timwest

timwest Wizard

ABX is deeply oversold and reversing up in a down market. See chart for notes. Tim 11:13AM EST Monday, May 14, 2012

timwest Wizard

For what it is worth: This is the ridiculous nature of markets - sometimes they just don't think for themselves and instead they act like sheep and follow another market, no matter where it goes. In this instance, the stock market here in the USA, together with the EuroCurrency (as measured by the FXE etf) and the Australian Dollar (as measured by the FXA etf)...

timwest Wizard

TLT - 20 Year US Gov't Bond ETF Notice all of the gap-UP green circles. I count 26 gap UPs versus 10 gap downs. This market has had a tremendous amount of "short-squeeze" to rally up to these levels. Also, the recent European market turmoil has led to "flight to safety" buying of US Treasuries. Notice how the rally pattern is indicative of a "euphoria for...

timwest Wizard

NFX - Basing Action Newfield Exploration is forming a bottom from a technical perspective. From a fundamental perspective, I view NFX as a way to participate on an oversold bounce in the energy market. The last nine months have seen selloffs and consolidations followed by new lows. The price action appears to have changed. The last rally indicates a low-risk...

timwest Wizard

CMG has broken below a key level of technical support at 421 where it had spend more than two weeks building a base. The support level broke on heavy volume and this selling zone has been retested on a light volume advance and is close to failing as of this analysis (failure is defined if CMG breaks under a previous day's low). You can see how low CMG would have...

timwest Wizard

The low price of natural gas and the falling price of WPRT which makes natural gas conversions for trucks and autos has my attention. This stock has come down a long way on some bad news and some competitive pressures, but what the chart is telling me is that the sellers are running dry and the buyers are lined up right under this price level. So, the...

timwest Wizard

I find this UNBELIEVABLE that AAPL has rallied from 380 to 640 without breaking below a previous five day session low (using ATR). That is an incredible advance and I will look around for other advances by other stocks or commodities that are this extreme. From a price perspective, this may be the most extreme percentage "one-way" move. By: Technical Tim, Fri,...

timwest Wizard

This is a purely technical guesstimate for how the market will advance given the pschological, sentiment, monetary, economic environment as I analyze it. The waves are just guesses based on market reactions to visible support and resistance levels. I "saved" this yesterday with the DIA at 128 and now with the market back up to 129.70, it appears that the support...

timwest Wizard

Gold is in a defined downtrend as noted on this chart. Today in China, the inflation rate came in higher than expected and could have led to a sizable market rally, but instead it has only led to a reflex rally that is currently holding under the optimal resistance area at 161 where there are 11 days of "market memory" or supply in this downtrend. Until GLD...

timwest Wizard

MCD is rallying back to the price level where the news was announced back in early March that the CEO was going to retire in June. Since that time, KO (Coca-Cola), BUD (Budweiser) and other global consumer non-cyclical stocks have made moves higher and the stock market has moved back up as well. MCD is rallying to catch back up from the bad news, but you can see...

timwest Wizard

This picture is worth a thousand words. It basically shows me that Alcoa's chart has been the rough equivalent to China's stock market, but with the added price volatility it is a leveraged play on FXI. This is simply "interesting" and thought you all would enjoy seeing this chart. By: Technical Tim, Monday, April 2, 2012 4:22PM EST

timwest Wizard

Comments are on the graph: I saved this chart last week and it is turning up from the red circle support zone I had outlined for myself. I like to see the chart pattern "wash-out" stop loss orders under previous correction lows to free up a stock from short term traders. Those declines set up very reasonable risk to great reward trades. I do like to see 3...

timwest Wizard

GM is trending up steadily and volume patterns indicate that buyers are far stronger than sellers. The sellers dried up at the $25 level and the buyers stepped up and got aggressive at the $25.50 level and gapped up GM to $26+. Buy any corrections and look for a 10% choppy rally over the month of April. Note how the volume dried on each successive price...

timwest Wizard

The mood created by this pattern is one normally associated with euphoria. Each sharp break leads to a new high and each sharp break is a little less than the previous. The net result is that the buyers have pushed the stock up to an unsustainable price that once it stops, it trips stops and then triggers a sharp decline to the bottom of the triangle formation. ...

timwest Wizard

The breakout of the base in TBT (which is a breakdown of the top in TLT) set up a rally to the projected target created from the measurement of the first green triangle you see on the chart. This breakout pattern could very well go another measured move from the breakout level projecting up to the "MAX TARGET" within 23 days from the breakout of the range labeled...

timwest Wizard

Re-entry short here in GG. The rally on Bernanke comments about ready-and-willing QE stimulus put a pop in GG shares. If you read the previous chart comments, you can see my thoughts on the decline and now that we have had a good rally on news, it will likely be a decent risk:reward entry for the continuation of the downtrend in GG shares and gold mining shares...

timwest Wizard

AMZN great example of relative down volume: This is from a chart I had saved back on March 8th. I didn't publish it, but I felt it was worth publishing now anyway just to show how I had analyzed the moves down and how investors were absorbing shares being sold and how it shows up in the chart. What a technical trader needs to look for is the amount of volume...

timwest Wizard

The strength in equities is forcing the hands of bond owners to lighten up on their overweighted positions. I believe it makes trading sense to sell rallies in TLT and with the latest 3 point move up from this Monday's low providing us with a reasonable risk/reward entry level. The risk is roughly 3 points and the reward roughly the same. I view 114 as a...