Up to this point I have not traded this pair. A missed trade is better than a lost trade. Until the patterns are clear I will not trade. So far AUDUSD has been our cash cow.
No entry confirmed. The zig-zag correction could be complete. 50% retracement for wave two does not present us with a confident wave 3 trade entry.
No entry confirmed for this scenario. Wave B is shaping up into a triangle. Bias is still short for the short term.
Temporary short to complete the ABC zig-zag correction from wave 1. The bias is long in the long term.
A break out from the channel followed by the channel retest is excepted entry signal. On the aggressive side, a retest of the 38.2 fib might present opportunity to go long.
A move beyond the confirmation level will signal a short strength. A move beyond the previous wave C will required a re-evaluation of the projected pattern. It could be turning into an irregular flat plus irregular flat instead of irregular flat plus triangle.
All you need is one high probability trade per week.
Very possible to continue from there, but it will be better if it corrects up to 50% of the previous wave 1. See the related post for how the analysis evolved.
Will it correct to that far before completing the fifth wave?
Will it continue the down trend as projected or will push higher. Shall review on tuesday.
Taking long for the fifth wave and the will wait patiently for the correction, depending on how wave 5 ends we will trade or not trade the correction. Not definite yet if it will break the major down trend in the white dotted channel. the previous projection is attached as link...
Will wave Z get to that far? If so i would look out for five wave structure, if a five wave structure is confirmed by termination of wave 1 & 2 then i will go long with wave 3. As long as the price stays within the channel boundaries. Any thoughts?
Stop loss moved to 0.618 fib level. Profit locked. Still in the middle of wave E of the higher degree wave Z of the complex correction. We can confidently put a buy limit at the termination of wave Z, and stop loss at 1.618 fib level.
Stop loss moved to 0.618 fib level. Profit protected. Still in the middle of wave 3 of a larger degree wave 5. Wave 3 is never the shortest wave, based on the projected termination of wave 3 and the momentum noticed it's more likely to hit targets and reach the projected termination level of the higher degree wave 5.
Stop loss moved to 38% fib level, profit secured :) Still in the middle of a wave 3 correction, a wave 4 that seem to be playing out as a clean zig zag. 1,2,3,4,5 | a,b,c | 1,2,3,4,5 in the red channel.
Invalidated my analysis, back to drawing board, hence no trade without solid evidence or confirmations. I will re-work and wait for it to come to me, i cannot chase it, i will remain neutral for the moment.
Could be completing the last wave of the complex correction of the minor trend. Looking to buy at the termination of wave E.