Let's summarize the situation.
We were on the edge of slipping into a bear market, with
BTC under heavy selling pressure and looking bearish on daily, hourly, and weekly timeframes.
A lot of people were caught off guard, selling their crypto to prepare for shorts and ending up sidelined—I was one of them, and I’m pissed. Since I live in Asia, I was asleep when it happened, and so was the entire Asian market.
Then, conveniently, Trump announced the strategic crypto reserve, which was originally scheduled for Friday to coincide with the White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday.
On the global stage:
- The rejection of Zelensky has pushed Europe to react, with some leaders now considering sending troops to Ukraine. This could seriously complicate things for the Trump administration and potentially escalate into WWIII. No joke, this is a serious situation.
- Israel has decided to destroy Gaza completely and is now enforcing a full-scale siege, which will cause massive international backlash. The situation there never been so bad.
- Recession fears are mounting, and we can see markets starting to shake and correct.
And then Trump drops his crypto reserve announcement…
- This was a sloppy reveal—posted only on his own platform, not on X—which caused panic, as people scrambled to verify the source, thinking it was fake news.
- Even worse, the initial announcement didn’t mention Bitcoin or Ethereum! Instead, they listed
XRP, Cardano, and Solana as part of the reserve, which made people think their accounts were hacked. Later, they corrected it, clarifying that BTC and 
ETH are at the "heart" of the reserve.
So yeah… Sunday night, completely unexpected, and poorly executed.
What does this mean forBTC?
- Weekly timeframe: Nothing has changed—it’s still in a serious correction, and a 10% daily pump isn’t enough to reverse the trend. My previous analysis is still valid.
- Daily timeframe: The MACD has reset, and RSI is now in a neutral zone. This suggests a potential short-term pump over the next few days.
- Key levels: Supports at $91k and $80k are back, but $99k remains a major resistance and could reject $BTC.
- Leverage & liquidity: A massive $4.3 billion in longs has been built up, meaning we’re likely to retest the downside to liquidate them.
- CME gap: We just created a 10%+ CME gap, which will most likely be filled.
Conclusion:
Optimism is back, and we could see a short altseason as capital flows into altcoins, now that some are officially part of the U.S. national reserve.
BUT the global situation remains extremely concerning:
- War tensions in Europe and the Middle East
- Recession risks still on the table
- Uncertainty about how this crypto reserve will actually work
This is great news, but going all-in on longs at this point seems risky. How long will this momentum last? More than a week? I’m not sure.
Technically, the correction isn’t over. Unlike December 2024—when Trump’s election happened at the end of a correction, with a bullish MACD crossover—we are now at the START of a weekly correction, which could last until May 2025.
So yeah, fundamentally bullish, but technically, the correction still has room to go.
We were on the edge of slipping into a bear market, with
BTC under heavy selling pressure and looking bearish on daily, hourly, and weekly timeframes.A lot of people were caught off guard, selling their crypto to prepare for shorts and ending up sidelined—I was one of them, and I’m pissed. Since I live in Asia, I was asleep when it happened, and so was the entire Asian market.
Then, conveniently, Trump announced the strategic crypto reserve, which was originally scheduled for Friday to coincide with the White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday.
On the global stage:
- The rejection of Zelensky has pushed Europe to react, with some leaders now considering sending troops to Ukraine. This could seriously complicate things for the Trump administration and potentially escalate into WWIII. No joke, this is a serious situation.
- Israel has decided to destroy Gaza completely and is now enforcing a full-scale siege, which will cause massive international backlash. The situation there never been so bad.
- Recession fears are mounting, and we can see markets starting to shake and correct.
And then Trump drops his crypto reserve announcement…
- This was a sloppy reveal—posted only on his own platform, not on X—which caused panic, as people scrambled to verify the source, thinking it was fake news.
- Even worse, the initial announcement didn’t mention Bitcoin or Ethereum! Instead, they listed
XRP, Cardano, and Solana as part of the reserve, which made people think their accounts were hacked. Later, they corrected it, clarifying that BTC and ETH are at the "heart" of the reserve.So yeah… Sunday night, completely unexpected, and poorly executed.
What does this mean for
BTC?- Weekly timeframe: Nothing has changed—it’s still in a serious correction, and a 10% daily pump isn’t enough to reverse the trend. My previous analysis is still valid.
- Daily timeframe: The MACD has reset, and RSI is now in a neutral zone. This suggests a potential short-term pump over the next few days.
- Key levels: Supports at $91k and $80k are back, but $99k remains a major resistance and could reject $BTC.
- Leverage & liquidity: A massive $4.3 billion in longs has been built up, meaning we’re likely to retest the downside to liquidate them.
- CME gap: We just created a 10%+ CME gap, which will most likely be filled.
Conclusion:
Optimism is back, and we could see a short altseason as capital flows into altcoins, now that some are officially part of the U.S. national reserve.
BUT the global situation remains extremely concerning:
- War tensions in Europe and the Middle East
- Recession risks still on the table
- Uncertainty about how this crypto reserve will actually work
This is great news, but going all-in on longs at this point seems risky. How long will this momentum last? More than a week? I’m not sure.
Technically, the correction isn’t over. Unlike December 2024—when Trump’s election happened at the end of a correction, with a bullish MACD crossover—we are now at the START of a weekly correction, which could last until May 2025.
So yeah, fundamentally bullish, but technically, the correction still has room to go.
Trade closed: target reached
I told you. The macro has not changed. We have retraced BELLOW yesterday in a massive drump, and just after Barron, the little 18 Trump's kid that is providing advices on social said to HODL !Retails who were targetted by the Trump annoncement during the week end have been used as exit liquidity.
Millions of people have lost their money on this fake pump.
If the Trump familly could stay away from reading and giving advices (specifically from a kid that was not even born when Bitcoin was created!) that would be beneficial for this space.
FOMO/FUD every day, and people losing their money to enrich the banks and Trump's familly is enough!
Note
The previous chart is ETH, yes it will be in the US reserve, and that is such a good news: got +20% followed by -30% Note
It looks like we've reached a bottom, but I’d stay cautious. Trump’s tariffs will trigger **countermeasures** from Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China. Their responses won’t sit well with traditional markets.
On top of that, GDP is contracting by -2.8% this month, officially putting us in a recession.
Things could get worse. What catalyst could realistically push
BTC
higher in this environment?
Going long now is a high-risk bet.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.