A potential bull flag on the 1-hour chart of AUD/JPY has caught my eye, and a closer look at volumes also suggests it worthy of consideration.
The weekly CVM (cumulative volume delta) has confirmed the recent rally into the bull flag pattern, but is also breakout out of its own flag to suggest bullish pressure is building. It is also near its own weekly high, a...
Trump's reluctance immediately sign an executive order to implement tariffs on China has allowed the yuan to rise against the US dollar. And where the yuan goes, AUD/USD tends to follow these days. And give AUD/USD has already seen an extended move to the downside, some bullish mean reversion is surely due.
The weekly RSI reached oversold ahead of a false break...
The potential of a divergent theme between the ECB and BOJ alongside several price action clues suggest we could be looking at a decent bearish move for EUR/JPY this year.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
USD/JPY has fallen nearly -2% in two days, and the required central bank divergence between the Fed and BOJ appears to be returning, which could see prices much lower from here.
Prices are close to reaching my bearish target at the monthly pivot point (154.60) outlined in yesterday's video, and prices are less than a day's trading-range away from it. Perhaps it...
Its bullish trend struggled to gain any traction above 158, and now momentum has finally turned against USD/JPY bulls. A retracement is now underway, but as to how deep really comes down to whether incoming US data continues to soften to bolster Fed-cut bets, or if the BOJ get their hawkish skates on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Last week in a video I expressed my concerns that the start-of-year gains were a bit suspect. So it is interest to see that a bearish engulfing day formed around a resistance cluster including a weekly VPOC and trendline from the record high.
Prices remain within a small symmetrical triangle on thew daily chart which could really break either way, but with such...
The China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
While I suspect gold will outperform in 2025, I am suspicious of these early-year gains during low-liquidity trade. Taking market positioning into account, I assess the weekly trend structure alongside areas for bulls to seek potential shots on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
MS
From a purely technical perspective, EUR/AUD could look appealing to bears. Resistance was found at 1.68 before bearish range expansion and a potential bear flag followed. But I also feel like we have seen this movie before (even if it was upside down).
In late November we saw a false break of the June and October lows before a bull-flag breakout occurred. we...
Santa's rally put in a poor performance this year. ASX futures sold off into Christmas before the 200-day SMA and 8000 handle came before the market eked out a weak comeback into the new year. Yet price action on the daily chart suggests we could be approaching a swing high.
It appears we're in a third wave higher from 8000, yet momentum lacks the legs of the...
The BOJ held rates as expected and the BOE are expected to hold rates later today, and unlikely to provide a particularly dovish tone. With that in-depth central bank analysis out the way, I want to share a nice looking long setup on the daily and 1-hour chart. I also take a quick peak at seasonality in December which points towards a bullish bias over the near term.
MS
Strong economic data for the US alongside expectations for the Fed to significantly reduce the pace of their easing cycle has been a main driver for USD bulls. And while the dollar could reach new high with the current backdrop, we're about to enter a phase of the year which greatly favours USD bears. Looking at monthly and daily seasonality patterns in December...
The Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely.
The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour...
The Nasdaq reached a record high and the S&P 500 is close to reaching its own record high. So while the Dow was lower for a fourth day, 2 out of 3 indices rising could help support the ASX today.
It's been over a week since the ASX began retracing from its record high, and with prices now trying to form a base above the monthly pivot point and historical weekly...
My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as...
The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD.
MS
Bets are back on for the RBA to cut, with markets having now fully priced in three 25bp cuts beginning in April. Weak GDP was the culprit, which leaves the Aussie susceptible to further weakness should incoming data continue to deteriorate. However, Aussie bears may also need to factor the yuan into the equation.
This is the question I am asking myself as we head into 2025. CAD has been the weakest major for some time now based on the BOC's easing cycle, and we saw a record level of net-short exposure against it in August, and another surge of shorts in November. This strikes me as a stale trade that is vulnerable to a shakeout, and it might not require a particularly...
