tomj2417

tomj2417

It's all pretty obvious in hindsight isn't it.....Looks like a clear 5 waves up followed by a devastating correction in another UK investment trust, this one covering European equities. So, does that mean that at some stage this trend will resume upwards? I think it might but that there may still be some downside to come first. The 70.7 fib retracement might be...

tomj2417

There's some real carnage in the UK markets at the moment and this incredibly bearish chart of this popular UK investment trust does not make for pretty viewing. Was the uptrend from 2009 just a corrective B wave now being replaced by a devastating C wave?

tomj2417

I posted a chart back in July 2018 on this etf that was just a bit early on the turn in US treasuries but has that move up reached it's conclusion? This count would reckon so as it posits the completion of a 5 wave move..... (as a side effect does this also mean that we will see a decent rally in the markets?)

tomj2417

Sometimes I like to look at an index priced in my home currency (GBP) to see if it can provide any more clues and I reckon this chart and count might do that. Personally I am with the blue count which sees this decline as a 4th wave correction with a 5th to follow who knows when. The more bearish red count has to be considered though with all that is going on in...

tomj2417

Was that a top for Palladium? This count would suggest so.....

tomj2417 Updated 

Here's an etf from my part of the world for precious metals priced in GBP. This count (and the RSI divergence) might suggest that we may be due a decent correction before they head higher again.

tomj2417

I post this chart not because I invest in this market but because I happen to live there. This count suggests that the downward correction could have quite a bit further to go although on a positive note, it also suggests upside eventually. A possible clue could be the EW principle of alternation and while the wave 2 correction was a short one to the 38.2 fib...

tomj2417

Again, I've been bullish on the Pound but the price action this week has given me pause for thought. With a very big reversal against the US dollar and some pretty hefty pin bars against the Ozzie and the Kiwi dollar. Are we about to see some sustained weakness for the Pound?

tomj2417

I'm a Dollar bear but that reversal candle on the weekly chart and the price action this week got me looking for alternative counts. Is this bullish count possible? I posted a bearish count for Gold recently too that when taken in conjunction could make sense I guess. Interesting times indeed.

tomj2417

As always there are a lot of possible counts out there right now but I kind of like this one (although 4th wave corrections have a nasty habit of morphing into complex affairs). Will any recovery's be as violent as the declines? Whichever way it goes I reckon there could be a little confluence for a decent rally at the 50% fib line. Not for the fainthearted these markets.

tomj2417

I posted a chart on commodities back in 2018 that has come to pass but I now think the bottom may be even lower than I thought back then. These 3 Fibonacci measurements could suggest an area of confluence to me with the 5th wave of a C wave extending into a final low.....

tomj2417

The Pound has shown some strength lately but has been hammered this week against a raft of currencies. This is my take for it against the EURO going forward.

tomj2417 Updated 

I posted a bullish count of this short volatility etf back in December that presented a bullish view for stocks generally. However, it doesn't seem to have taken off as I thought and to me is looking a tad corrective, so I started looking for some alternative counts. These are two of them, one still offering a bullish progression while the other (surprise,...

tomj2417 Updated 

I called for a continued uptrend in this UK stock back in January 2018 and things have pretty much gone that way. With the general euphoria of the last few days in the UK markets with a Conservative landslide now might perhaps be a good time to be a bit contrarian. Either that or get egg all over my face. This count suggests that we may have topped in wave 3 and...

tomj2417

According to EW if the 2nd wave correction is shallow then there is a greater chance that the 4th wave correction is deeper. Still, is my 4th wave shaping up to be a simple flat correction or is this correction going to morph into something much longer and deeper? No way of knowing yet unfortunately.....

tomj2417

Just pointing out the possibilities as they appear but could this one be classed as forming a head and shoulders for the US Dollar index. My E wave seems to have reversed kind of strongly and looking at the Euro chart it has reversed also at telling levels. Interesting times indeed.....

tomj2417

Here's a long term count of the DJIA for what it's worth. Are we looking at an end of a 9 year wave 3 of a wave 5 lasting since 2011. Does that mean we are going to see a decent and prolonged correction for a wave 4? This count reckons so.....

tomj2417 Updated 

Not much weight behind this count as it's so messy but I did notice that 3 fib levels all seem to converge on that 1.08 level.