timwest

timwest Wizard

From the chart I published here on October 14th () highlighting the historical rhythm of the SPY and TLT and how the markets were positioned to move from TLT back to SPY, the SPY rallied 8% in the following 2 weeks while the TLT fell 5% for a net performance gain of 13%. Since the end of October, that performance disappeared, and is now building again to a 4% spread.

timwest Wizard

I have marked up the chart for TLT in the last hour to point out the key levels and position of the market. It is somewhat rare to get a market that gaps up like TLT did at the end of October and then just sits there in a tight range. I believe it is a sign that the market is tired and that there are very few buyers up here and it appears as if the short-sellers...

timwest Wizard

I am merely pointing out the base formation here and the resistance area overhead in AIG. You can see it is right in the middle between the bottom of the base near $22 (down $1.80) and the resistance at $26 (up $2.20). So, I don't have a recommendation at this time but I will if it gets either closer to the bottom of the base or higher near resistance. The...

timwest Wizard

Amazon is breaking down from a bear flag pattern which occurred with falling volume. The high volume decline in October found support at the gap around the $200 level. Next support levels at $190 and $180. Amazon is down with a down market, but it was weak the past few days when the overall market was strong. AMZN is so expensive, like MSFT, DELL, KO, AMGN and...

timwest Wizard

I think this is a good time to cover short positions established the Friday before when the news was EUPHORIC AND when the market was right up into significant overhead resistance. Now we are down on news of Italy and exaggerated (perhaps) fears and the market is down to a key level of support where we saw UPSIDE GAPS and UPSIDE REVERSALS a few weeks ago. Plus,...

timwest Wizard

Reverse position and Go Short, risk a rally to $30.5. This rally is overbought dramatically and I expect to see the largest reaction to this price level than we have seen in the entire rally. There is strong enough resistance here from the buyers who took on positions on the way down who will want to get out at break-even now that ANR has returned to near the...

timwest Wizard

Silver has had a rebound from deeply oversold back in late September. On Friday, September 23 Silver had fallen from $39/oz down to $30/oz in just two days. The next day, Monday, Sep 26, SLV opened UNDER $28 and has not fallen below $28 since then. The high of the rebound is slightly over $34. However, this rally is weaker than you would expect given all of...

timwest Wizard

Refer to the chart and previous NUAN chart.

timwest Wizard

Corn is not a liquid etf, but it is a good reference for the price of Corn Futures as they use a basket of futures in their portfolio. I view the larger picture as a broadening top formation, which occurs after a long advance. I think it is useful to look at markets that move differently than the stock market, just to round out your perspective. Often, high...

timwest Wizard

Greetings: Whenever I find any pattern that seems to repeat itself too many times, that is when I get suspicious and begin to imagine that the market will do something different. What I see here in AMZN is a continuous pattern of "FALSE BREAKS" of previous reaction lows which makes traders think that every break is a buying opportunity. AMZN just had such a...

timwest Wizard

This is an update from my last 4cast made on Sep 25, 2011 here at TradingView. At that time I pointed out KEY SUPPORT at 101.5-100.5 but upon closer examination there were 20 weeks of time at 104 also and you can see in October that 104 was tested and held. What has also happened is that 20 weeks of time has built at the 112 level and that implies that the...

timwest Wizard

Sell short the EuroCurrency: This appears to be an inside-day which is a set-up for a short sale. Sell breaking under today's low on Monday or simply go short now with a stop over Thursday's high (or 3 average ranges or 3.5 points up from your entry). This almost euphoric rally has put the Euro right back into the HEAVY area of distribution from May through...

timwest Wizard

See chart above.

timwest Wizard

Sell short on this reaction rebound from the lows made on earnings day. Stop loss $226. Target new lows. Ideal entry $215-$216.

timwest Wizard

ABT broke out of it multi-year range last week and pulled back this week to retest and re-gather, giving market makers a chance to buy back stock sold short at higher levels. The pullback didn't fully close the gap from the news announcement last Tuesday about ABT splitting into two companies to unlock the value in shares. NOTE: This is the way that companies...

timwest Wizard

This is an update to the last chart I published on GG. I think it makes sense to sell now as nerves are high on European banking issues and we have cleared the top of the last rally high. There is strong resistance just overhead here with the GAP labeled in a red circle. I will wait to short on a break of a previous day's low.

timwest Wizard

Upside potential still remains to 115 from this 111-107 base pattern. The odds for this trade get much better as you approach the base at 111 for an entry, however, the odds are a roughly 50/50 here as the upside is 2.7 points and the downside is 2.3 points. With all of the problems with European banks, why not have some exposure to the safest banking system in...

timwest Wizard

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is poised for a move up out of this consolidation, triangle formation. Upside potential 10% or so, based on the last two rallies. Downside risk to $61 or 4%.