USD/JPY fell around -12% from its October high to December low, but is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
USD/JPY managed to hold above the 133.62 low and formed a higher low with a Doji, which is part of a 3-bar bullish reversal pattern (Morning Star Reversal). The 200-day EMA is also providing support. Prices have fully recovered the losses...
An interesting setup may have formed on the FTSE 100 daily chart. It has seen a strong rally from its October low and since produced a relatively shallow pullback from the 7600 resistance zone. The RSI (2) was oversold on Thursday and curled higher on Friday, which closed the day with a Spinning Top Doji candle to suggest a swing ow has formed. Furthermore, the...
The US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s...
The jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control.
The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the...
USD/JPY remains within a bullish trend on the daily chart, although prices have retraced -9.4% from its 24-year high. Prices have held above the 137.70 area and produced a double bottom pattern, with a bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. Two small bullish hammers have also formed to suggest the markets is trying to form a swing low. The bias remains...
The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation...
A bearish outside candle has formed on the daily chart, which is part of a double top at the 1.0482 high. The candle also has a large upper which to suggest strong supply at those highs, and a bearish divergence has also formed on the RSI (14). We are now looking for prices to retrace towards 1.0200 as part of a countertrend move, near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should...
The DAX entered a technical bull market on Tuesday by closing just over 20% higher from its September low. I have lost count the amount of times I have seen a market pull back from the 20% threshold (which is based on no logic that I can see, other than being a nice round number) – so that is just the first clue that the DAX could pull back further.
But we also...
The stock has been performing well ahead of its earnings reports, thanks to the news that DBS will be the bank to utilise MaxxDigital – a digital asset platform that provides risk and FX solutions for institutions. Whilst Singapore’s regulators continue to clamp down on crypto trading for retailers, Singapore wants to become a digital-asset hub within the...
EUR/AUD has caught my eye for a potential long. It posted a solid rally form the August low and entered a retracement phase, so at some point looking for it to turn higher. A potential bull flag is forming on the daily chart, and Friday’s spike lower shows a (failed) attempt to drive the market lower, where is found support at the July (close) high. Yesterday’s...
The US dollar was falling ahead of the midterm elections in anticipation of a Republican Senate and / or House. As the Dems have performed better than expected, we have seen a reversal of these pre-emptive moves on the eve of the US inflation report.
Expectations are for core CPI to soften (slightly) - but what if it doesn't? Inflation elsewhere continues to...
What a difference a week (or in this case, a single CPI report) can make.
Last week we were bullish on the dollar index due to the cluster of support levels nearby, and expectations for inflation to exceed estimates. Clearly, the fundamentals of a much softer CPI report made minced meat of the support zone and sent the dollar index lower, during its worst week...
The Aussie fell to below the 0.6300 target zone yesterday (marked by last week's VPOC - or volume point of control)
With the RBA's quarterly MPS (monetary policy statement) and retail sales released at today at 11:30 AEDT, perhaps upgraded inflation forecasts can give the Aussie a bump higher. But whilst prices remain beneath the monthly pivot point, such bounces...
AUD/JPY is one of those currency pairs that can chop around for periods of time, then one day switches on the momentum. And I suspect the market has tipped its hand to a downside move with yesterday’s bearish candle.
A resistance zone formed in April between 94.24 - 95.75 in April, where breaks above it have ultimately failed and the resistance zone gets...
The DAX is set to open lower, but there are two potential scenarios to monitor; a bullish breakout from a bull flag – or the swing high has already been seen around trend resistance.
The DAX has rallied from the September low in three waves, which could either be part of a new bullish trend or part of a 3-wave retracement. If we look at price action alone, the...
Australian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining...
The Nasdaq was the weakest of the three major indices on Wall Street ahead of Apple’s earnings report scheduled later today.
Despite a strong start, Wall Street indices snapped a 3-day winning streak on Wednesday and handed back early gains just before lunch. Weak earnings guidance from large tech companies weighed on sentiment and served as a harsh reminder that...
