Aug 31, Week overview.
Overview:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, also known as the inflation rate, was reported at 2.5%. This matches the rate from June and is consistent with the readings from January and February of this year. The PCE is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE because it accounts for changes in consumer behavior and provides a broader measure of inflation. For example, if consumers switch from buying beef to chicken because beef becomes more expensive, the PCE captures this substitution effect, whereas the CPI does not adjust as quickly.
The
SP500 SP500 closed the week with a strong performance, breaking out of its established range with the highest volume seen in the last 20 days. However, this surge wasn’t driven by the volatile tech sector, as evidenced by the weaker performance of 
QQQ .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (
DJI DJI) closed with a confirming green candle, cementing its all-time high. The economy appears to be booming.
W: This week,
BTCUSD completely retraced last week’s green candle that touched the Bollinger Bands (BB) moving average (MA). It's always interesting to see what happens during Asian trading hours on Monday morning (late Sunday evening in the US). This time, the US might not interfere with Asian market movements due to the Labor Day holiday. If there’s a sell-off, US bulls might be away from their brokerages, unable to support the crucial 58.4k level. Bearish.
D: Over the last four days, BTC has seen lower highs but the same lows. This period mirrored the global liquidity index, which has been declining for the last four days as well. No divergences.
4h: No divergences. BTC is below the Point of Control, which is bearish, but it is aiming to break the weekly support line for the third time in four days. Neutral.
1h: Range trading. No divergences. Neutral.
Alts relative to BTC: Alts are weaker than BTC. This is the type of divergence we typically look for.
SOLUSD and 
NEARUSD have been sliding down for the last eight days, approaching their August 5th closing prices. 
ETHUSD is only 2.44% below its recent level.
Bull case: A booming stock market could reduce inflation concerns. Market participants may turn optimistic and start betting on riskier assets. BTC could hold the 58.4k level once again, and next week we might see a big green candle that initiates the fourth bull run wave of the current cycle.
Bear case: The worst happens—while bulls are celebrating Labor Day, Asian bears could completely annihilate the market.
Fear and greed index: 46.36. Flat for four days.
Prediction: Short-term outlook is indecisive. Weekly outlook remains bearish.
Opportunities, at W, 4h divergences of major alts: Many Alts are at weekly levels as BTC attempts to bounce off its support level. This presents an opportunity for a few short-term green candles. However, be cautious, as you will be betting against a larger trend, so set tight take-profit (TP) levels and even tighter stop-loss (SL) levels.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, also known as the inflation rate, was reported at 2.5%. This matches the rate from June and is consistent with the readings from January and February of this year. The PCE is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE because it accounts for changes in consumer behavior and provides a broader measure of inflation. For example, if consumers switch from buying beef to chicken because beef becomes more expensive, the PCE captures this substitution effect, whereas the CPI does not adjust as quickly.
The
SP500 SP500 closed the week with a strong performance, breaking out of its established range with the highest volume seen in the last 20 days. However, this surge wasn’t driven by the volatile tech sector, as evidenced by the weaker performance of QQQ .The Dow Jones Industrial Average (
DJI DJI) closed with a confirming green candle, cementing its all-time high. The economy appears to be booming.W: This week,
BTCUSD completely retraced last week’s green candle that touched the Bollinger Bands (BB) moving average (MA). It's always interesting to see what happens during Asian trading hours on Monday morning (late Sunday evening in the US). This time, the US might not interfere with Asian market movements due to the Labor Day holiday. If there’s a sell-off, US bulls might be away from their brokerages, unable to support the crucial 58.4k level. Bearish.D: Over the last four days, BTC has seen lower highs but the same lows. This period mirrored the global liquidity index, which has been declining for the last four days as well. No divergences.
4h: No divergences. BTC is below the Point of Control, which is bearish, but it is aiming to break the weekly support line for the third time in four days. Neutral.
1h: Range trading. No divergences. Neutral.
Alts relative to BTC: Alts are weaker than BTC. This is the type of divergence we typically look for.
SOLUSD and NEARUSD have been sliding down for the last eight days, approaching their August 5th closing prices. ETHUSD is only 2.44% below its recent level.Bull case: A booming stock market could reduce inflation concerns. Market participants may turn optimistic and start betting on riskier assets. BTC could hold the 58.4k level once again, and next week we might see a big green candle that initiates the fourth bull run wave of the current cycle.
Bear case: The worst happens—while bulls are celebrating Labor Day, Asian bears could completely annihilate the market.
Fear and greed index: 46.36. Flat for four days.
Prediction: Short-term outlook is indecisive. Weekly outlook remains bearish.
Opportunities, at W, 4h divergences of major alts: Many Alts are at weekly levels as BTC attempts to bounce off its support level. This presents an opportunity for a few short-term green candles. However, be cautious, as you will be betting against a larger trend, so set tight take-profit (TP) levels and even tighter stop-loss (SL) levels.
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