timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

When there are 2 Uptrends (see green arrows) and 2 Downtrends (see red arrows), you have a TRIANGLE. And when you have 2 failed trends and you are still in the same range, you have an EXPANDING TRIANGLE (see the blue polygon) This makes for a very confusing time period. Which way will it go? We have to wait for the market to tell us. For now it is chopping all...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Stop loss under the last consolidation from 629-605. 748 last. The Bitcoin market has been moving in a rather orderly pattern over the past couple of years as it bursts from one level of trading to another before settling down for many months and then bursting to another level. The percentage range of the "settling down" or "consolidation" ranges has reduced...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Tesla is difficult to value and the opinions are very strong on both sides of the argument of how TSLA is valued. The valuation is dropping fast, that is for sure. Given how sales have skyrocketed from nearly zero to $3 billion has dropped the PSR from over 20 on a few occasions to under 10 for this year 2015. Tesla is losing money as they invest in their...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Using the DJIA exchange traded portfolio $DIA, I am graphing the generalized 2-week quiet period in BRIGHT GREEN and the bulk majority of the earnings release dates in BRIGHT YELLOW so you can see when the market is discounting important, new information and when it has NO INFORMATION about new fundamentals. If I could grab all institutional upgrades and graph...

timwest Wizard

Silver is giving us a signal for a trade setup here this week. The signal is from the fact that silver consolidated around the $19.25 level for 9 weeks (start counting on the week it hit its high) and then accelerated down from that mode at $19.25 and has now FALLEN FOR 9 WEEKS (as of last Friday). That means that the 9-weeks of distribution that happened up top...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Some thoughts for all of us this morning: What is important in life is not to be right, but to be pleasant to deal with, because we are all going to be wrong a lot in life. The biggest losers are driven by being right because inevitably they put on their biggest positions when they want to be right and miss an important fact or overlook risk somewhere. So...

timwest Wizard Updated 

With the S&P500 ($SPY) at 215.04 last as of Friday, October 7, 2016, you can see the price of various options. I started at 215 which is "at the money" and the prices above that are the call options, since those are "out of the money". I made the call options green, since they are for upside price action. I then graphed the put options prices from 215 and down...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The S&P500-0.05% , as viewed from the world by adjusting the S&P500-0.05% by the US Dollar-0.08% , had its 4th BEAR MARKET since the peak in 1999. I said "HAD" because the current rally has broken the 50% speed line of the decline, which is a simple way to measure the end of any trend. The world may not exactly look at the market this way, but since the...

timwest Wizard

When you see the pattern of price action going into the Presidential Election, you can see a pattern of massive selling. The "Range Expansion Declines" are highlighted in YELLOW TRIANGLES on the chart to show you when there are movements in the market DOWN by an amount GREATER THAN THE PREVIOUS MONTH'S RANGE. What you can see here is that there is a major power...

timwest Wizard

Using a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections. The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I define a spike to be when the VIX jumps by 5 points and then retraces by 75%. Once that spike has retraced, it creates a floor of support for the market for future pullbacks to hold. We have two of those levels from May and July which the market is pulling back to at this juncture. The September spike has failed to hold, which is the 18,000 level. Typically...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Crude Oil is on a new 15-week bull trend signal here using the "Time At Mode" methodology. There are two likely outcomes from what the accumulation below $46 for 15 weeks is telling us. You can count 15 weeks of time that touch the $46 price level across this chart in the large white box labeled "ACCUMULATION". Once we have broken free of that accumulation,...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Let's look at the monthly chart of the S&P500 by way of the SPY (S&P500 ETF). What we see here is a pattern that shows how a market moves and how to read those movements. These are the tracks left behind by the transactions in the market. If a seller jumps aggressively into the market and "hits the bid" (the buyer), then the price is forced down. If that buyer...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Whatever your opinion of gold is at the moment, the market is afraid to move outside of the KEY BREXIT LEVEL from 1250-1358. Sure that is a wide range to operate in, but that level has contained the market since June 28th. The "Highest Low" hasn't been outside that range yet and the "Lowest High" hasn't either. The giant bi-distribution pattern around $1255...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Delta has a very constructive fundamental valuation (see the bottom half of the chart) and a very constructive "accumulated position" on the charts to suggest "Blue Skies Ahead" for further gains in $DAL. Fundamentally, you can see $DAL has $3.6 billion in "free cash flow" which is the real cash return you would earn if you owned the company outright (which is a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

My last Elliott Wave guess for Tesla was two years ago and published here at TradingView. It was a brave effort to forecast far into the future and was bearish at the time, looking for a drop to 193. See the link below for reference. The updates relate to going back to 2006 as the top of wave 1 since that was when the Roadster was sold. The Model-S in 2012...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I keep a unique price calculation which shows me what the mood of any market is and it is flashing now that we have 85% of the decline needed to create a major bottom in the stock market. But what is fascinating is that normally a drop of this indicator by the amount that it has dropped would normally happen if the market dropped 9%-15% and yet it has only...

timwest Wizard Updated 

In previous charts I have published here reveal the powerful pattern of VIX spikes of greater than 5 points followed by 75% retracements which highlights when big money interests are accumulating shares from panicky sellers in heightened volatility markets. The "strong hands" buyers calm the market and absorb the selling pressure and drive down volatility in...