2025/02/15 - 7th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Trend Reversal In DXY Last Week
“3 bullish uptrends broken - classic bearish trend break!
how deep can it go? which price action is important? why?”
Against the backdrop of the debate about Donald Trump's US customs policy and the United States' stance in the Ukraine war, the most important US stock indices entered the weekend with different signs. While standard stocks fell on Wall Street, technology stocks on the Nasdaq
NDX rose. Figures from US retail were significantly worse than experts expected. "Retail Sales in the United States increased 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, following an upwardly revised 4.4% rise in December 2024. Retail Sales YoY in the United States averaged 4.73 percent from 1993 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 52.50 percent in April of 2021 and a record low of -19.90 percent in April of 2020." A rate cut is currently off the table. And so it was and is not surprising that the Dow Jones Industrial 
DJIA closed with a loss of -0.37% at 44,546.08 points on Friday - and was therefore able to record a weekly gain of around half a percent. The broad-based S&P 500 
SP500 fell by -0.01% to 6,114.63 points on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 NDX , which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, reached a record high shortly before the end of trading and ultimately gained +0.38% to 22,114.69 points. Next Monday, the US stock exchanges will be closed for a holiday.“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.”
George Soros
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
108.096 : 2025/02/07 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
If I'm not mistaken, traders and/or investors seem to be negotiating a trend reversal in the $TVC:DXY. Because both the terrain above the 2024 annual high of 108.583 points from 31st December 2024 and/or above the 2023 annual high was taken over by the bears, after an even higher 2025 annual high of 110,176 points was reached on January 13, 2025. Last week the thought came to my mind for the first time: "buy on rumors & sell on facts" - which could be true in the case of the
DXY and/or Trump's US tariffs. Because both on the day Trump took office, on Monday two weeks ago, and/or last Monday also, when Trump announced US tariffs in public for the first time, the price action of the DXY fell during both days - including volatile intraday highs. So it wouldn't surprise me if we even fell back to 105,441 points in the upcoming calendar week - the intraday high of November 6th, 2024. The day Trump won the US elections for the second time. Precisely because of the “buy on rumor & sell on facts” hypothesis! Or not?With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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