This is a quick and simple setup based around the assumption that support will continue to hold for USD/JPY.
The market found support at a high-volume node (HVN) last week. And each time the market has either tested or traded beneath the 154 handle, it has been accompanied by heavier volumes and a subsequent move higher. This suggests bears have been burned...
Trump's trade negotiations provided USD/CAD with its most volatile daily range since the height of the Pandemic. Yet the surprise announcement that Trump is pausing Canada's tariffs for 30 days saw prices reverse sharply lower, to close the day with an elongated bearish hammer.
Does that pave the way for an immediate reversal lower? Not necessarily. Using price...
The strong rally from the October low has entered a sideways range, and prices have seen failed attempts to break above a prior double-top high ~1.4468. A bearish pinbar also formed yesterday beneath the double top and the daily RSI (2) is also near the overbought zone.
The 4-hour chart shows a 2-bar bearish reversal at the range highs, and until we see a...
The ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain...
If the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market...
AUD/USD escaped a short-covering rally on Wednesday, as softer-than-expected Q4 inflation figures could justify the 25bp RBA cut that money markets were already pricing in. I take a quick look at the key inflation measures and AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave....
The S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning....
While my bias for bitcoin futures to reach 125k remain in play, I'm a tad suspicious of its attempt to take out the previous record high with any conviction this week. I take a closer look at trading volumes and futures market positioning to explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and TradingView
A potential bull flag on the 1-hour chart of AUD/JPY has caught my eye, and a closer look at volumes also suggests it worthy of consideration.
The weekly CVM (cumulative volume delta) has confirmed the recent rally into the bull flag pattern, but is also breakout out of its own flag to suggest bullish pressure is building. It is also near its own weekly high, a...
Trump's reluctance immediately sign an executive order to implement tariffs on China has allowed the yuan to rise against the US dollar. And where the yuan goes, AUD/USD tends to follow these days. And give AUD/USD has already seen an extended move to the downside, some bullish mean reversion is surely due.
The weekly RSI reached oversold ahead of a false break...
The potential of a divergent theme between the ECB and BOJ alongside several price action clues suggest we could be looking at a decent bearish move for EUR/JPY this year.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
USD/JPY has fallen nearly -2% in two days, and the required central bank divergence between the Fed and BOJ appears to be returning, which could see prices much lower from here.
Prices are close to reaching my bearish target at the monthly pivot point (154.60) outlined in yesterday's video, and prices are less than a day's trading-range away from it. Perhaps it...
Its bullish trend struggled to gain any traction above 158, and now momentum has finally turned against USD/JPY bulls. A retracement is now underway, but as to how deep really comes down to whether incoming US data continues to soften to bolster Fed-cut bets, or if the BOJ get their hawkish skates on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Last week in a video I expressed my concerns that the start-of-year gains were a bit suspect. So it is interest to see that a bearish engulfing day formed around a resistance cluster including a weekly VPOC and trendline from the record high.
Prices remain within a small symmetrical triangle on thew daily chart which could really break either way, but with such...
The China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
While I suspect gold will outperform in 2025, I am suspicious of these early-year gains during low-liquidity trade. Taking market positioning into account, I assess the weekly trend structure alongside areas for bulls to seek potential shots on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
MS
From a purely technical perspective, EUR/AUD could look appealing to bears. Resistance was found at 1.68 before bearish range expansion and a potential bear flag followed. But I also feel like we have seen this movie before (even if it was upside down).
In late November we saw a false break of the June and October lows before a bull-flag breakout occurred. we...
![AP1!: ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high](https://s3.tradingview.com/m/mJ6fxXbq_mid.png "ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high")
