The VIX has been so low only 3 times in the last 15 years, this is the fourth period. That sounds like a nice bet to me! There isn't so much to say about the chart, when the VIX looks like it's bottoming there are only two choices : buy VIX or short stocks. Considering the amazing bull rally we are in right now, I do not want to short stocks, even if they are...
I believe being a contrarian just for the sake of it is a fool's game. However, there are certain circumstances, when a contrarian view is warranted. I believe the dollar rally to be one of these special circumstances, I explained my reasons in my previous charts. First of all, I am not sure the dollar rally ended. As I am as sure as I can be from a trading...
Natural gas is a very volatile commodity, with wild swings from time to time. However, lately, the patterns have been obvious. We had a long term downtrend that followed the wave on the way down with precision, a double bottom reversed the trend, then a wider inverted H&S pattern emerged, and now NG is at the h&s neckline which coincides with value. On the daily...
The measurement of the inverted h&s gives a target of 78$; the first bigger resistance level is 62$; I would say that 70$ is a reasonable target. I don't have a specific level in my mind, I am just bullish on oil, which just keeps going higher and higher, helping the inflation outlook in Europe along the way. Soft stop around 50$ ( I would need to see a serious...
The way this study was conducted : I have labeled the 23rd of each year, the day before Christmas Eve. In some cases, the labeled day differs because the 23rd was a weekend day. I have measured the gain from the swing low before the 23rd, to the close on the 23rd. On average the swing low is on 17-18 December. The results are: 23 Christmas holidays analysed 1...
Previous chart is linked below. On the weekly chart, there is a massive head and shoulders pattern which just keeps failing to break below the neckline. This was the 3rd attempt at a break below, and it looks to me like this is a clear rejection, again. In theory, when a H&S pattern fails to break, the target for it is the top of the head. However, I labeled a...
Reasoning behind the short dollar trade is in the linked chart below. The weekly chart looks like it's shaping a bottom; I might be subjective, I rarely trade in the direction of a breakout. The daily chart has one of the best patterns I use for timing in a trade - Friday-Monday momentum lost. On Friday, the picture was very negative for the Euro, and very...
Please start by checking the linked charts, where I explained each phase of this ranging market. The dollar made a beautiful break above 100, and everyone seemed so bullish. What triggered this 3rd bull run? 1) good data from US 2) the prospect of further monetary easing from ECB 3) the promise of fiscal stimulus that would accelerate the economy and would...
The weekly zoomed out picture is clear, a long consolidation area where an inverted H&S pattern formed. If prices break out of this consolidation, I think there will be a massive surge to 400$, maybe even 500$ (who ever thought google will go to 1000$?). Right now, price is bouncing off the shoulder line where there is strong support. The daily chart has formed...
From time to time, I like to post my mistakes. Usually I do it with private charts, but if there is something for everybody to learn, I make them public. This is a wonderful trade I took on USDTRY, or better said, didn't take. On the weekly chart, the green arrow shows where I bought, the red where I sold. Let me explain the trade. After a strong rise following...
I will explain in this chart how I am planning a long trade for the NZD. Starting off with the weekly chart, I see a decline to value in NZDUSD, right to the psychological level of 0.7. The Force Index is oversold in an uptrend, this is the time to buy. Going on to the daily chart, I can see a double bottom formation in a bigger H&S formation. When H&S do not...
Two inverted H&S formations, one on weekly, one on daily. Indicators are not signaling much, as Exxon has been in a correction(Force Index Oversold which is always the best scenario in a correction) on the higher time frame and a consolidation on the daily chart. Soft Stop on this one, it's hard to choose a level, I play these patterns more on feeling. I am...
This is the long term chart of CADJPY, which has been in a clear downtrend. There is a bullish divergence on this wedge which should push price higher, but for now, no need to look for a trend reversal. On the daily chart, a double bottom in a failed H&S continuation pattern with false breakout and bullish divergence calls for higher prices. This bullish...
I believe that sometimes an instrument will go up if it will go above a level or vice versa. I believe that sometimes trading is that simple. Of course this strategy is affected by false breakouts, but at the end of the year, a trader applying this strategy should come out ahead. Wells Fargo is currently standing at this type of level. It is the base of a massive...
It makes all the sense in the world for the Australian Dollar to go higher because: 1) It offers a good interest rate against all other g7 currencies. 2) The new governor at the RBA seems to be more bullish on the economy and at the next meeting (tonight) we will find out if he is thinking about further rate cuts. 3) The Fed is going to raise rates, Yellen made it...
Gold has started a new major uptrend, as shown in my previous two charts linked below. The price of gold is currently going sideways, consolidating and testing support at 1300 level. Although the weekly chart has not reached value at the EMA Wave, the Force Index was oversold and the impulse turned green after a bullish engulfing candle, all very bullish. Going...
For quite some time, EURHUF has been trading sideways. The 307 level has been very important in the last decade, many trend changes happened at this level. On Thursday, after the FED, the Hungarian Forint accelerated strongly and broke below the 307 level. Today, half of that move has been corrected, and price closed above the 307 level today, forming a class A...
The daily chart of NZDUSD stands at value. I am holding a position for the longer term because this pair keeps trending up. For the next few days, I see a swing opportunity with a very good RRR. On the 4H time frame, this pair has drawn a double bottom pattern with a bullish divergence. This double bottom should push prices higher to 0.73, a level where the daily...