timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Some thoughts for all of us this morning: What is important in life is not to be right, but to be pleasant to deal with, because we are all going to be wrong a lot in life. The biggest losers are driven by being right because inevitably they put on their biggest positions when they want to be right and miss an important fact or overlook risk somewhere. So...

timwest Wizard Updated 

With the S&P500 ($SPY) at 215.04 last as of Friday, October 7, 2016, you can see the price of various options. I started at 215 which is "at the money" and the prices above that are the call options, since those are "out of the money". I made the call options green, since they are for upside price action. I then graphed the put options prices from 215 and down...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The S&P500-0.05% , as viewed from the world by adjusting the S&P500-0.05% by the US Dollar-0.08% , had its 4th BEAR MARKET since the peak in 1999. I said "HAD" because the current rally has broken the 50% speed line of the decline, which is a simple way to measure the end of any trend. The world may not exactly look at the market this way, but since the...

timwest Wizard

When you see the pattern of price action going into the Presidential Election, you can see a pattern of massive selling. The "Range Expansion Declines" are highlighted in YELLOW TRIANGLES on the chart to show you when there are movements in the market DOWN by an amount GREATER THAN THE PREVIOUS MONTH'S RANGE. What you can see here is that there is a major power...

timwest Wizard

Using a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections. The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I define a spike to be when the VIX jumps by 5 points and then retraces by 75%. Once that spike has retraced, it creates a floor of support for the market for future pullbacks to hold. We have two of those levels from May and July which the market is pulling back to at this juncture. The September spike has failed to hold, which is the 18,000 level. Typically...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Crude Oil is on a new 15-week bull trend signal here using the "Time At Mode" methodology. There are two likely outcomes from what the accumulation below $46 for 15 weeks is telling us. You can count 15 weeks of time that touch the $46 price level across this chart in the large white box labeled "ACCUMULATION". Once we have broken free of that accumulation,...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Let's look at the monthly chart of the S&P500 by way of the SPY (S&P500 ETF). What we see here is a pattern that shows how a market moves and how to read those movements. These are the tracks left behind by the transactions in the market. If a seller jumps aggressively into the market and "hits the bid" (the buyer), then the price is forced down. If that buyer...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Whatever your opinion of gold is at the moment, the market is afraid to move outside of the KEY BREXIT LEVEL from 1250-1358. Sure that is a wide range to operate in, but that level has contained the market since June 28th. The "Highest Low" hasn't been outside that range yet and the "Lowest High" hasn't either. The giant bi-distribution pattern around $1255...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Delta has a very constructive fundamental valuation (see the bottom half of the chart) and a very constructive "accumulated position" on the charts to suggest "Blue Skies Ahead" for further gains in $DAL. Fundamentally, you can see $DAL has $3.6 billion in "free cash flow" which is the real cash return you would earn if you owned the company outright (which is a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

My last Elliott Wave guess for Tesla was two years ago and published here at TradingView. It was a brave effort to forecast far into the future and was bearish at the time, looking for a drop to 193. See the link below for reference. The updates relate to going back to 2006 as the top of wave 1 since that was when the Roadster was sold. The Model-S in 2012...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I keep a unique price calculation which shows me what the mood of any market is and it is flashing now that we have 85% of the decline needed to create a major bottom in the stock market. But what is fascinating is that normally a drop of this indicator by the amount that it has dropped would normally happen if the market dropped 9%-15% and yet it has only...

timwest Wizard Updated 

In previous charts I have published here reveal the powerful pattern of VIX spikes of greater than 5 points followed by 75% retracements which highlights when big money interests are accumulating shares from panicky sellers in heightened volatility markets. The "strong hands" buyers calm the market and absorb the selling pressure and drive down volatility in...

timwest Wizard Updated 

This ratio proves that Central Banks are reacting to what the markets are telling them and they have responded. The Bank of Japan on Friday was the latest to fire up the engines. Earlier this week, France and Sweden cut rates to less than zero to get people to start investing their money (and stop "sitting on it"). The announcement by the BOJ that it would also...

timwest Wizard Updated 

When the S&P500 Outperforms Lumber by 60% in a 1-3 year time window, it has tended to mark important stock market peaks in 3 of the last 4 instances. The first was in 1995 and the stock market was in a full fledged blast-off stage and didn't look back, but the next 3 signals led to a 12% drop, then the 2001 peak and the 2007 peak in the equity market. Who...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Q: What is the "KEY LEVEL" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and why does it exist? A: It is the price level where each component of the index REPORTS EARNINGS and its OUTLOOK for the coming quarter. There are 4 times a year when we KNOW THE MOST about a stock and that is when the company reports its earnings for the most recent quarter and then they provide...

timwest Wizard Updated 

If silver spikes UP when VIX surges, then the silver market tends to peak, but if silver DROPS when VIX surges, it tends to market the BOTTOM for silver. We have a potential bottom here using this analogue. I'm not a 200 bar moving average aficionado, but it touched that long term level in this pullback. You can see that there was Key Accumulation from...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Follow up from my last publication on this phenomenon from 8 months ago. When VIX falls 75% after a spike-run up of at least 5 points, it sets a foundation of buying support that often holds when revisited or retested. This is a unique and powerful observation. The last foundation level of support in the SPY is 209-204-199. That covers a wide range, but it is...