tomj2417

tomj2417

Being British it is difficult not to be gloomy about one's currency, especially when you look at this chart going back to the global financial crisis. However, while the red count would suggest another leg lower it also suggests that this could be a final leg lower to complete the move. For the sake of an alternative I have included a blue count that suggests the...

tomj2417

It must be obscure ETF Tuesday because here's another one that caught my eye today from the UK markets and a 3 times leveraged etf for GBPUSD. Although some EW practitioners are calling for a Dollar top and Dollar weakness going forward I couldn't help notice the almost perfect cup and handle that began in 2013 and concluded in 2017 Could that be an almost...

tomj2417

Another obscure ETF from my home country but I like the look of the chart. 5th wave due or another leg down for the correction or something totally different. I don't know but I will be watching for signs that my count has any validity.....

tomj2417

Just took a look at this stock this morning as it's held by someone I follow from time to time. It seems to be moving up nicely in an impulsive manner......more upside perhaps after a 4th wave correction.

tomj2417 Updated 

Here's a chart that I like (possible kiss of death) for it's apparent adherence to EW theory and bullish outlook, with a nice clear wave count, decent fib measurements and alternation too. With my central bank, the Bank of England, declaring an economic downturn on a scale not seen for 300 years are they are offering a massive contrarian buy signal? I'm with the...

tomj2417

Maybe it was the Bank of England's gloomy outlook for the UK economy that made me come up with these two bearish counts for the UK large cap index today. In fact, I have an even gloomier one but didn't include that one here for the sake of simplicity. Difficult to see where the upside for UK stocks is going to come from in the near term.

tomj2417

Yeah, I know. Another obscure etf from my home country, the UK, but I liked the almost perfect fib measurements and the clearness of the pattern and the count. In fact it quite remarkable to me how many times this chart hits the 38.2/61.8/161.8 fibs. If this correction alternates with the 38.2 fib retracement that I have for wave 1 then we can expect a much...

tomj2417

Here's another chart that sparked a bit of interest this morning as I look over the markets. Has it finished a 5 wave move to the downside or does it require another one to complete a correction? Personally I reckon there another move down before any chance of some decent upside, but as usual time will tell if this count has any merit at all.

tomj2417

I posted an idea on this one all the way back in 2018 which has kind of panned out with this latest move up that began recently in March. Is this beginning of something for this stock and by proxy the Uranium market? Not sure but that's a pretty impulsive move off the lows.......

tomj2417

Personally, I am with the bullish count but to me, the move off the low could just as easily be an ABC zig-zag of a downward 1st wave correction as much as an impulsive 1-2 move of an upward wave 5. I will just have to follow the price action and look for clues in the counts if leading/major stocks. Hopefully then the picture can become a little clearer.

tomj2417

The big question here is whether the February 2020 top was it already. I don't know and this count suggests that we may have one more leg to complete an extended 5th wave.

tomj2417

Yeah, I know.It's a very obscure LSE listed etf that doesn't have much relevance to anyone. But as I look through my charts trying to work out if what's happening at the moment is a bear market rally or a continuation of the bull market this chart perhaps, just perhaps, provides me with some clues. It has what seems to be a pretty decent count with things fitting...

tomj2417

Another ratio, another possibility. I'm with the red count on this one with the blue count as a more bearish alternative. Despite all the doom and gloom I keep seeing charts that would suggest another leg up for US equities. Or is is just my biases kicking in.....?

tomj2417

In my attempts to work out if the present rally is the beginning of a new uptrend or part of a larger correction I am will look at almost anything that might provide a clue. Does this ratio of the US market equities to Ex-US equities offer a clue? Perhaps, if this count has any merit (which I am doubtful about due to the very extended nature of my 5th wave). It...

tomj2417 Updated 

Is gold carving out an ABC correction here? Or depending on what your count is that a 5 wave impulse to be followed by some bigger moves to the downside? If I am correct does this also mean some short term US dollar strength?

tomj2417

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq Banking index showing that things could really be hanging in the balance at the moment. On the one hand this count suggests we may be in the final C wave of a long, flat correction that began back in 2007. On the other hand, if the said correction in fact completed back in 2009 then we could perhaps expect the bullish alternative and...

tomj2417 Updated 

Is Oil sending a message to equities today or is it the other way round and oil is about to bottom and head in the same direction as stocks? I'm going with the latter because I reckon that is a clear 5 wave pattern down for oil that is about to complete....

tomj2417

It's funny how the market is only obvious in hindsight and perhaps these 3 counts (4 if you include the blue option to correct further) prove that point. To my thinking they all have things going for them but getting it wrong could be pretty disastrous as the red count is bearish indeed.....The only thing I know for sure is that it will all be obvious after the...