If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should...
The DAX entered a technical bull market on Tuesday by closing just over 20% higher from its September low. I have lost count the amount of times I have seen a market pull back from the 20% threshold (which is based on no logic that I can see, other than being a nice round number) – so that is just the first clue that the DAX could pull back further.
But we also...
The stock has been performing well ahead of its earnings reports, thanks to the news that DBS will be the bank to utilise MaxxDigital – a digital asset platform that provides risk and FX solutions for institutions. Whilst Singapore’s regulators continue to clamp down on crypto trading for retailers, Singapore wants to become a digital-asset hub within the...
EUR/AUD has caught my eye for a potential long. It posted a solid rally form the August low and entered a retracement phase, so at some point looking for it to turn higher. A potential bull flag is forming on the daily chart, and Friday’s spike lower shows a (failed) attempt to drive the market lower, where is found support at the July (close) high. Yesterday’s...
The US dollar was falling ahead of the midterm elections in anticipation of a Republican Senate and / or House. As the Dems have performed better than expected, we have seen a reversal of these pre-emptive moves on the eve of the US inflation report.
Expectations are for core CPI to soften (slightly) - but what if it doesn't? Inflation elsewhere continues to...
What a difference a week (or in this case, a single CPI report) can make.
Last week we were bullish on the dollar index due to the cluster of support levels nearby, and expectations for inflation to exceed estimates. Clearly, the fundamentals of a much softer CPI report made minced meat of the support zone and sent the dollar index lower, during its worst week...
The Aussie fell to below the 0.6300 target zone yesterday (marked by last week's VPOC - or volume point of control)
With the RBA's quarterly MPS (monetary policy statement) and retail sales released at today at 11:30 AEDT, perhaps upgraded inflation forecasts can give the Aussie a bump higher. But whilst prices remain beneath the monthly pivot point, such bounces...
AUD/JPY is one of those currency pairs that can chop around for periods of time, then one day switches on the momentum. And I suspect the market has tipped its hand to a downside move with yesterday’s bearish candle.
A resistance zone formed in April between 94.24 - 95.75 in April, where breaks above it have ultimately failed and the resistance zone gets...
The DAX is set to open lower, but there are two potential scenarios to monitor; a bullish breakout from a bull flag – or the swing high has already been seen around trend resistance.
The DAX has rallied from the September low in three waves, which could either be part of a new bullish trend or part of a 3-wave retracement. If we look at price action alone, the...
Australian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining...
The Nasdaq was the weakest of the three major indices on Wall Street ahead of Apple’s earnings report scheduled later today.
Despite a strong start, Wall Street indices snapped a 3-day winning streak on Wednesday and handed back early gains just before lunch. Weak earnings guidance from large tech companies weighed on sentiment and served as a harsh reminder that...
Tesla shares were lower after their mixed earnings report, which is likely a combination of traders booking profits from the small pre-earnings bounce in a classic case of ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’. But who knows, perhaps investors are tiring of Elon Musk’s showmanship remarks, which today included expectations of a “record breaking Q4” and the potential for...
Tesla shares were driven lower during after-hour trade following their Q3 earnings report, despite Elon Musk later touting a “record breaking Q4”. But let’s keep is simple and look at a potential multi-month reversal pattern on the monthly chart, and Tesla’s potential to break lower this week.
Sometimes you really need to stand back to admire the view, and the...
Following a 3-day pullback from 93.64, WTI produced a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart which closed back above the 20-day EMA. Given the strength of the rally from the 76.30 low, we suspect a corrective low has been found.
The 4-hour chart shows that there was a lot of trading activity around 87.60 since the September low (which marks the volume POC /...
There are two tell tale signs that an important event is looming; realised volatility has died a quiet death whilst implied volatility has sprung alive. For all FX majors, 1-day implied volatility is currently higher than 1-week implied volatility, which means options traders estimate volatility over the next 24-hours to be greater than the next five days.
Today...
WTI has been one of the few markets to stand up to recent dollar strength, with prices rising over 16% last week alone.
A strong bullish trend has developed on the 1-hour WTI chart. The 20 and 50-bar EMA’s have provided dynamic support throughout the trend and may provide bullish opportunities with a pullback towards them. The 20-bar EMA is near the daily pivot...
USD/JPY finally closed above 145 for the first time in 24 years. Given we saw the MOF (Ministry of Finance) intervene around 145.9 then the potential for the BOJ or MOF to jawbone (if not intervene) may be high. However, traders remain aware that it will take a coordinated intervention to turn this trend around, which is why prices simply drifted back to the highs...
The US dollar was the strongest major currency on Wednesday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data (which points to a softer global economy). And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month low of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8 - which suggests the aggressive...
