Trump's trade negotiations provided USD/CAD with its most volatile daily range since the height of the Pandemic. Yet the surprise announcement that Trump is pausing Canada's tariffs for 30 days saw prices reverse sharply lower, to close the day with an elongated bearish hammer.
Does that pave the way for an immediate reversal lower? Not necessarily. Using price...
The ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain...
If the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market...
AUD/USD escaped a short-covering rally on Wednesday, as softer-than-expected Q4 inflation figures could justify the 25bp RBA cut that money markets were already pricing in. I take a quick look at the key inflation measures and AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave....
The S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning....
While my bias for bitcoin futures to reach 125k remain in play, I'm a tad suspicious of its attempt to take out the previous record high with any conviction this week. I take a closer look at trading volumes and futures market positioning to explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and TradingView
The potential of a divergent theme between the ECB and BOJ alongside several price action clues suggest we could be looking at a decent bearish move for EUR/JPY this year.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Its bullish trend struggled to gain any traction above 158, and now momentum has finally turned against USD/JPY bulls. A retracement is now underway, but as to how deep really comes down to whether incoming US data continues to soften to bolster Fed-cut bets, or if the BOJ get their hawkish skates on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
While I suspect gold will outperform in 2025, I am suspicious of these early-year gains during low-liquidity trade. Taking market positioning into account, I assess the weekly trend structure alongside areas for bulls to seek potential shots on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
MS
The BOJ held rates as expected and the BOE are expected to hold rates later today, and unlikely to provide a particularly dovish tone. With that in-depth central bank analysis out the way, I want to share a nice looking long setup on the daily and 1-hour chart. I also take a quick peak at seasonality in December which points towards a bullish bias over the near term.
MS
Strong economic data for the US alongside expectations for the Fed to significantly reduce the pace of their easing cycle has been a main driver for USD bulls. And while the dollar could reach new high with the current backdrop, we're about to enter a phase of the year which greatly favours USD bears. Looking at monthly and daily seasonality patterns in December...
My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as...
The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD.
MS
Bets are back on for the RBA to cut, with markets having now fully priced in three 25bp cuts beginning in April. Weak GDP was the culprit, which leaves the Aussie susceptible to further weakness should incoming data continue to deteriorate. However, Aussie bears may also need to factor the yuan into the equation.
This is the question I am asking myself as we head into 2025. CAD has been the weakest major for some time now based on the BOC's easing cycle, and we saw a record level of net-short exposure against it in August, and another surge of shorts in November. This strikes me as a stale trade that is vulnerable to a shakeout, and it might not require a particularly...
The 124k target remains in play overall, but for now I suspect the shakeout from its 100k milestone has more to offer bears. And while bitcoin prices are showing a nice breakout from a flag pattern on the 1-hour chart, bulls should take note that today (the day after Thanksgiving) tends to be a bearish day on average. And that could make any moves towards 100k...
![AP1!: ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high](https://s3.tradingview.com/m/mJ6fxXbq_mid.png "ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high")
