We're at that time of the year that gold tends to outperform. Yet with bigger drivers behind the wheel, I doubt that gold's 5% rebound will extend through to December. In fact, I'm now looking for short entries. Using stats from seasonality, ETF flows and market positioning, I outline my base for bears before highlighting key levels for them to consider.
MS.
AUD/USD has risen for a thirds day from its multi-week low, and shows the potential to head for 66c It is the second day in a row the market closed just off its daily high and the daily RSI (2) is not yet overbought.
However, the October high makes a likely interim resistance level which could spark a pullback before dip buyers return. Bulls could seek dips down...
This is purely observational, but today I noticed that Hang Seng futures have risen from a 61.8% Fibonacci level six times this year. And as the rallies have landed anywhere between 6.5% to nearly 50%, it is worth noting that it is trying to rally from it a seventh.
A 3-day bullish reversal pattern formed on Monday (morning star formation) and the daily RSI (2)...
Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
Bitcoin is tantalizingly close to the elusive $100k target - a level which has been thrown around, literally for years, by bitcoin visionaries. And it looks like it will finally get there. Yet with prices rising while real-money accounts derisk from the original-flavoured crypto currency, which crowd should we follow?
MS
The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
It's been a tough few weeks for the DAX. But if the bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart comes to fruition, things could get a worse. I also factor in price action clues on the monthly candlestick chart, which again suggests things could deteriorate further before they get better.
MS.
A stronger USD, prospects of a deregulated oil market alongside disappointment with China stimulus and weighed on crude prices on Monday. WTI is toying with a bearish breakout of a pattern which projects a downside target around the mid 50s. But how realistic is that? Let's take a look.
MS.
Wednesday's risk-on session played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls thanks to a broadly weaker yen. We're eyeing a continuation towards 103, although an initial pullback may be preferred depending on which timeframe we look at.
MS
Implied volatility has spiked for FX majors ahead of the US election, and it really could go either way for AUD/USD depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. But how much downside is left for the Aussie when taking market positioning, China data and the latest RBA statement into account?
MS
Election jitters are in the air, and it is weighing on Wall Street sentiment - and dragging the ASX 200 with it, which also faces pressure from a spate of weak China figures in recent weeks.
A potential head and shoulders top has formed on the daily chart, and prices are close to testing a support zone which could double up as a neckline.
For now, the ASX...
I wanted to see how major markets have performed in the days before, during and after US elections. So I coded up a new spreadsheet. Here are the results...
Please note:
- Price data supplied by Refinitiv
- Most markets go back 8 elections
- US futures and VIX are the exception, which go back 6 elections
MS
Today I take a look at some recent ideas to see how they played out, then reassess them on the live charts to see if they're still worth keeping an eye on. Charts include AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, SPI 200 and WTI.
MS
After just one day of retracing on Friday, the USD bull regained momentum on Monday thanks to Fed members continuing to push back on aggressive easing. Markets are also pricing in a Trump win with some polls suggesting he is ahead in three key states and some bookies even touting for him to win. In the current climate, USD/JPY could be at 152 before we know it.
MS
USD/CHF has performed well since its latest rebound from 0.84, a level some analysts suspect prompts the SNB to intervene when prices cross beneath it. but unlike USD/JPY, its rally hasn't stalled near a big round number such as 150 or look overextended.
The daily RSI (14) is confirming the rally and not in the overbought zone. The USD-CHF 2-year spread has...
Another strong employment report for Australia helped the Aussie dollar gain traction on Thursday. And with Wall Street stocks remaining supported amid a weak-yen environment, AUD/JPY could be nearing a bullish breakout.
AUD/JPY found support at the 200-day SMA on Wednesday and formed a bullish engulfing candle on Thursday. The 2-year AU-JP yield differential...
WTI has fallen over 11% in seven days, and the loss of momentum around $70 could appeal to bullish swing traders. We're not looking for anything heroic here given the mixed signals on futures positioning, but it might be able to deliver a cheeky bounce higher over the near term.
MS.
The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area).
A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record...
