wjduncan

wjduncan

As I learn this business of trading I have been wondering what logical fallacies ( formal and informal), if any, might have a bearing on trading psychology. Here are some initial thoughts on a few. 1) Fallacy of conjunctive probability. Literature shows that humans ( and rats btw) tend to judge the probability of two events occurring together as more likely...

wjduncan

Although I have been interested in markets and economic data for some years I only got interested in actual trading a few months ago. I'm going to document some lessons I am beginning to learn here as I stumble my way forward. Hopefully this may be of interest to anyone else who is fairly new to trading and investing. 1. AM I TRADING OR INVESTING OR BOTH? I have...

wjduncan Updated 

As I am both a longer term and shorter term investor and trader the notion of the best way to estimate if a stock is undervalued or over valued interests me. There seem to me a number of ways to go about doing this but I was interested to see if I could combine two traditional metrics that people look at into one measure and see if that told me anything...