find other patterns in the markets. It looks like markets were lower in 4 out of 5 instances (80%...