This time tomorrow we will finally know the outcome of the BOJ and FOMC meetings. Options traders clearly have it on their radar, as the 1-day implied volatility band has expanded to nearly 4x its usual range (defined with a 20-day average).
But with bets of a hike already accompanied with a much weaker yen, traders may also want to be on guard for the potential...
We'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls.
The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June....
We take a multi timeframe approach for today's gold analysis video. Taking into account COT data from the weekly chart, support levels on the daily and four-hour charts, we outline our rationale as to why gold could hit new lows after an expected bounce.
MS.
Nikkei futures found some stability on Monday around the May high, before going on to snap a 6-day losing streak. The daily RSI (2) was oversold to further suggest mean reversion could be due. And with Wall Street showing signs of stability ahead of tech earnings, we suspect a bounce could be due.
The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI spent some time in...
The ASX 200 futures contract (SPI 200) snapped a 3-day losing streak overnight, and with Wall Street trying to shed last week's losses and the Nikkei and Hang Seng finding support, we suspect a bounce could be due for the ASX today.
The daily chart found support at the 20-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot and closed back above the May high. It is now within 1-2 day's...
AUD/JPY fell nearly -4.5% since the MTD high to today’s low. And as AU employment has raised the takes for another RBA hike – even if only very slightly – we suspect further upside over the near term. Besides, assuming the MOF did intervene on the yen on Wednesday, it seems unlikely to be followed up with more action today. And that could allow the yen to drift...
The dollar index formed a small bullish candle on Monday, above the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages. Given the daily volume was relatively high compared with the candle, it could suggest a build up of buying pressure and potential cycle low. The daily RSI (2) was also oversold on Friday.
A bullish RSI divergence formed on the 4-hour RSI, and a...
The Aussie fell for a second day and mostly erased gains made from the prior six. Whilst it found support at the May high, the shift in momentum at 68c suggests there could be some further downside potential, even if just to 67c or the breakout level around 0.6690. The daily RSI (2) is not yet oversold either.
A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart....
The combination of dovish Fed comments and a softer inflation report from Canada excited gold bulls enough to send spot prices convincingly to a record high on Tuesday. It was gold's best day in 4 months and closed near the high of the day. Yet it couldn't quite stretch to $2370. And here is why...
The front-month adjusted futures contract for gold rallied in...
A prominent bearish candle formed on Monday, and despite rising over the next two days gold has failed to recapture Monday's losses. The fact that over half of Wednesday's range was upper wick also suggests bulls lack the adequate enthusiasm to extend gold's rally, for now at least.
Furthermore, the 4-hour chart shows that the previous 3 high-volume spikes landed...
It is a quiet start to a busy week, but USD/JPY is trying to rise above a key support level. The 1990 high and MOF intervention level from May reside around 161.16/21, the daily RSI (2) has reached its most oversold level since the June low, so perhaps a swing low could be due on the daily chart.
The market has been rising for the past couple of hours, although...
The euro has posted a solid rally from its June low. A small consolidation formed above the 200-day averages, and momentum is turning higher.
With US data rolling over and the likelihood that the ECB are in no position to signal a cut next week, the path of least resistance could be higher for the euro. Today's US inflation report is a key event for the pair,...
Another day, another handle for USD/JPY which tapped the 162 level for the first time in over 37 years on Monday. The daily chart clearly shows a strong uptrend although a bearish divergence has formed on the RSI indicator in the overboard zone. This brings the potential for a pullback although this seems unlikely unless the ministry of Finance intervenes.
The...
The Aussie posted a strong rally from the April low to may high. It has predominantly traded in the sideways range since then, but more recently we've seen two higher lows form within the range. And over the past two-and-a-bit weeks, intraday breaks me 64 cents have resulted in closes above it. I'm a bullish pressure appease to be building in that range.
The...
A strong lead from Wall Street on Wednesday ahead of Independence Day could bode well for Asian indices such as the ASX 200. The daily chart shows that prices are coiling which could indicate the volatility is set to increase in the coming days or weeks. Take note that over the past couple of weeks, each dip beneath 7700 has been bought Which shows demand above...
The ASX 200 cash market enjoyed its most bullish day in seven on Thursday. But like the SPI 200 futures contract, it met resistance before pausing.
The daily chart shows that a double top formed around the June 26 high and trend resistance. And as it's not unusual to see a market retrace against a strong move, and we have an NFP report looming which could...
The China 50 row traced over 7% from a high to the June low. But a triple bottom formed at the 12,000 level, just above the 200 day average. A Bullish divergence also formed on the two-period RSI whilst the triple bottom formed.
On Tuesday we saw clear range expansion to the upside and a daily close above the 200 day exponential moving average. This suggests an...
Silver rose over 2% in Thursday’s Asian session, eventually prompting gold to try and catch up. Yet gold’s ‘rally’ was lacklustre in comparison, and with silver pausing near a resistance cluster, we’d prefer to fade fold below $2350 for a move lower.
Silver has stalled around a high-volume node (HVN) and trend resistance. RSI (2) is overbought and prices have...
