We have remained bullish the US dollar the past few weeks, and continue to suspect there are plenty of shorts to be covered as markets finally concede that fewer Fed cuts are coming this year and already priced in.
The dollar has posted a strong rally YTD, and after a brief consolidation momentum is trying to turn higher with a bullish outside candle. It's not...
If commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce...
Like NZD/USD, the Aussie is refusing to roll over despite a strong US inflation report. That is in itself a sign of strength.
The daily chart is yet to see a close beneath the Q3 open, and the lows are holding above the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A bullish RSI divergence also formed from the oversold zone to suggest a swing low has formed or is...
Risk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie.
Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the...
Index futures held their ground overnight, and the US dollar's rally is showing signs of near-term exhaustion. And that indicates a subtle change in sentiment ahead of today's open.
The DAX found support at its 50day EMA on Wednesday, which is just above the 2021 high. Given a small-ranged bullish hammer formed alongside higher volume suggests a 'change in...
Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms.
A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're...
WTI appears set tor a cheeky retracement. Volumes were falling during its leg higher from $68, and Wednesday closed with an exhaustion candle. Note the strong trading activity around $70 which indicates some bears were caught short and bulls initiated, which assumes short-covering helped fuel the rally and any retracement towards $70 could also be supported....
We've seen a nice pullback on NZD/USD into a prior volume cluster, false break of 0.62 with a doji and a bullish divergence with the RSI (2).
Assuming US CPI doesn't surprise to the upside, this looks like a decent swing trade long setup. Although a risk-on vibe and broad USD weakness is required to make it work.
Take note that 1-day implied volatility is 2.5x...
The Australian dollar’s rally has met its match around a key resistance area, which includes the January trendline and Q3 open price. A 2-bar reversal formed on Wednesday, following RSI reaching overbought the day prior. And as the US dollar has weakened on bets on Fed cuts ahead of a key PCE inflation report, I suspect there may be some disappointment and the...
The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing candle formed last week, which marks 140.25 as an important swing low. Whilst we remain unconvinced the pair will simply break above 152, it does show the potential to extend its countertrend bounce.
However, with the pair stalling beneath last week’s high ahead of a key US inflation report, the potential for a pullback...
Sometimes simple is best. And we may have found a simple setup on the China A50 index.
Sure, the daily chart remains within a downtrend, but it shows the potential to extend its countertrend move higher by at least one more leg in our view.
The index saw a decent rally from the 11,600 area before retracing 50%. A 3-bar bullish reversal pattern has formed...
A potentially nice setup is forming on #GBPUSD.
High trading activity around 1.2718 during its prior decline could act as a magnet for prices on the daily.
The 200-day MA has flipped from resistance to support and no immediate signs of a top on price and OBV is confirming the rally.
A strong trend has formed on the 1-hour chart with a potential bull flag. The...
With oil prices having fallen around -25% from the September high, a correction higher may be due.
And as prices failed to hold beneath $70, Wednesday's bullish hammer (which is also a higher low) has caught out eye). The hammer was coupled with above-average volume to suggest demand around $75, and the initial break below $70 was seen on strong negative delta...
Based on the observation that US equity markets tend to perform well heading into Thanksgiving, we decided to take a proper look at the figures. And it turns out, the Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving tends to average the strongest positive returns of 0.54% with an 80.6% win rate.
The Nasdaq followed its seasonal tendency to rise on Monday, and closed at a...
We've found an interest setup on gold's 1-hour chart. A double bottom has formed just above the weekly pivot point, with a slightly higher low forming a bullish engulfing candle.
Moreover, the cycle low was seen on high volume and strong negative delta (far more sellers than buyers on that 1-hour candle). And this suggests bears could be trapped around that...
Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower.
I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also...
EUR/CHF posted a decent rally from its October low, yet we're yet to see a meaningful pullback. But one may be near.
A 2-bar bearish reversal has formed at a resistance zone and the 200-day EMA. Tuesday's high is also a lower high in relation to the September high.
From here we're looking for some bearish mean reversion towards the monthly pivot.
What makes...
Gold prices rallied nearly 11% over a 3-week period into the cycle highs. Yet the characteristics of its clean, strong bullish move have been replaced with choppy price action since it failed to hold above $2000.
A shooting star formed on Friday following its false break of $2000 to form a lower high on the daily chart. And this was followed by a bearish...
