Asset managers increased their net-short exposure last week - and as these are 'real money' accounts, they are a group of traders worth listening to. But as always, timing as key, and there may be better setups for bears than AUD/USD over the near term. Today I pick out for AUD crosses to consider.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The Nasdaq 100 is in a technical bull market, having rebounded 20% from its cycle low. While the risk remains that this is simply a 'bear market bounce' that could sucker punch bulls, I believe bulls have got this and we could be headed for 25k.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We finally saw the reversal higher on USD/CAD last week, with a notable bullish engulfing candle strongly suggesting an important swing low. I take a quick look at last week's signal, update the analysis then wrap up on Canadian dollar futures positioning.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Here is my 2-minute technical take on why gold could be looking at a break below 3200 as part of a deeper correction, before it even considers resuming its almighty bullish rally.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The V-bottom on AUD/USD certainly delivered for bulls, considering its low was printed amid a flurry of panicked headlines with the Aussie was on the brink of falling below 59c. But we're yet to see a pullback, even though it has been teasing one for a few weeks.
But given AUD/USD formed its most bearish day since April 4 on Wednesday, with a bearish engulfing...
Bearish momentum has continued to wane on USD/CAD, as bears continue to make hard work of fresh cycle lows. That has allowed a bullish RSI divergence to form on the daily chart alongside a falling wedge pattern.
That is has formed around historical VPOC (volume point of controls) adds further weight to the potential bullish reversal. Also note that a bullish...
Indicators are a popular choice among many traders, and they certainly have their place in my own toolkit. But sometimes it is best to simply look the price to gauge strength. And doing so, it can help us scenario plan for future events. After I take a quick look at Japanese yen pairs, I wrap up on my preferred setup.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com...
WTI crude was on the ropes Monday morning following another surprise production increase from OPEC+. Yet despite the weak start to the week, oil prices held above the April low despite the bearish headlines.
Given we've already seen a -15% decline over the prior eight days and a bullish divergence has formed, I suspect some bullish mean reversion is due. Bulls...
The Dow Jones tends to share the strongest correlation with the ASX 200, out of the three Wall Street indices. It is therefore worth noting that Dow futures formed a bearish pinbar at trend resistance on Thursday, following an intraday false break of the March low. The daily RSI (2) was also overbought by the day’s close. The March 31 low also hovers nearby for...
Matt Simpson breaks down the latest Australian inflation data and what it could mean for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move. Plus, we dive into the AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD charts for key technical setups traders need to watch right now.
Here is my 2-minute take on the ASX 200 futures daily chart, where I discuss my hunch that a pullback could be due and how that could set us up for a better long setup further out.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and Forex.com and City Index
It can be useful to monitor several renditions of the same market, in order to identify higher probability support and resistance levels. And I would personally argue this becomes the more important if one trades CFDs exclusively.
Today I am comparing the ASX 200 cash market (XJO) and ASX 200 futures market (SPI 200, or AP1!) alongside the forem.com AUS200 CFD....
Cride oil may have recovered back above $60, but it is making hard work of it. And with resistance looming and large specs increasing short bets, perhaps a pullback due. But does that mean a break below $60 is imminent?
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
The US dollar index has handed back all of its Q4 gains with traders betting that Trump's trade war will do more damage than good to the US economy. I update my levels on the US dollar index and EUR/USD charts then wrap up market exposure to USD index futures.
Rising yields can usually be associated with a period of risk on. But seeing the 30-year treasury yield rise over 20bp in Asia while Wall Street futures cling on to their cycle lows is anything but usual. In fact, it's a bad omen of things to come.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The rally of the past two week on the ASX took a turn for the worse on Wednesday, on the warning (and official announcement) of Trump's 25% tariff on non-US cars.
This has seen the ASX get caught in the negative sentiment on Wall Street.
The daily chart shows that momentum has turned lower around a resistance cluster, including the December low, 38.2%...
Volatility has receded with less than 20-hours to go until Trump's tariffs are officially implemented, with traders now clearly in watch-and-wait mode. So while headline risks around tariffs remain in place, moves could remain limited unless traders are treated to any last-minute negotiations.
Typically, risk has benefitted when it has been expected that tariffs...
