timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Long term chart pattern followers will love this breakout pattern in Skywest ($SKYW) shares. Shares didn't breakout on major volume, but sellers didn't step in and drive down shares, so low volume isn't necessarily a problem, but I will still keep an eye on it if we see heavy volume on the downside. Now that we have seen December and January have a much higher...

timwest Wizard Updated 

It looks like the long term downtrend is ending here: There is a lot of consensus that the Trump Presidency will crush emerging markets by way of the destruction of trading partnerships and new trade wars. But that post-election decline has fully retraced AND with all of the fears of euphoria in the US with equity prices at all time highs and appearing extended...

timwest Wizard Updated 

$GRPN reports February 9th and currently analysts expect a loss of 2 cents for the quarter. It is useful to see what the stock has done in the last 5 quarters: There were 2 rallies and 3 drops. Each was quite violent. Groupon is not "cash flow positive" but given that online sales may have been much stronger than "bricks-and-mortar" (like $KSS, $M, $JWN, etc),...

timwest Wizard

At $46.3 last in $AAL you are looking at 15% or so in earnings yield using $1.25 for April 2016 $1.77 for July 2016 $2.80 for October 2016 $0.92 for January 2017 --------------- $6.74 in earnings / $46.3 last for AAL shares 14.55% yield. ---------------- I like how this chart is displaying the earnings at each quarter's "Key Earnings Level" so you can see which...

timwest Wizard Updated 

There is one useful way to determine when a trend is over and that is using a 50% "speedline" of a move. The decline from $400 in $IBB, the IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund back in July 2015 and then tumbled 40% to $240 on February 9th, 2016 and later retested $240 on June 27, 2016. The mid-point of that decline is $320 and a line drawn from...

timwest Wizard Updated 

95% occupancy $1600 avg rent 62% margins 13 markets 3700 homes in each market 97% of markets has over 2000 homes All rehab teams are in the market. Buy, renovate, rent. COMPETITION: American Homes for Rent Colony Starwood INVH is Part of the American Rental Housing Council Provide a consistent experience for renters Create best practices John Bartling,...

timwest Wizard

What is wrong with $TLT these days? The TLT is lagging far behind where it ought to be, as measured by the 10-year and the 30-year Treasury Note&Bond Futures. Why is that? It could very well be a sign of some dislocation, or a liquidity issue within the market. It could also be an opportunity to sell the futures ($ZBH2017, $ZNH2017) and buy the cash market...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Inflation: Inflation matters. Why? Look at the two charts here and you will see why inflation matters. Over time, inflation changes the "real price" of the things we buy by dramatic amounts. What everyone saw in 1980's Presidential Election was a big breakout in price above the major top extending back a decade. What really had happened though over the previous...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I will quickly publish this chart to show you the long term uptrend in the $USDCAD appears to be over. The downtrend is in play here and the risk to be wrong is very low, while the potential for gains is quite high. The long term trendline is broken and the $USDCAD is sitting on a level where a tremendous amount of volume and time has been spent at $1.31. Risk...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I'd like to walk you through time here and show you the structure that is evident in the US Dollar. From the August time frame a downtrend set up and formed at 10-day mode around the 95.50 level and set up the decline to the low near 94.08 on Aug 18th, which only took 3-days to complete the price move. Once the low was set on August 18th, an uptrend started and...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Intel is trying to breakout, but there's not much volume to push it along. Today's high above the previous highs going back to January 2001 were breached, but then the close didn't hold above the breakout level. All eyes may be on $INTC over the weekend since it made new highs. On the shorter-term daily chart, the volume was swelling quite a bit, but on the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Gold has rallied up to a level that is an old trading range from last year from February to June. In summer, Gold jumped out of that range and moved up another 10% before sliding back down into year end. Market's remember old price levels and those folks who entered the gold market last year didn't really have a chance to get out of their positions. The...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Notice how Target tends to fall and signal a weak economy, which is picked up in the Bond market with falling rates (Bonds rise when rates fall - this is a chart of yields). There are 3 white-box areas that show the pattern. You can see it is a very reliable and useful pattern. This time around, however, that signal is not transmitting through in the markets....

timwest Wizard Updated 

BUY STOCKS, INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, NOT THE MARKET. But I explain this at the end. First, thanks to TradingView user russ.brown.52 for putting up your long term trendlines chart on the DJIA. I decided to add some internal trendlines (in green) that capture the movement within the extremes of price. You can see that those internal trendlines are just under the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

$PBF energy is in the refining business and is a little-known company based out of Parsippany, NJ that has a new CEO in the last year and has faced plenty of challenges with operating its refineries. Despite those challenges, you can see that $PBF has "FREE CASH FLOW" of $331 million for the last 12 months. The market cap of PBF is $2.33 billion, and throw in...

timwest Wizard Updated 

2017 FORECAST - S&P500 INDEX - Daily Here we are again: January of a new year. The election is behind us. And the recount is behind us too. So many bombs dropped over the last year, both real bombs and word-bombs by Presidential candidates. The word-bombs seem to get all of the attention with Trump winning the "best word bomber" last year by Time Magazine as...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I put trendlines on here that have SIGNIFICANT touch-points along the last 45+ years of market action. I also highlighted in bright green where there was a dip below the highest of the MAJOR 20+ year trendline to show how the market accumulated below those prices and regrouped for the latest rally. Do "trends" really work in this manner? Are there really...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Going back to 1980....Obama's performance (S&P500 vs Gold) was the smallest change over 8 years, which describes the very lackluster economic performance we have seen in the US over the last 8 years. George Bush Junior had the same performance in 8 years (roughly) as Carter had in 4 years, almost -75%. I would add that Bush inherited the leverage in the banking...