timwest

timwest Wizard

A picture is worth a thousand words. With oil prices holding above $100 (instead of 90-100), we can either go long RDS.B by itself or pair it up with XOM as a short sale, $ for $. Pairs trading is commission and transaction intensive, but it is much less risk, if it is done properly. By: Technical Tim, 10:41AM EST, Friday, Feb 23

timwest Wizard

Basing action under $49 per share reveals a decent bottom pattern. The last two declines from the $52 area show a pattern of declining volume, which alerts me to a strengthening, accumulating stock. As the price lifts back up here it will need to get some volume going to confirm a bigger rally to the $55-$58 level and it will take some time to get through that...

timwest Wizard

This is the last day of trading for February options. The red circles are the expirations back to January 2011. You can see that the market is at its highest level here. The market jumped right through a multitude of expirations. I hope you all enjoy seeing the market visually displayed in a different way to reflect the most important price every 30 days or...

timwest Wizard

I heard this on a global news program: "All the gold in the world can fit inside of a baseball diamond, but yet its value is greater than all of the farmland in America or six Exxon-Mobil's. Which would you rather own? All of the Gold or all of the farmland in all of America or all of the energy resources of Exxon-Mobile? I will reflect on this "relative...

timwest Wizard

REPUBLISHING UNTOUCHED CHART from Nov 22, 2011: "NUAN is the provider of the Siri assistant to the Apple iPhone and broke out around the time of the release of the G4. Now it is in a retesting phase and is a lower-risk entry here. Notice how volume is lower on the decline than on the rally, signifying profit-taking by traders, and resting by long term investors....

timwest Wizard

This chart is COMPLETELY UNTOUCHED from its original publication a month ago. I added the RED "ENTRY" and "EXIT" circles to show the trade. Swiss Franc followers may look at this lift to a new breakout as a decent place to exit longs established against massive support down under the 104 level. I don't have any news to help justify the exit, but this is a...

timwest Wizard

Commentary: Keep in mind that the 50/200 day moving average cross system has had long periods of success and of failure and that we are coming off of a period when this method has worked very well. My only interest in creating this graph is to show you a different way of looking at the performance. Be wary of trying to "jump on" the performance of any system or...

timwest Wizard

I updated the data, but didn't change any of the forecast lines. The market is eerily tracing out the pattern.

timwest Wizard

Nice base pattern. Volume two days ago on the price breakout at $29 sets up a measured move to higher levels. Risk: 3 pts risk (3 x's average daily range of roughly $1) Reward: Upside potential of $3-$4 up to $32-$33 area. Today's weaker than expected GDP results barely dented US Steel Corp's stock price. I like that the bad news helped "X" return to its...

timwest Wizard

Jan 26, 2012 UPDATE: The last trade didn't generate an "entry" signal, so I am simply updating the chart. What I have done is to shift the price forecast over to the end of CY 2011and the price action is mimicking the action somewhat closely. It certainly looks like the bond bulls are cornered and they are stuck in their bonds. What you will see is every...

timwest Wizard

AMZN has a very nice base formation that is looking better as each day passes. The pattern you see labeled here is a "wipe-out" pattern that shifts psychology severely to the negative perspective. Notice how many drops and violations of previous lows there are in this chart. The "manic-depressive" nature of the swings wrings out most players from the stock, but...

timwest Wizard

ANR is about to squeeze into the end of this tightening consolidation/base. I am guessing it will be a base, but I am simply looking at how the stock has fallen a long way from 60 to 16 and expectations for coal prices may be low enough now to allow for upside surprise. Note also that volume in the last decline in price under $20 was absorbed by the market and...

timwest Wizard

VIX as one of my favorite indicators since it is real money and it is not able to be manipulated or distorted. There is no time lag to collect advisory opinion or to wait for open interest reports the next day. But the more you learn about any indicator, the more you will realize you can't have a "Holy Grail", but you can at least wait for the odds to stack up...

timwest Wizard

Massive base formation from 26 - 20 should allow for a 6-12 month rally to 32. High frequency trading at 24 - 23 signals strong support at that level. US Gov't investment is a negative but it is widely known and therefore, discounted. I view $24-$23 as a level that is the lowest risk price zone to buy shares, but I doubt AIG will get back to that price zone. ...

timwest Wizard

This is an outline for a model for a price pattern that I found back in 1990 while I was the technical analyst for a Wall Street Institutional Brokerage Firm. I simply called it "The Point of Maximum Pessimism" because this progression of price action just seems to create the psychology that is present at a major market bottom. I just stumbled onto this chart...

timwest Wizard

Options expiration is this Friday, the third Friday of the month. This chart graphically displays the expiration price with a line at each expiration going back to Feb of 2011 and a circle around the closing price. The interesting perspective that options expirations provide is that it represents the price at which the most people have hedged and protected their...

timwest Wizard

Here is how I see the XLE (Energy Shares ETF) for the next few months. I view this rally as a test of resistance and a place to begin shorting on a scale from 70-72-74 with a 76 stop. I view 64-62-60 as key support as shown on the graph. I believe that going long makes sense once the entire short position is covered. I will update and keep you all posted as...

timwest Wizard

I like to see trendlines break to see if that flushes out the weak holders. What I can see here is that AMZN did clearly break this long term trend and has had plenty of bad news lately. I believe this may be a low risk entry on the long-side with a definable risk (always 3 average daily ranges) and plenty of upside potential. I think AMZN is a reasonable buy...