Friday's nonfarm payroll report took many by surprise to send the USD dollar sharply higher against all of its major peers. And that clearly took it toll on the Aussie, which suffered its worst day in five weeks. A bearish outside week formed, all thanks to an elongated bearish engulfing candle on Friday.
AUD/USD managed a minor rebound from its 100 and 200-day...
The ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for...
Price action may be choppy on the daily timeframe, but it remains in an uptrend none the less. Price action since the April high appears to be corrective, and support was found around a prior VAH (value area high) and 1.36 handle.
The 1-hour chart shows strong bullish momentum from 1.36, and prices are now consolidating within a potential bull flag. The pattern...
Our bias is for the US dollar index to rise to 105 over the near-term. The daily chart respected trend support from the December low, and the 4-hour chart shows a small ascending triangle which implies a break above resistance.
Out of the FX majors, USD/CHF looks ready to break above resistance and lead the dollar broadly higher. Bears could also consider a short...
Gold formed a decent rally after consolidating above the 2023 high. We finally saw a retracement following its failure to close above $2400, but momentum is now trying to turn higher once more.
We're not yet sure whether any potential bounce is simply the 'b' wave on a ABC correction (if so, it implies another leg lower after a bounce) or if the correction has...
The SPI 200 shows an established uptrend on the 1-hour chart, with a recent bullish engulfing candle forming a higher low around the 20-bar EMA and closing above a retracement line.
The RSI remains above 50 to show positive momentum, and there are no obvious signs of a topping pattern forming on the chart.
A break above 7907 assumes bullish continuation and...
We all know of the strong rally that catapulted to a fresh record high in March. Yet price action since appears to be corrective. Whilst we do not yet know if this is simply the first leg lower of a complex correction, or it is set to break to new highs - only time will tell. However, it appears set for a leg higher over the near term.
Volume retreated with...
Prices have been coiling on the daily chart to form a potential bullish pennant / symmetrical triangle, which hints at further gains. RSI (14) remains over 50 on the daily chart, and volumes were lower during the consolidation to show lack of conviction from bears, sellers stepping in at the cycle highs.
The 1-hour chart shows prices retracing lower after RSI (2)...
At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today.
The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little...
Having fallen for six consecutive days, bearish momentum on EUR/USD is beginning to fade. Tuesday's low also held above the 1.06 level and 71.6% Fibonacci level whilst RSI (14) and (2) are in oversold levels on the daily chart.
The 4-hour chart shows bullish divergences on the RSIs, so the bias is to seek dips towards 1.06 for a long towards 1.0650 at a minimum....
Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A...
The euro's rally from the December low appears to be losing steam. Tuesday's high respected a resistance cluster including a 61.8% Fib level, high-volume node and trend resistance. A 2-bar bearish reversal (which includes an engulfing candle) only made a marginal high above Friday's high, and a bearish divergence has formed on the RSI.
With CPI looming, perhaps...
Market positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel.
Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend...
Bitcoin futures managed to fid support above $60k before snapping a 4-day losing streak. Bullish momentum increased from GETTEX:64K , and the move lower since appears to be corrective in nature against the strong rally from $64k.
A bullish outside / engulfing candle formed around the 50% retracement level and above Wednesday's daily TPO VAH time price...
GBP/USD makes for a really interesting short setup.
It saw a strong rally and eventual false break / mini blow off top above the December high, before a sharp reversal lower on Monday. It fell back beneath the December high, and a rising wedge (bearish reversal during a down move) stalled at the 50% retracement level, just beneath the December high.
- The wedge...
At the end of January we highlighted the potential for USD/CAD to retrace back to its 50% level and print a swing low. It worked out well - although the 1.36 target did not arrive as soon as hoped. Still, it reached that key level on Wednesday - and it is a level that remains of interest.
Not only did prices fail to close above the 1.36 handle and weekly R2...
We have a huge risk event in the coming hours; US PCE inflation. Should it come in softer than expected, risk is likely to pick up as this is how it has behaved pretty much every time inflation has come in soft. Conversely, a hot inflation report could dent risk - but we suspect not to such a large degree.
Fed members have been very vocal about maintaining...
USD/JPY fell for five consecutive days by Monday's close, which was its worst 5-day run in three months. Yet two daily closed beneath the lower Keltner band and RSI (2) reaching oversold indicated that mean reversion higher was due.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data confirmed our suspicions, and a bullish day broke the 5-day bearish sequence and confirmed a...
