I discuss whether the RBA will cut next week and the reasons why, before taking a look at AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD charts.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Trump's tariffs are clearly not going away. In fact, he's upped the ante with a 25% tariff on all non-US cars, vowed to target pharmaceuticals and promised more are to come on April 2nd. Given the dire weakness in consumer sentiment data, I suspect Wall Street indices may have seen a swing high.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The retracement higher for the US dollar is finally underway, which also shows further upside potential. And this is why I am wary of being long EUR/USD over the foreseeable future, even if I suspect it is poised to break to new highs in the coming weeks.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Australia's employment report for February delivered a surprising set of weak figures. Understandably, markets reacted by pricing in another RBA cut to arrive sooner than later. But if we dig a little deeper, an April or May cut may still not be a given.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
I take a closer look at the Japanese yen futures market to highlight why I think the Japanese yen has reached an important inflection point. And that could further support the bounce of yen pairs such as AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY - alongside USD/JPY should the Fed not be as dovish as many hope.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City index and Forex.com
Bitcoin tends to track Wall Street sentiment well, particularly compared to the Nasdaq. Growing concerns that Trump's policies will tip the US (and therefore the global economy) into a recession, which currently has the Nasdaq on the ropes and bitcoin getting dragged along for the ride. And there could be further losses to follow, though a cheeky bounce at a...
The US dollar index is on track for its worst week in nearly two and a half years. It is also nearly 6% off from the January high, which is similar in depth to the two previous selloffs seen in 2023 and 2024. Yet I do not think we've seen the low just yet, even if there is evidence of a potential bounce on the daily chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City...
Currently lower for a sixth day, bitcoin futures have just tested the 200-day average for the first time this year. This clearly marks a pivotal moment for bulls and bears over the near term, but we also have to factor in the higher timeframes.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
With key levels holding and bullish divergences forming, USD/JPY looks like it may want to retrace higher over the near term before its bearish trend resumes and head for the 146 - 47 area.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Even as recently as two weeks ago, the thought of fed cuts were in the distant past. Yet a slew of weak data from the US since Friday including two consumer sentiment reports and a surprise PMI miss has seen markets reconsider a 25bp Fed cut in June. Today I cover bond yields, the US dollar index and futures exposure to update my dollar outlook.
Matt Simpson,...
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have once again reached record high, leaving the Dow Jones for dust in its choppy consolidation. But I think we're now facing a relative shift in their performance, which could see the Dow lead the way and close its gap with its Wall Street Peers.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBNZ just delivered their third 50bp cut in a row, and they have left the door open for further easing this year. And given I expect the RBNZ's cash rate to remain beneath the RBA's for the remainder of the year, it could pave the way for a bullish breakout on AUD/NZD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The ASX 200 reached a record high in today's session, but it's not a convincing record high in my books. If anything, it could signal yet another false break. Using the ASX cash and futures market alongside Wall Street indices, I delve into why we need to be on guard for another bull trap before the real move potentially begins.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at...
It seems everyone bullish the USD, waiting for its inevitable breakout above 110. But a subtle shift of bullish exposure to USD futures suggests the game is changing, and that a breakout may not be assured. Using market positioning from CME futures markets, dollar index and commodity FX charts, I take a closer look.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and...
Given the decent ADP report just delivered ahead of Friday's NFP figures, I'm curious to see whether the direction of ADP can be an indicator of what to expect on the headline Nonfarm growth figure. Armed with another spreadsheet, I take a look.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We're sandwiched between an incoming NFP report and the turbulence from Trump's tariffs. That could provide a double dose of 'fickle' price action, which we tend to see leading up to big events such as nonfarm payrolls or Fed meetings. With that in mind, I update my bearish bias on ASX 200 futures, using the intraday timeframe and a glance at Wall Street...
Trump's trade negotiations provided USD/CAD with its most volatile daily range since the height of the Pandemic. Yet the surprise announcement that Trump is pausing Canada's tariffs for 30 days saw prices reverse sharply lower, to close the day with an elongated bearish hammer.
Does that pave the way for an immediate reversal lower? Not necessarily. Using price...
