timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Did anyone notice that the Covid19 Crash of 2020 fell to the level where Trump was elected back in November 2016? I thought it would be interesting to use the "bars pattern" tool to copy the US Presidential Election Year price action of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrials and paste it to the end of 2019 to see how we are doing compared to the last 4 elections. I'll...

timwest Wizard Updated 

A great way to monitor the stock market is to divide it it by gold. Since the Presidential election on Nov 8, 2016, the stock market advanced 46% against gold into the October 2018 high, but since then has tumbled back down to only a 15% gain over the past 3+ years. Violent setbacks are clearly evident on this chart and even reveals more of a triangle...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I stumbled on my "BEAR MARKET" chart from last year where the $QQQ fell 23.5% from the peak last summer into year-end.... and just want to point out that with stocks, you have to deal with 23% corrections in order to earn a 10% return, because that is all the market is up from the highs last summer. Yes, it FEELS like the market is up a lot more, but it isn't. It...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Will $AAPL fall all by itself? Likely. Will $AAPL fall relative to the $SPX500? Much more likely. Why? Apple has reached extended valuation levels at a time when portfolio managers and indexers are not likely to do anything to adjust their positions going into year end. Why sell now and pay capital gains taxes? Exactly, they wont sell now. They will sell...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I want to share the LOG-scale trendline for $BTCUSD using Bitstamp data. There is an "internal trendline" that has been useful and it is found using the highs of the bars instead of the lows. Notice how the breakdown in late 2018 occurred right from a break of the yellow "internal trendline". Also note that the market flushed out and then RETURNED to the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I am looking at the divergence in performance of the two "WAL" retail stocks, Walmart and Walgreens. $WMT has rebounded sharply from the two selloffs in 2018 while $WBA has been in a sharp dive since late 2018. The two are about as far enough apart in performance to set up a trade to bring the two back together. $WBA reports earnings on the 27th in just 2 days,...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The internal trendline is broken in $TSLA shares and it is poised to return to old price levels at higher prices. The green lines with green triangles are the price range at the release of Earnings and represent KEY LEVELS where stocks have important support and/or resistance. The internal trendline is the line that connects the "highest low" of rallies and you...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I formerly had lined up the December 28, 2018 bottom to the launch up in January 1987 and then with the bottom in May/June this year to the bottom in May 1987. So far, so good. Tim

timwest Wizard Updated 

The point? Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections. George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected. Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The pioneers in medicine ($IBB Biotech) vs the pioneer in automobile, battery and automated driving ($TSLA, Tesla). Notice the wave of investor recognition of the future of biotech from 2011 to 2015 matches quite well to the wave of investor recognition of the future of energy storage and EV vehicles in the stock price of Tesla. Biotechs returned to the US...

timwest Wizard

I am always finding interesting patterns and I post them to my Chat Room "Key Hidden Levels" here at TradingView.com where we point out trade setups using charts, news, earnings, and other tricks of the trading business. This chart is the $DJIA or Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to the 1940's to show the 10 year Rate of Change (%) but adjusted for...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Previous Fed Chair and Stock Market (divided by CPI, to make it "real"). You can see how there is turmoil typically at the beginning of a new Central Bankers term. Bernanke, not initially as he sat on top of a giant credit bubble that was set to pop. Greenspan had the worst initial stock market performance, but Bernanke had the worst performance with a close...

timwest Wizard Updated 

When $VIX SPIKES by more than 5 points and then RETRACES BY 75%, something VERY IMPORTANT HAPPENS. What is important about that? Well, one thing. When $VIX spikes, the market becomes ILLIQUID and options sellers run out of capital to provide liquidity to the market so that the prices of options have to INCREASE to bring more liquidity into the market. Why is...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Back in February this year I posted this chart here at TradingView to diagram the structure of the Crude Oil market and its potential upside along with the overhead resistance and the general timeframe to expect based on the chart at the time. The method I have outlined here is logical and not subjective, but what I do call this is "guessing" because anytime...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a log-scale chart of 10 Year Interest Rates in the United States as measured by the $TYX Index. I have noted several important events along the way: 1. 1987 stock market peak and crash 2. 1994 sideways stock market and bond market bear-market that destroyed Long Term Capital Management and their leveraged bets on sub-prime loans while shorting US...

timwest Wizard

When a market moves further and faster than you can imagine, usually there is someone with a large position that is losing in the market and everyone else knows it and is trading against them. I've seen it too many times before. The biggest one is when Long Term Capital Management owned lower quality bonds and sold short high quality US Treasury Bonds to finance...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Let's be objective here: Low VIX, or volatility, is not a sign in itself of immediate bear markets. Let's look at the last 10+ years of VIX data to find patterns that would suggest trouble ahead. What we see instead is that the last two periods of extended LOW VOLATILITY READINGS were during choppy to rising periods of the stock market. No market runs on...

timwest Wizard

Depending on the length of time you have been watching markets, you will find that you have a bias towards thinking that gold and interest rates (as measured by US Gov't T-Bill Rates) have some kind of a pattern. But the longer term chart reveals that there is almost zero correlation. I wont even run the "correlation indicator" because you can very easily see...