Shorting USD/JPY is not a new idea and, as the pair has erased around half of its 21-month rally whilst holding above key support levels, we see the potential for a bounce over the coming weeks.
Like many indices, the DAX has enjoyed a strong start to the year after a dismal ‘Santa’s rally’. But after a 9% rally this month and early signs of a potential top, perhaps it is time for the DAX to pull back from its highs.
If we look at the daily chart, the market formed a small top and daily close below 15,000. Whilst prices are back above the milestone...
A potential bearish continuation pattern is forming on the 4-hour chart around last week’s VPOC (volume point of control). RSI (14) produced a bearish divergence ahead of the selloff and remains below 50 to show negative momentum overall. Prices remain beneath the weekly and pivot point and monthly R1, so now seeking evidence of a swing high beneath those levels...
Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession.
The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard....
Overnight implied volatility has risen sharply higher for yen pairs ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting. In fact, they now sit at their highest level since Brexit, which saw some yen pairs produce double-digit percentages moves (to the favour of the yen) following the infamous vote.
Why are traders on edge ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting?
The BOJ...
One week down, plenty more to go. We'll take a quick look at key themes and events that are driving market, what to look out for next week and include charts and potential setups for the watchlist.
I do not expect this to be a popular view, given the excitement of the rally on metals in general in recent weeks. But no trend lasts forever and we’ve not really seen much of a pullback on silver prices lately. Besides, silver has risen nearly 40% since the September low and fast approaching the upper trendline from a wide (slightly bearish) channel. The tendline...
WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle....
We see a technical case for EUR/GBP to top out over the near-term, which could be helped if Germany deliver a soft inflation report today. The baulk of today’s economic data is from Germany, with employment data at 08:55 GMT then inflation at 13:00. UK manufacturing PMI is scheduled for 09:30, then manufacturing PMI data is then released for Canada and the US at...
USD/JPY fell around -12% from its October high to December low, but is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
USD/JPY managed to hold above the 133.62 low and formed a higher low with a Doji, which is part of a 3-bar bullish reversal pattern (Morning Star Reversal). The 200-day EMA is also providing support. Prices have fully recovered the losses...
An interesting setup may have formed on the FTSE 100 daily chart. It has seen a strong rally from its October low and since produced a relatively shallow pullback from the 7600 resistance zone. The RSI (2) was oversold on Thursday and curled higher on Friday, which closed the day with a Spinning Top Doji candle to suggest a swing ow has formed. Furthermore, the...
The US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s...
The jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control.
The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the...
USD/JPY remains within a bullish trend on the daily chart, although prices have retraced -9.4% from its 24-year high. Prices have held above the 137.70 area and produced a double bottom pattern, with a bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. Two small bullish hammers have also formed to suggest the markets is trying to form a swing low. The bias remains...
The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation...
A bearish outside candle has formed on the daily chart, which is part of a double top at the 1.0482 high. The candle also has a large upper which to suggest strong supply at those highs, and a bearish divergence has also formed on the RSI (14). We are now looking for prices to retrace towards 1.0200 as part of a countertrend move, near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should...
