Whilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term.
WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached...
Yes, EUR/USD has fallen to a key support level around the May low. And that will likely deter some bears around current levels from entering short (depending on their timeframe). But given the potential for for the Fed to deliver a more hawkish message than money markets are pricing in whilst the ECB suggest they are done tightening, we're not discounting the...
The more we look at market positioning on WTI, the more we suspect that oil may be dominating headlines as we head into 2024.
In recent weeks we can see that large speculators and asset managers have been increasing long exposure and reducing shorts, which is the ideal scenario for a bullish trend. Yet net-long exposure for both sets of traders remains low by...
Despite strong data from the US and weak data from China over the past few weeks, AUD/USD bears have failed to keep the Aussie below 64c. Even a strong inflation report from the US on Wednesday resulted in the Aussie springing back above that key level.
Since then, we have seen the pair break a retracement line on the 1-hour chart as part of a bullish breakout...
USD/CNH remains in a soliud uptrend on the daily chart and, after consolidating around the June highs and forming a bullish hammer at 7.25, the swing low appears to be in. A bullish range expansion day broke the bearish resistance line, and bulls could seek to enter upon any pullbacks towards yesterday’s low for a tigher long entry.
The bias remians bullish above...
GBP/AUD has retraced from its YTD highs in three waves, and hinted at a swing low with a Doji yesterday.
Moreover, the doji formed at a long-term trendline, historical high and 50% retracement level whilst RSI (2) was in the oversold level.
The bias remains bullish whilst prices remain this week's low, with an interim target near 1.9700. Given its established...
Last week we outlined a bearish bias on the daily EUR/JPY chart, due to its elongated bearish candle below 160 following an established RSI divergence on the daily chart.
The 1-hour chart shows a strong move lower from the August highs, followed by choppy price action and a lame attempt to recoup half of the losses sustained from the initial drop - which suggests...
US10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow.
But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation....
USD/CAD has risen just over 4% since its YTD low set in July. And it did so in a relatively straight line. Yet a double top has now formed on the daily chart beneath the April and May highs, with the second ‘top’ coming in the form of a bearish engulfing / outside day. This likely points to at least a minor top over the near-term. Any low-volatility moves towards...
EUR/AUD remains within an established uptrend on the daily chart, and a 3-wave countertrend move has formed.
It is trying to build a base above the 50-day EMA and July high, which paints a near-term bullish bias whilst prices remain above 1.66.
We're not yet sure whether we're at or near the end of a 3-wave correction, or if this is simply the first leg lower...
A multi-month bearish divergence has formed on the EUR/JPY daily chart. And whilst the trend remains bullish, it has made harder work of gains in recent months whilst the bearish divergence formed.
There's also reason to suspect BOJ members are getting read to increase their verbal warning shits, with one member yesterday remining traders that they are watching...
USD/JPY has continued to defy gravity despite the growing threat of verbal (or actual) yen intervention by the MOF/BOJ. Yet the higher and faster it rises, so does the threat of intervention. You can see what impact it had on USD/JPY from the large bearish candle that formed on 23 October 2022, where the initial break above 150 was then met with a swift move lower...
Conditions for a weaker US dollar have been ripe, with calls for the RBA’s rate to have peaked at 4.1%, deteriorating data from China and ‘higher for longer’ calls for the Fed. And with that, we have seen some outlandish calls for the Aussie to fall to 50 and even 40c.
Perhaps those calls will turn out to be right. But the Aussie did not earn its name “the...
USD/CNH remains within an established uptrend on the daily chart, and the US02Y-CN02Y spread has reached a new cycle high to suggest upside pressure could be building on USD/CNH.
Prices have retraced and are now trying to build a base around the June highs. Bulls could seek dips around the cycle lows with a stop below 7.25 in anticipation of a move to 7.35, the...
Gold prices have held up well the past couple of days despite a stronger USD and yields. Although its established bearish trend looked overstretched around recent lows, after bears failed to drive prices materially beneath the June low.
We see the potential for the retracement continue higher over the near-term, but we'll be looking out for evidence of a swing...
AU wages came in weak, The RBA hinted that they think they're done tightening in the minutes, The PBOC cut rates (again) and a slew of data from China once again misses the mark. And all in a 30-minute period! I think we’re fast approaching a phase where bets will be on for another round of stimulus. The China A50 is holding its ground above 12,600 and AUD/USD has...
EUR/USD formed a bullish pinbar last week, and Friday's bullish range expansion formed part of a 3-day bullish reversal (morning star pattern). It appears an important swing low formed on Thursday, and any pullback towards Thursday's high will catch our bullish interest.
Prices are flirting with a break below 1.10 ahead of the European open, and perhaps we'll see...
Lat week we saw USD/CHF pull back from the 0.8800 area, after its rally stalled around 0.8800, the 50-day EMA and failed to rest the May low.
Prices have drifted higher during Monday's Asian session, but seemingly hesitant to break above the 2021 low. The bias remains bearish beneath last week's high and for a move to 0.8600.
Who knows, if US CPI comes in soft...
