timwest

timwest Wizard

The USD/Canadian Dollar has been bouncing between a base at 0.98-0.97 and massive resistance at 106-105-104 for the past 6 months. The price is quiet here against this 0.9900 level and it appears that the downside momentum is over for the time being. I can also imagine that investors have been hiding in the Canadian Dollar for the past few years as a resting...

timwest Wizard

SPY options expiration is highlighted by red circles around the closing prices each 3rd Friday of the month. These levels end up being support and resistance and I look for the market to respond at these levels. You can see that the last sell-off fell back to the two old expiration levels from last year. Granted, that is a long time ago but at least it looks...

timwest Wizard

Here is a simplified analysis of the rally from the October low. I break the chart down very simply, but I think very usefully to show that the market has two "time clocks". One clock counts the time at the last most-frequent consolidation and the other counts time from the low to the end of the last consolidation. You can see that we run out of "time" on the...

timwest Wizard

I have labeled support levels and resistance levels and I am looking for this level to hold here and for a rally back to $22 where I will gladly exit for a 10% gain. I believe the risk is less than the $2 potential reward that I see, but unless you buy put options to lock that in, there is no guarantee. If there is a drop to $19, then all the better as the...

timwest Wizard

I am stepping a little bit out onto a limb on this call, if only because HD has had such a strong, persistent advance from last fall. When you consider earnings for Home Depot peaked 7 years ago it is a good reminder that HD is a cyclical stock. Cyclical stocks tend to look great after big rallies and they look terrible on the charts going into bottoms. Well,...

timwest Wizard

$15.50 target by May: 9% rally potential. Downside risk 8% to $13. If you can be patient and get an entry under $14, then the odds improve but the quality of CODI allows me to accept current prices. The company is located in Westport, CT and although the stock is not liquid, it does provide a dividend of 10% at current distribution rates. Keep it on your...

timwest Wizard

See previous chart for additional comments. Cheers. Technical Tim, Tuesday, March 6, 2012 12:48PM EST

timwest Wizard

Here is just another way to look at how nicely WMT is positioned versus the overall market. The recent wave of news pushed WMT down to a decent level and the recent linear-rally in the overall market (perhaps dragged up by technology and oil shares) has a reasonable profit-potential sitting on the table. Upside: 5% in the next two weeks. Risk: 5%. By: ...

timwest Wizard

I added a new forecast onto the old commentary of GG from this past fall when I pointed out that GG is a trading stock and not a stock to buy and hold. So far the recent selloff has started the snowball rolling down the mountain from my perspective. I could see a slow, grinding decline through until summer. The "point of maximum optimism" is a price pattern...

timwest Wizard

Now that GM has cut back forecasts for the Volt, this may free up some attention for TSLA and its hot new electric car model coming out this year. The world may be saying that electric cars aren't for everyone, yet, but it appears that stockholders are steadily stepping up to the bar and loading up on shares. Time will tell if they can make a profit and deliver...

timwest Wizard

This is more of an entertaining chart comparison than anything but it does have a lesson in it. Isn't it strange how many markets just end up acting the same even though there is no reason for it? That's the beauty of raw data - we can find patterns in it that really aren't there. Causal or correlation is often the question but clearly there is no connection to...

timwest Wizard

A picture is worth a thousand words. With oil prices holding above $100 (instead of 90-100), we can either go long RDS.B by itself or pair it up with XOM as a short sale, $ for $. Pairs trading is commission and transaction intensive, but it is much less risk, if it is done properly. By: Technical Tim, 10:41AM EST, Friday, Feb 23

timwest Wizard

Basing action under $49 per share reveals a decent bottom pattern. The last two declines from the $52 area show a pattern of declining volume, which alerts me to a strengthening, accumulating stock. As the price lifts back up here it will need to get some volume going to confirm a bigger rally to the $55-$58 level and it will take some time to get through that...

timwest Wizard

This is the last day of trading for February options. The red circles are the expirations back to January 2011. You can see that the market is at its highest level here. The market jumped right through a multitude of expirations. I hope you all enjoy seeing the market visually displayed in a different way to reflect the most important price every 30 days or...

timwest Wizard

I heard this on a global news program: "All the gold in the world can fit inside of a baseball diamond, but yet its value is greater than all of the farmland in America or six Exxon-Mobil's. Which would you rather own? All of the Gold or all of the farmland in all of America or all of the energy resources of Exxon-Mobile? I will reflect on this "relative...

timwest Wizard

REPUBLISHING UNTOUCHED CHART from Nov 22, 2011: "NUAN is the provider of the Siri assistant to the Apple iPhone and broke out around the time of the release of the G4. Now it is in a retesting phase and is a lower-risk entry here. Notice how volume is lower on the decline than on the rally, signifying profit-taking by traders, and resting by long term investors....

timwest Wizard

This chart is COMPLETELY UNTOUCHED from its original publication a month ago. I added the RED "ENTRY" and "EXIT" circles to show the trade. Swiss Franc followers may look at this lift to a new breakout as a decent place to exit longs established against massive support down under the 104 level. I don't have any news to help justify the exit, but this is a...

timwest Wizard

Commentary: Keep in mind that the 50/200 day moving average cross system has had long periods of success and of failure and that we are coming off of a period when this method has worked very well. My only interest in creating this graph is to show you a different way of looking at the performance. Be wary of trying to "jump on" the performance of any system or...