tomasz.goljan

tomasz.goljan

Simple EUR/USD chart with options expiry levels, red circle marks higher lows which should lead to another 1,249-1,25 ressistance zone test. Decent GBP data from Euro Zone should help the upside scenario. Mld stands for Bln ~

tomasz.goljan

Just an simple chart with options expiry levels and pivot points with 2 simple moving avg. Yesterdays rally was impresive yet it was all done on a thin market with USA holidays so I'd not be focused on that move. Also the hourly rejections at 1,25 looks awfull for bulls if You take a look at yesterdays shooting star and current hourly close which is also below...

tomasz.goljan

On a slow market, without any tier 1 data being published it's wise to know the options expiry levels. EURUSD - 1.2300 (EUR 1.7bln), 1.2350 (EUR 506m), 1.2400 (EUR 1.2bln), 1.2500 (EUR 2.2bln), 1.2550 (EUR 3.1bln) Thoose are todays levels we should be aware off. With market conditions like today (No major news, low liqudity, price is close to the large options...

tomasz.goljan

Basicaly it's all written on chart, we are few hours shy of an RBA rate decision and statement publication. There are no hints of any action from RBA and the satatement should be dovish as usual with some words about to strong AUD hitting Australian economy hard. Long story short.. as long as below 0,9372 level then "sell the rallies" is the basic scenario.

tomasz.goljan

Cable broke from the previous range this morning with a move above 1,6610 marked level, after disapointing manufacturing PMI data it droped back and tested that level from above. If that breakout is valid then we should follow up now towards 1,666 ressistance level. Keep in mind that manufacturing PMI's aren't influecning Pound so much beacouse of how brisitsh...

tomasz.goljan

GBP/JPY currency pair is back on it's previous neckline support level which is now acting as an ressistance, 172,4-6 level should provide another leg down if that scenario is fine. That trade should be well supported by money flows into Japeness Yen with all the geopolitycal tensions, especially thoose at east Ukraine. Technically speaking 172,4-6 level worked...

tomasz.goljan

To start up there are 2 links to my previous USD/CAD ideas both still valid and both suggesting that 1.062 level from July might be an bottom for long time. Yesterday USD/CAD has fallen into 1,083 levels just above the green demand zone marked on my H4 chart, there's also 50% Fibo retracement of current Leg Up from 1,062 to 1,10 level present there just above...

tomasz.goljan

As in the title there are 2 base scenarios for EUR/USD for few next weeks (Yeah I'm a wizard and I know it can go up or down :P ) Let's start with the short scenario Techs : Just simple plain Price Action.. new lows after new lows and then another new lows for 3 months ? Why would we try to catch falling knife.. Every support present on daily chart was...

tomasz.goljan

GBP/AUD currency pair is close to an important support near 1,772 level which is 2014 low and possible wave 3 end. If we take away the fact that 5 wave structure should be in the bigger trend direction (which is an uptrend on bigger time frames for GBP/AUD) then the downside scenario is valid and if price manages to go lower then 1,772 low then way to 1,74 and...

tomasz.goljan

To start with, that's technical levels and fundamental data scenario which won't be valid if there's any kind of Russian intervention in west Ukraine as that should provide masive Jen Buying and USD/JPY free fall scenario. Taking into consideration all the recent United States data we should aim for an uptrend resumtiopn on USD/JPY currency pair which has...

tomasz.goljan

It looks like everyone is trying to pick the bottom on EUR/USD in last few days, is there any chance that last week lows at 1,336 level will work as an bottom for few next weeks ? Just to clarify I'm bearish on EUR/USD in Longer term but we really might be starting an corection phase here and now. Techs : * 1,335 - 1,34 Level is an Huge demand zone at daily and...

tomasz.goljan

Friday's drop opened up the Head and Shoulders scenario for the GBP/JPY currency pair, price managed to break and close under the neck line and so far it stays below. That would mean there's an posibility to enter short trade at current price level targeting levels close to 170 as that would be the H&S formation range. But there are few "IF" on that entry that...

tomasz.goljan

Base scenario for USD/JPY currency pair would be to go Long at current market price above 102,7 former ressistance zone and aim for a new highs as the sentiment for Dolar has shifted in last weeks. That should work preaty well if the NFP at Friday will post another strong 200+ number. Only an disapointing data tomorrow would be able to push USD/JPY below 102,7 and...

tomasz.goljan

US Dolar is on the run that's obvious fact lately, will it change or atleast run out of steam a little bit after this week GDP and Unemployment data ? That's another question. USD/CAD is in an uptrend in longer term ( atached idea with weekly wave count ) and if we would take 1,128-1,062 move as an corective wave 4 then it's time for last leg up which should...

tomasz.goljan

That's just an chart with weekly wave count prepared for an daily time frame bases Idea. Everything is in line here, Wave 1 was an strong impulse, then choppy and quite flat correction which was bigger then 50% of wave 1. Long and steady rise as wave 3 also makes perfect sense with an shalow correction as wave 4 whuch stopped at 38,2% Fibo Retracement. If wave 5...

tomasz.goljan

GBP/USD felt to really important level if there's an chance that it will conitnue the uptrend that we might be just getting to the entry point at the moment. There's an confluence of green marked Demand zone, 50% Fibo retracement of last swing up (1,669-1,719), daily trend line and the previous smaller leg up low at 1,685 level (red circle). Todays down move was...

tomasz.goljan

Just to note at start, that's obvious COUNTER trend scenario and it's considered to only be an corective move towards critical ressistances that lay around 1,349-1,351 levels. As long as 1,342 level holds we might be able to enter an long trade from current levels with 1,347-8 as an possible target just below the critical downtrend ressistance zone. As the main...

tomasz.goljan

Being Long Australian Dolar proved to be quite good idea from the fall of 2013 till end of first quarter od 2014, we might getting some tips that it's time to dust off that idea. First thing is the "Carry" trade scenario, difference in the base interests rates will support buying Australian Dolar against most other currencies. AUD/CAD looks like an decent pair to...