timwest

timwest Wizard

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is poised for a move up out of this consolidation, triangle formation. Upside potential 10% or so, based on the last two rallies. Downside risk to $61 or 4%.

timwest Wizard

So, I'm just merely pointing out here that there is a setup where AMZN hasn't made a new high in 5-days and therefore, you could sell breaking below a previous day's low and then use a trailing stop above the previous day's high. See for yourself. I have graphed a number of examples going back to December. You can wait for a 52-week high to begin this method or...

timwest Wizard

Amazon has my attention: I have labeled the "3RD LOW" since February on the chart to show you how to define when a strong up-trend is no longer in place. The entry technique with this method is to sell breaking the 3rd low with a stop over the high. However, that has already occured. The stop is now at 245 with that method, which is quite wide at roughly 4-5%....

timwest Wizard

Take a note of this strange pattern in AMZN. There is a sharp selloff from a high that you can connect with a straight line over the past 6 months. Almost as if a seller is using new highs to liquidate a big position. I've never drawn a trendline like this before, but the pattern jumps out at me especially today because AMZN has such poor relative strength to...

timwest Wizard

I have assembled this chart to graphically display and highlight the close of the SPY on options expiration day. Options expiration is the third Friday over every month. Most charts only show calendar months, but I think this is an effective way to look at market action. The circles have a 2 point diameter, which is roughly the average daily range of the SPY...

timwest Wizard

Note the distribution zone graphed on the chart from 47 to 56. This is where long term holders liquidated their shares. It may be tempting to buy shares here for a retest of the GAP around 49-51, representing a 10%-15% gain from current prices, with risk at the $43 level or 3%. I have made some cautionary comments about the company's unimpressive financial...

timwest Wizard

I think that CVX is over-extended here at $103.69 on this rally from the 87 level up to 104. There were strong sellers that emerged at these levels back in April, May, June, July & August. Look for a retest of the $100-$98 support level with risk to $106+. I liked getting long crude oil when prices were down near $80 per barrel, but now that prices are back...

timwest Wizard

A picture is worth more than a thousand words. The last six years of the SP500 versus T-Bonds (using SPY for the S&P500 and TLT to represent bond exposure) shows many cycles that would have made plenty of money had you moved money back and forth in order to keep a balanced portfolio of these two assets. Look closely at the weekly chart which shows that it has...

timwest Wizard

This weekly chart goes back 5 years to 2006 and reveals an illiquid and volatile stock. There are many 15% and 20% ranges in one week. The breakout to all time highs from a multi-year base pattern from 23 down to under 7 is a positive sign especially amidst a market that is struggling. The story about NUAN relates to voice-recognition software related to the...

timwest Wizard

260-210 accumulation zone and on top of that there is a 288-260 accumulation zone which was tested in August and again in October. But now there is a defensive, if not "distributive" appearance to the chart of MA. The large swings up and down from 340 down to 300 suggest a large seller has been dumping a significant position. The rally here from 295 to 330...

timwest Wizard

Parabolic decline from the peak at $67 to the low near $15 has left ANR ripe for a rebound. The last base of accumulation from $55-$32 broke in September and it cascaded into a rush for the exits and drove the stock to its low near $15. I suggest that $17.50 shouldn't be revisited if this new uptrend stays in place and that there is upside to fill some price...

timwest Wizard

The downward sloping trendline that I have drawn and placed arrows above the three touchpoints. I use the "HIGHEST LOW" to draw the line instead of the "highest high" in the rally. Why? Because that gives an earlier heads up when a turn is happening. Call it a "technical-tim-trendline", but otherwise it is an "internal trendline". The logic and the reasoning...

timwest Wizard

So far, so good. The forecast is moving along as the deflation story begins to fade. The ultimate test for this market will be the reaction to the 112-110 support and trendline area. Stay posted.

timwest Wizard

Yahoo is in a new uptrend and with the company in the headlines for potential acquisition, the call options are carrying a higher level of interest which is pushing up the price. I believe it is a good time to sell those calls against holding shares of YHOO, which I feel are at a reasonably low valuation overall. I feel that a 6% return in the course of 2 weeks...

timwest Wizard

Rally into resistance - setting up for a retest of the lows of the last week. Trend is firmly down on this time frame, but the risk is to 228-232 for a stop loss and potential to 200-196 on the downside.

timwest Wizard

The obvious pattern here is a major breakout from an 8-month "cup&handle" accumulation pattern that implied a rally to 119 based on the 112-105 correction of 7 points. However, TIP fell short of hitting the target and now appears to have broken its short term upside momentum. I would use any further upside to sell, leaning against 116 as key resistance and using...

timwest Wizard

A short term trade where AMZN has rallied into levels where sellers have emerged three times in the past 6 sessions. 234 stop loss for 1/2 position, 238 stop on 2nd 1/2 position. Target initially 220, then 216. This is a 3:1 reward/risk trade and it has 40% probability of working. The "SELLERS EMERGE" levels are key supply levels and represent a seller dumping...

timwest Wizard

BRK.A has compounded at a healthy 12.5% return since the beginning of 1990. Given that Buffet will spend down his cash hoard of $50 billion down to a level of $20 billion to buy back his stock, I felt compelled to compare his returns to other companies considered leaders in their field from 20+ years ago. Other charts will follow: ABT, KO, MCD, MSFT, JNJ and...