2025/02/11
Daily 4XSetUps - AMZN Price Action Is Broken But Not Hopeless
“the air seems to be out around $230 after the breakout over $200!
are the bears coming back now? does the $200 price action hold up?”
Traders and investors were also able to enjoy price gains on the European stock exchanges today. The EuroStoxx 50
EUSTX50, the leading index for our Euro region here, rose by +0.62% to 5,358.30 points. Outside the eurozone, the Swiss 
SMI gained +0.27% to 12,627.84 points. In London, the FTSE 100 
UKX also rose, in this case by +0.77% to 8,767.80 points.All of the democratic unconscious paranoia and/or conscious propaganda regarding Trump seems to have evaporated into thin air. "The food is not eaten as hot as it is cooked!", is what we say colloquially here in Germany - and I don't want to and can't describe the whole political theatrics surrounding him any better. We are therefore letting our long 4XSetUps continue this week - with corresponding stop prices and/or target prices. And we hope that the selection, thanks to the diversification and/or not only taking into account possible Trump tariffs, but also US monetary policy, we should be well positioned. Be that as it may - when larger traders and/or investors press the buy button or sell button? Then that's it! But the scaremongering about Trump's unpredictability? They no longer employ a professional! Not even us anymore - although I assume that you, my readers, don't manage such large accounts. However, that doesn't matter - and it is always important to be aware of the consequences! And in the case of the last US tariffs of +25% on all steel and aluminum products imported into the USA, this time it only concerns a specific sector, which only affects Germany to a limited extent. And/Or also our long 4XSetUps. Which will hopefully ensure that you, yes, exactly you, if you read my posts every day, are more calm than you were a week ago, let alone 8 years ago - after his all-round tariff attack on Canada, Mexico and or even China. A good worth reading article wrote two ING Bank analysts: “President Trump has signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports into the US, effective March 12, 2025. With four weeks until the tariffs take effect, there is still room for negotiation. But with many countries ramping up their trade defence, further trade escalation seems inevitable.”
“Well, that is kind of true. The average investor (man or woman) will have the tendency to follow the crowd, also known as “herd mentality.” So, they’ll be buying at higher prices, and selling after general sentiment would have affected prices. This is where we’d like to differentiate investing based on “information” and “sound.” The average Joe/Jane will most likely not have access to better information than large financial institutions participating in markets. Their decisions will be based on information readily available online, and accessible to millions of participants.”
Ray Dalio
It looks like we had just as bad timing with the long AMZN 4XSetUp as we did with the good case with the
NFLX stock. Basically, I fear that the Magnificent 7 
GOOG 
AMZN 
AAPL 
MSFT 
META 
NVDA 
TSLA of the 
NDX stocks are fundamentally valued far too expensive in the historical context - compared to individual stocks from the 
SP500 from the 
DJIA - and/or even from our german 
DAX inclusive some single european stock from the EUSTX50 . Which is why I have currently formulated just as many long 4X SetUps - from different sectors as possible. On the one hand because of the historical valuation of US stocks and on the other hand because of Trump's tariff policy, which could (not) send both the individual US stock markets DJIA SP500 NDX and/or individual stocks in particular downwards. So I can very well imagine that in this year 2025, many values from the DOW DJIA and/or even SP500 SP500 could not only outperform the Magnificent 7? No! Maybe even that the Magnificent 7 GOOGL AMZN AAPL MSFT META NVDA TSLA and/or the NDX will have a negative performance in price action this year 2025?! Although of course I also use their products and services enthusiastically - but I don't want to, can't ignore the historical assessment of price action, from the perspective of fundamental analysis. That's why take care - on the fundamental assessment in the historical context and/or also on Trump's US customs policy, which could both send the price action of stocks downwards - and operate with both stop prices and/or target prices. And then see if the time comes - the stop price or target price has been reached (from stock to stock).$242.52 : 2025/02/04 - Annual High 2025
$235.61 : 2025/01/24 - Intraday High
$233.00 - 2024/12/16 - December 2024 High
$233.00 - 2024/12/16 - 1st Leg Downside Trend
$232.76 : 2025/02/11 - last price action
$228.84 : 2025/01/06 - 2nd Leg Downside Trend
$225.86 : 2025/01/24 - Intraday Low
$215.90 - 2024/11/14 - November 2024 High
$216.20 : 2025/01/14 - 2nd Leg Upside Trend
$195.75 : 2024/11/21 - 1st Leg Upside Trend
$215.90 - 2024/11/14 - November 2024 High
Regardless of the historical fundamental valuation and/or Trump's US tariff policy - which is less likely to harm
AMZN than to the US consumer (if a cheaper Made IN USA is not purchased) - the AMZN share is battered. I'm almost experiencing deja vu - an experience that may seem instinctively familiar to me from the past! Which? [url=]Here again is my last comment from December 18th, 2024 - 2 days earlier, before I closed all of our 4XSetUps at the time, in the run-up to Donald Trump's inauguration. And/Or also due to the above-average performance, our 4XSetUps in 2024. Didn't want to be too greedy back then: "Currently it looks in the chart as if we have dared to dig into the toilet with this long AMZN 4XSetUp, as we colloquially say here in Germany. Nevertheless, this can also happen - if you always operate with an entry price, target price, and/or only a % share of the total portfolio assets, on the financial market, with the help of CFDs. And that's what we do - I'll let you know! You decide for yourself! Anyway, let's get back to the current picture of price action, in the form of a short, to-the-point analysis. Because basically, after our price target was reached, nothing major changed in the price action. AMZN stock was able to open with a bullish GAP on the following November 1, 2024 after the last quarterly results published on October 30, 2024. So, from a POV (Point of View) of the technical analysis, we have a solid price action base zone between $190.60 and/or even $197.02. What makes me fundamentally bullish for the year 2025 - if the price action of the AMZN share shouldn't be sent down by traders and/or investors (i.e. even below $197.02). Because in retrospect we can argue that the price action is not only above the psychologically important mark of $200, no - the market, i.e. the majority of (un)involved financial market participants, created the breakout at the end of 2024, from just over $200. What bulls hopefully confirm in 2025. And that's what this long AMZN 4XSetUp is all about. And that regardless of the fact that we already had our original price target. And now have a new entry price and/or target price."Basically, if I'm not mistaken, the price action chart on
AMZN is broken - but not hopeless! On the one hand, the price action is bullish above $231.40 and also bearish below $225.86. Because the bullish breakout day is likely to be confirmed both bullishly above and bearishly below. And on the other hand, the price action between $231.40 & $220.11 is also groundbreaking - even bullish above $231.40 and/or even bearish under $220. Because this bearish trading day, December 18, 2024, was more or less something like a reversal of the previous uptrend, just above $200! Will AMZN stock return to below $200? That is the question - the fear that I share with you here. The AMZN stock is currently being traded more or less in a sideways trend by traders and/or investors. The price action at more or less around $215.90 should hold - the November high of 2024. Because a price action below that would prove a trend reversal formation. Which is why I set the stop price of this long 4XSetUp at the psychologically important price action of $200. Because a price action below $200 would prove a significant price action trend reversal in the last few days, even weeks, yes even months!--------------------------------------------------
$250.00 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
--------------------------------------------------
$232.76 : 2025/02/11 - last price action
$228.90 : 2025/01/25 - Entry Price
--------------------------------------------------
$200.00 : 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron
“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in
DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.