timwest

timwest Wizard

OIH 36.98 last: 41 target, 34.50 stop. ============================= With a reversal in the price of crude oil there is finally an identifiable bottom in the price of oil service stocks. Look for an advance of 10% in the next 6 weeks. 2% declines can be a place to enter positions during the advance. Note the regression channel trend down has been violated. ...

timwest Wizard

7 year overlay of TLT (20 Year US Gov't Bond ETF) versus SPY (the US stock market). The "see-saw" in the markets provides solid, if unsteady, returns from moving funds into weakness and out of strength. This graph clearly depicts the jumpy nature of this relationship that over time and with discipline, ought to allow a disciplined investor thinking long term...

timwest Wizard

The pattern I had posted in early June is coming along nicely but without the directionality that I had in mind, but the trading profits from selling strength and buying back on weakness has been nice, to say the least. As I perused this chart I decided to highlight the 5-day range with a yellow box and point out how the market has broken out of that range twice...

timwest Wizard

A picture in this example is worth a thousand words. You can see the channeling that the AUD has done for the month of June on a 30-min bar chart. I normally do not post charts at this time interval but I felt it was worthwhile to do in this instance. Stop loss suggestion 0.9990 Target suggestion 0.9860 Regards, Tim 3:15PM EST, Jun 13, 2012 Wednesday

timwest Wizard

I thought I would publish one of my charts where I am just working out the details and highlighting various things. I truly enjoy how markets move and I am constantly fascinated by the way our minds adjust to information and the way we change our minds.

timwest Wizard

I view Amazon as close enough to a level to buy because the distance to "massive support" is roughly 12 pts away and the distance to "strong sellers is 22 points. This provides us with nearly a 2:1 ratio of upside potential to downside risk. By: Tim West, June 4, 2012 209.88 last, 9:41AM EST

timwest Wizard

Here's the trade: AAPL is a short sale - compared to a BUY in the SPY. For every dollar in a short sale of AAPL shares you buy an equivalent amount of SPY (S&P500). Risk: 3% Upside: 6% In other words, I believe that AAPL will underperform the stock market in the near term. Tim 1:06PM EST, Jun 1 2012

timwest Wizard

I find this interesting - intermarket analysis. I try to look at as many indicators as I can handle and then come to an overall assessment of the market's position. Cotton has its complexities, but sometimes a relationship just jumps out at you. For me, I see how Cotton is a leading indicator for the stock market. Note how it declined prior to the current...

timwest Wizard

Today's rally puts ABX up into the target zone. Despite the volatility against the position at the start of the trade, this is a decent trade overall. Cheers. Tim Jun 1, 2012 11:19AM EST

timwest Wizard

WHY CAN'T SILVER RALLY??? Statements: 1. No one has any money 2. People are buying something else 3. People have changed their beliefs Responses to statements: 1. Recessions do weaken "excess funds" to speculate on stocks and commodities. 2. People are buying T-Bonds instead. 3. People are buying the idea that DEFLATION is in the future instead of...

timwest Wizard

I decided yesterday to post this idea as a PAIRS trade against a long position in CAT, but IR was the inspiration for the trade in the first place. I'd like to suggest that this is the proper way to draw regression channels as it is the only way that I have ever drawn them because it makes logical sense to me. The logic is that you diagram "uptrends" separate...

timwest Wizard

Heavy equipment maker IR (Ingersoll-Rand) has been outpacing CAT in the past year. The recent setback in CAT wasn't matched by a drop in the shares of IR and a spread has opened up in the performance of these two securities. I have played the short side of CAT and IR off and on for the past few months, but this way of setting up a trade between these two...

timwest Wizard

I believe this is just a rally back into resistance here on May 22, 2012 at 404.48 +11.15 or 2.83%. I will wait until tomorrow to short and I will look for a 410-415 IDEAL ENTRY LEVEL and will look for a 384-380 target. My stop will be 425-430. Just giving a heads up early. Cheers.

timwest Wizard

I view the chart of GOOG as vulnerable (again) to test the support level down at 570 to 550. The heavy resistance area on the chart is just 1.5% above current prices and the support level is down 7.0% for a 1:4 ratio of upside potential to downside potential. I will keep an eye on news as clearly the Facebook IPO is having a major effect on the trading in GOOG,...

timwest Wizard

Updated the previously published chart after the "buy the dip with a $2 stop loss" didn't pan out. With news released today about earlier than forecasted deliveries of the model-S electric car and a buy rating by Maxim Group, it made sense to update the chart and see where this chart stands. Note how the "RISING SUPPORT OVER TIME" comments are holding...

timwest Wizard

When I see this chart...(of the EURUSD daily, 1 year) It reminds me of a good old nursery rhyme that may or may not have anything to do with markets and psychology: But here it is anyway... "All the King's horses and all the King's men, couldn't put humpty together again" Perhaps the way to look at it is this: All the King's sellers and all the King's henchmen,...

timwest Wizard

I felt it was worthwhile to re-publish this chart (untouched) to outline how using tight stops can hurt you over time. Notice the gold market reached the generalized price in a similar, impulsive decline after another set-up where it was failing to rally despite a preponderance of bullish news. Recall back in September when QE3 out of the US and Europe failed...

timwest Wizard

Gold versus Oil Service stocks (OIH) since September of last year are nearly identical as money flows into and out of these sectors. Read the chart comments above. Cheers. Tim