2024/12/15
Daily 4XSetUps - CBK Above GAP Last Week! Now Bullish Again?
“bearish GAP last week before being closed and defended last week!
will the price action be able to stay above this level permanently?”
Despite setting another record, the
DAX lost moderately on Friday. After an increase up to 20,522 points, traders and investors probably got cold feet, so that profits crumbled. At the end of trading, our leading German index entered the weekend with a loss of -0.10% and 20,405.92 points. On a weekly basis, it only managed a measly increase of the same magnitude of +0.10%. In the difficult fiscal policy environment in France and/or also the difficult political environment here in Germany, initial gains were largely shed on the European stock market last week. The individual stock markets in Europe, including the DAX , are lacking positive impulses after their recent gains. after the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected. Investors and/or Traders are now likely to be waiting for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next Wednesday. So the price action can be explained relatively fundamentally. But let's not complain! Since the beginning of 2024, there has still been an impressive price increase of almost +22% in the DAX . Despite concerns about the domestic economy and the early federal elections in February 2025, only a few indices can show even more significant gains - such as the market-wide US index 
SP500 and/or the technology-heavy selection index 
NDX .
“The most important thing is that you develop your own principles and ideally write them down, especially if you are working with others.”
Ray Dalio
€16.965 : 2024/10/07 - Annual High 2024
€15.825 : 2024/05/22 - May 2024 High
€15.660 : 2024/07/23 - July 2024 High
€15.105 : 2024/12/13 - last price action
€15.015 : 2024/11/22 - Bearish GAP Upper Line
€14.620 : 2024/11/25 - Bearish GAP Under Line
€14.060 : 2024/09/11 - Bullish GAP Upper Line
If you look at the price action for the year 2024 so far, you immediately notice, at least to me, the two highs from May 2024 and/or June 2024. Which is why I wrote this long CBK 4XSetUp the way I wrote it on Monday, November 16th, 2024. after the share started the trading day with a bullish GAP on the previous Wednesday, September 11th, 2024.
I placed a stop price for this long CBK 4XSetUp the way I placed it, because what is currently crucial is the small bearish GAP from November 2024. We bulls closed this bearish GAP meanwhile and defended it - but the fight about this terrain is not over yet! Because it also reflects that traders and/or investors may once again come to the mathematical and sometimes also semantic conclusion that a takeover of
CBK by Unicredit would lead to this price action might not be worth it after all. Which is why the last trading week was something like a little glimmer of hope - because for the first time again the share not only opened above the small bearish GAP, much more also only the price action was about it and closed above it with. From this pov (point of view), the high from July 2024 with €15.660 and/or May 2024 with €15.660 are the first targets for us optimistic bulls. While bears could, for better or worse, recapture the small bearish GAP again, even €15.015 and/or €14.620, and then send the price action back to the intraday low of September 11, 2024 until €14.060. When the partial sale briefly described above was published to our German federal government.As a reminder,
here is the scenario surrounding the big GAP
- why I also took the
CBK off my watchlist and formulated even this long CBK 4XSetUp, as i wrote it: CBK shares rose sharply on Wednesday morning, September 11, 2001, after it was announced that Italian bank UniCredit had acquired a 4.5% stake in the Frankfurt-based credit institution. The deal, which involves the acquisition of 53.1 million shares from the German state, represents a significant step in Berlin's gradual exit from its long-standing stake in CBK . As of 10:00 a.m. London time, the price action of the shares of the CBK had risen +17.5%, which reflected investor optimism about the deal. Berlin's first step towards exiting CBK was thus sealed - which then prompted me to formulate this long CBK 4XSetUp. Because our German federal government also confirmed, on the day in question, that it had sold a 4.5% tranche of its 16.49% stake in CBK to UniCredit for around 702 million euros ($775 million). This sale reduced the state's share to 12% - nevertheless, our German federal government still remains the largest shareholder in Germany's second largest bank listed on the stock exchange. As a reminder, the state first invested in Commerzbank during the 2008 financial crisis and injected 18.2 billion euros to stabilize the stumbling bank. Since then, CBK has already repaid around 13.15 billion euros from this rescue operation. "Where UniCredit-Commerzbank is now, from 4 angles" is a good, concise article that provides a good, detailed overview, if you want to know about this scenario.-------------------------------------------------
€20.000 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
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€15.105 : 2024/12/13 - last price action
€15.595 : 2024/09/16 - Entry Price
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€13.500 : 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in
DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.