The upcoming recession will take its share. Taking into account the rising interest rates and the intended slow-down of the economy, we should bottom out next July somewhere between 3500 and 2500.
Depending on the
1.) House market
2.) Unemployment rate
3.) Stickiness of the Inflation
We might see more positive or negative scenarios inside the cone, and either a...
The graph above shows the correlation between the Interest rate, Inflation and the SPX500. (Max timeframe by tradingview)
Once the Inflation goes up, the FED tries to up the interest rate. Once it reaches a plateau and goes sideways, the market goes down ("soft landing", "growth recession","please insert").
So far we didn't reach the peak of rate hikes by the FED,...
If we take a look at the current interest rate, the unemployment rate and the price of the SPX and look through the historical data.
We see a common pattern -> Increase in interest rate, followed by a period of plateau and just at this point the unemployment rate increased steeply -> followed by lower lows for the SPX and the market overall.
If we consider this...
Everytime the unemployment rate gained momentum, the SPX lost.
Historically, we have one of the lowest unemployment rates, although being in a very negative environment.
Due to the high inflation and recent interest rate hikes, businesses depending on liquidity and cheap capital might start with layoffs.
The layoffs will trigger lower consumer data, this will...
As long as the FED is pushing up the interest rates and the market is crashing, BTC will follow. Only once we see a change in the overall market dynamic BTC (and crypto) will change it's direction.
Two ETFs are compared:
SPDR MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc
iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF Acc
The first ETF followed the MSCI ACWI Index, while the second ETF traded in EURO (for investors in Europe) but denominated in Dollar didn't.
The EURO lost against the Dollar almost the same amount as much as the former unhedged ETF won against the hedged ETF....
A short comparison of the SP500 Index with the SP500 ETF traded in EUR.
Due to the weakness of the EUR, the ability to profit from lower SP500 prices is substantially reduced.
Inflation and weakness of the EUR is killing the cash deposits in the Euro Zone.
You can thank the ECB.
