timwest

timwest Wizard

In hindsight: Notice how a simple company like McCormick (the spice company - who doesn't have McCormick in their kitchen?) has quietly gone from $5 in late 1989 to near $50 in late 2011. That is a 10-fold return or 1000% return (excluding plenty of dividends along the way) in less than 22 years. That works out to an 11% compound rate of return. MKC also paid...

timwest Wizard

In this diagram I am showing how 20 weeks of time at one price has marked important levels in the past. After 20 weeks of time had built at the 80-81 level in the bear market and THEN once the market climbed above it and held, it was the start of a major 20-week rally. Then another 20 weeks of time built at 100.5-101.5 in late 2009 into mid-2010 and that setup...

timwest Wizard

I am presenting the Dow Jones Industrials by way of the DIA etf. The market could very well find its way back down to what I view as the most critical amount of "time-at-a-price", which occurs at any level where there is 20 weeks of market time (within the weekly high-low price range) at any given price. You can see clearly that from the bottom in 2009 at 72 up...

timwest Wizard

Read the previous chart from Sep 15 which is on this chart. I added the green boxes to update the chart, but everything else is the same. Also note the chart of Gold (GLD) where the pattern also appeared. There were many fundamental reasons for this break in price. If the world can escape a deflationary collapse, then silver and gold will find a level of...

timwest Wizard

Best Buy (BBY) is WASHED OUT at these levels. I see a LOWER-RISK opportunity to go LONG now. Why? If Best Buy (BBY) didn't fall on Thursday when the indexes took a beating of 5%, then the sellers are tired here. There are plenty of sellers up at $28 to $32+ (see large green box from April thru July), so I am not expecting anything much more than to test this...

timwest Wizard

Update to FXE (EuroCurrency ETF). Only 2 entry levels were reached in the rally to 138.50+, so only a half-position is on. The stop should be lowered, as per comments, to 141 from 143. The target box is unchanged from last week, but I changed the color to green from blue. The blue boxes are last weeks comments. The financial system continues on its downward...

timwest Wizard

ABT is very close to making all time highs. The stock has been holding in a range for more than a few years. ABT is still working off the excessive valuations that were reached in the late 1990's. Sales and earnings have steadily advanced over the past 10 years to bring valuations back down to more earthly levels. If a breakout above $55.20 occurs, then look...

timwest Wizard

$90-$89 level is where strong sellers emerged. Expect more selling to cap advances. Sell short here $88+ and cover at $83-$82. Stop loss $89.5-$90.5.

timwest Wizard

Exxon-Mobil is stuck between a major top and a major bottom. Strong buyers accumulated shares under the $62 level and motivated sellers distributed shares above $78. There was a 30% return for those buyers in a very short period of time and it would seem that was a very solid rate of return. Those buyers are likely to put this trade back on at gently higher...

timwest Wizard

Amazon has rallied from 40 to 240, up six-fold from the 2009 low. While the rest of the world thinks gold is a good "investment", and while budgets strain across the world, AMZN continues to generate cash flow and leverage the capability of the internet. We all know the "market" is sideways for 10 years, but if you had a few stocks like this in your portfolio...

timwest Wizard

Bonds (20 year bonds in this ETF) are vulnerable only because this has been such a significant advance. So it is wise to look for trouble or a reason to continue holding such an investment with such a 'low expected return.' I am simply attempting to find the time when it makes sense to go short this market. I am NOT, by any means, a "technical only" trader as my...

timwest Wizard

SCHW has been tossed into the trash with the "bank" stocks and now it appears that the sellers are done. When the trend exhausts itself and the sellers run out of stock to sell, then what happens is each decline in price has less power or volume. Since the sellers "initiate" the transaction and the buyers "receive" the seller, the price falls until there are...

timwest Wizard

CSCO is apparently breaking out of an accumulation zone from $16.24 down to $13.30. The breakout occurred at a price level which leaves CSCO between support at $15.40, down $1.30, and resistance at $17.40, up $0.80. So even though the trend looks constructive it has more risk than reward. One way to make the odds work in your favor is to wait for a pullback to...

timwest Wizard

GM has an interesting trade setup: This is either a setup for a rally after its prolonged selloff or just a resting place before the next downleg occurs. The #1 selloff consumed 5 days. The #2 was 4 days. The #3 was 3 days. And now the downtrend line is close to being violated (if it closes above it) and a rebound is possible. The risk is to the 3-day low or...

timwest Wizard

"All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't get silver to rally again." How is it that this market could NOT muster enough buying interest to move to new highs amidst so much potentially bullish news? SLV and all of its sister etf's that own silver or silver derivatives should be tested in the coming days and weeks and months. This situation of "no...

timwest Wizard

What is MOST interesting to me about GLD here is it has faied to attract new buyers at a time of near panic as measured by VIX reading above 40 which happened concurrently with fears about the solvency of European banks, ratings agenciy downgrades and announcements to throw more debt onto the back of most developed nation's economies. Obama's fiscal stimulus...

timwest Wizard

The EuroCurrency ETF is deeply oversold in a new, solid downtrend. The way to structure trades in this market is to wait for a rally back toward the low-risk RESISTANCE AREA marked on the chart from from 140-145. Enter shorts starting at 138, 138.50, 139, 139.50 and use a 143 stop initially. Once 136 is violated then reduce stops to 141. The fundamental...

timwest Wizard

The chart is suggesting either this recent distribution from the $600 level back down to the $500 level is either stage 1 of a bigger decline to break under the last 52-weeks worth of trading OR I will consider this an accumulation level if prices don not begin to decline under the $480 level in the next 5 weeks. There is a good chance also that a weak,...