timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

The current market environment somewhat mimics the 1981 market: Why? The stock market rallied 31% from Nov 1979 to Nov 1980 on the optimism that Reagan would revolutionize the economy. The Reagan Revolution led to the Tax Cuts entitled "Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, An act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 to encourage economic growth through...

timwest Wizard Updated 

When we look at auto sales, do we adjust for the number of people in America? If you see the lower chart, you can see we are just over the trend in Light Vehicle sales. The trend is 16 million and we hit 18 million and backed off to 17 million recently. It sure looks like the number of cars sold "per person" in the USA is down dramatically over the last 40...

timwest Wizard

A little tongue in cheek here but clearly the end of the year has been a time when people have moved OUT OF short term treasuries and into other assets or durations.  The news has been covering how short term rates are at their highest levels in years here. I'm pulling up the chart and with the great indicator "MTPC" for "Multi-Time-Period-Charts" I was able to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a "pairs strategy" to go long $DIS and short $MAR over the course of the next 3-6 months AFTER earnings are released for $DIS on November 9th. I don't want to put you at risk for the current earnings report, but over the longer term, $DIS tends to correlate very highly to $MAR Marriott. $MAR has been on a straight line rally for many months now while...

timwest Wizard

Sometimes a picture tells you a powerful story - just like this one. The KEY HIDDEN LEVELS "Earnings Support and Resistance" lines show you in advance where important support and resistance is in a stock. Take a look at $UAL for example: Note how the green line broke to the downside, then retested before heading lower in a cascade of "Range Expansion"...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The TIME@MODE structure of the decline in the $EURUSD has put the market in a tight spot here sitting right on support. Why is it support? The current price is where the most volume has traded over the past few months, so it is the "resting place" where collectively the market is viewed as "balanced" and "fairly valued". Why is it a low risk buy? The market...

timwest Wizard Updated 

To get a a graph of the portfolio, I added the S&P500 and TLT together. But to keep them roughly equal I used 50% of the price of $SPY and 100% of the price of $TLT. I create the graph by typing the following into the symbol window: SPY*.5+TLT It shows also that the mood of the country might have been pretty bad going into the election since the combined...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Simply notice the 'inflation adjusted declines' of 1974 and 1982 and the overall 1970-1982 correction and compare them to the 2002 and 2007 decline from 2000-2009 and see what happened after. After two massive 50%+ declines, there doesn't "NEED" to be another massive wipeout for a long time. Investors do repeat patterns, so if they continue to repeat this...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The chart of $TSLA appeared to be falling without end in sight, but if you had short positions on from higher levels, you knew where to cover them - and that is right at the "EARNINGS LEVEL".  I believe it is essential to know where these levels are and I track them on every listed stock here on TradingView that I trade.  The EARNINGS LEVEL is the green triangle...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Each time there is a panic selloff and recovery, the buyers who stepped up to the plate and accumulated shares at a discount show that they are in control of the market. What happens when VIX or VXN spikes when the market falls? Well, sellers of options demand higher prices to compensate for higher risk or higher costs of taking a trade. Also, buyers of options...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I don't know what to make of this, but I found it on April 24th and I saved it as a private chart because I didn't think it was anything really of interest. It was just an observation and I've tried doing these lines with EARNINGS levels too, but I'm not one for trendlines in general because I don't believe people "THINK IN TRENDLINES". Now that almost another...

timwest Wizard Updated 

US DOLLAR INDEX - $DXY Has been trending on the 3-month time frame since 1996 and is in a 20-quarter uptrend that started in the 3rd quarter of 2014 and should continue until the end of the 2nd quarter of 2019. Note how the market consolidates for 9-quarters and then trends for 9 quarters before the trend ends, right on time. 1995 to 2000 rally set up a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Please refer to the other charts I have produced on this methodology. It takes a long time to put these charts together and then to explain them for clarity for you. Let's start from the beginning: 1. VIX is a measure of volatility of S&P500 options. If volatility rises, buyers of options are driving up options prices aggressively relative to weaker...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The "building blocks" method I call "Time@Mode" allows you to count time at the mode of the trend and use that time to count forward in time to have an idea of the duration of an advance (or decline). The "price range" around the "mode" of the trend is the measuring stick for the rally (or decline). So, you get both a time and price target to utilize. In...

timwest Wizard

Here is a quick diagram of the relationship of two of my favorite indicators combined with Gold. I've got to get this out to you now, and follow up later with more details. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words and sometimes I have to spell out the words, which may be the case with this one. Many worry that VIX is low, but low VIX is not a worrisome...

timwest Wizard

And now it is poised to drop. I would compare the current price advance to climbing to the highest point in a tree... There is nowhere to go but down from here. Or you can wait for the tree to grow. The Time@Mode structure of the Ethereum Bitcoin price reached the price projection on multiple time frames all within a short period of time. Time@Mode is a method...

timwest Wizard

$10,000 invested at $0.08 would grow to $1,000,000. This chart is an amazing run that everyone should have a look at. When we look at the chart of $BTCUSD or other monster gains in stocks or in any market, we often see 75% retracements and many 50% retracements, but only 1 50% retracement in this chart of $CSCO. I remember the top very well and not many could...

timwest Wizard

Time At Mode Methodology on display here in $RVLT (Revolution Lighting Technology) on a quarterly time frame. The quarterly downtrend started from the high of the chart and progressed downwards in logical fashion until the downtrend expired two quarters ago. The uptrend is emerging now that the price sits above the 6-quarter price zone marked in bright blue at...