trader_boulder

trader_boulder

Recently somewhere on bloomberg or yahoo finance, some article said something to the effect of... "it's common to have rallies in a bear market" Well... look at what's happening now at the green line (down trend on this 5 year chart) Make sure to look at what TLT and UVXY are trending towards to get a good idea of over all market direction.

trader_boulder

We've had a nice bounce/rally thing going on for a while now, and look what's happening at the "green line" I predict that next week if not sooner we head back down a good amount. If you want pre-confirmation (predictive powers) take a look at what TLT and UVXY have been doing over the last 48 hrs.

trader_boulder

Lots of people are crying "it's gotta come back!" this week... however: 1. the market has been beat up for a while now so maybe a real rally is underway 2. It's an election year (markets usually go up) 3. fundamentals of economy are actually ok... there are shifts... but US economy is under full steam (except some pockets)

trader_boulder

Where does the big money go for safe haven? Two answers: 1. cash 2. treasury bonds So why are bonds going down now? Because the money comes back in to the market. Money comes in to the market for one reason... to buy stuff.

trader_boulder

If you look at TLT volume and direction, same UVXY and SPY... looks like today's drop is a flag, not a trend day. It's prob. not really time to go short yet.

trader_boulder

that volume since beginning of the year (and from August really) shows that the stock has probably found it's bottom for the moment. It bounced nicely off the fat red long term support line and is headed up to the next mid term range of 106 to 108. If apple releases a brand new product that people like and use (not another stupid watch, but something useful)...

trader_boulder

We won't be getting higher than the yellow line any time soon. With recent events around China's "real" numbers coming in (who knows what's real anymore?) and the issues around oil production (which are NEVER going away b/c in 15 years we won't even need oil anymore), the market is in a major, structure re-evaluation phase. Why? 1. Global unease in the old model...

trader_boulder

This weekly chart shows over all market weakness. However for the short term I think a bounce can be expected

trader_boulder

Look at what happened during the pre-shock "market dump test" in August. Look at what happened to the real move at the beginning of this year in Jan., Feb. The market bounces like a ball, even on the way down I think at the moment we will bounce for a few weeks.

trader_boulder

I started looking at my TOS and setting up my alerts for tomorrow. When I noticed the spy chart at 5 min. intervals... wow. In TOS it shows all the pre-post market data... the two W's of last Wednesday then today look remarkably similar. It seems like such an obvious flag to me.

trader_boulder

Last week I was looking at this 5 year chart, the green line on top with the descending triangle and thinking if we didn't bounce off what I call the "great line of apathy" then we would go further down. We pierced it. Thus, we go down.

trader_boulder

If you just look at price and volume action, especially recently this is kind of what it looks like to me (if it actually bounces). The August thing was just a "before shock".

trader_boulder

I don't know what Apple will do tomorrow, but it's been under fire lately with huge price targets and lots and lots of cash. Apple often throws surprises. I bought weekly options and am just looking for a violent move to either side.

trader_boulder

So the FED meets this week on Tuesday and will make some statement on Wednesday or something like that. Trading volume is light, AAPL has earnings coming out mid week. The market seems quiet... so is it? Often if the market is quiet, I check some of my favorite freak out stocks (big movers). Here is a great example of what a really quiet day looks like... GOOGL...

trader_boulder

If you look at what aapl has been doing on beating earnings... it has NOT been rising steadily... in fact in one case (Summer of 2015) they tanked on earnings.

trader_boulder

Normally on a knife drive there has to be a bounce at some point when people think "oh... that's cheap now"

trader_boulder

I have to admit I was long aapl for a couple bucks. Oh well.

trader_boulder

Wondering if recent volume surge is turn around volume or just more heavy selling w/ rest of mraket.