Another 48h - Fight In DXY For Upward Trend Is In Full Swing

2025/02/13 - 7th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Fight In DXY For Upward Trend Is In Full Swing
“the upward trend from Dec. `24 & Jan. `25 is in danger this week!
us inflation data? us retail sales? do they play a role? `or only tariffs?”

The US stock markets picked up speed again today, on Thursday, February 13th, 2025. The appetite of traders and/or investors to buy was boosted in late trading by news that US President Donald Trump had launched a new round of far-reaching tariffs. It was said that these were reciprocal tariffs on goods from various countries. The White House made it clear in advance that it was targeting other trade barriers. "US President Donald Trump inked plans on Thursday, February 13, for sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" affecting both allies and competitors, in a dramatic escalation of an international trade war that economists warned could fuel inflation at home.", wrote the international French newspaper LeMonde i.e. in a good article.

Anyway, the Dow Jones Industrial closed with a gain of +0.77% at 44,711.43 points. The broad-based S&P 500 rose by +1.04% to 6,115.07 points. The Nasdaq 100 , which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, gained +1.43% to 22,030.71 points. [url=]"The producer price inflation in the United States stood at 3.5% year-on-year in January 2025, unchanged from the previous month's reading and exceeding market expectations of 3.2%. The rate remained at its highest level since February 2023." Which basically doesn't mean anything good for US inflation - because the prices are ultimately passed on to the US consumer, i.e. US taxpayers. Normal economic production - not just in the USA. But WallStreet seemed to have little reaction. In the middle of the week, a surprisingly strong rise in US consumer prices slowed down Wall Street somewhat. The producer prices that have now been published also increased more than expected, but it almost seems as if traders and/or investors have resigned themselves to the fact that interest rates will not be lowered so quickly? Me too!

Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??

That was the question last week - and we have to answer it with YES. And will ask ourselves this week too. To learn something new (old) this week too.

“Now look at the ideology of American supremacy. It has a solid foundation in reality; namely, the United States is the dominant power in the world. The current government believes the United States ought to use this dominant position to impose its will on the world. That is the misconception. This approach is not what made America great. America did not arrive at its dominant position by imposing its will on the world.”
George Soros

Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again??

The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the above this extended trendline of 107.400 points and/or 107.650 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.769 : 2025/02/13 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
It almost seems that the majority of traders and/or investors seem to be playing the "sell on facts" scenario when it comes to the - admittedly a hypothesis. But the price action surprises me - and proves me right. Even though I didn't expect that - quite the opposite. Because I unspokenly expected US inflation to be higher than the consensus had previously expected - but not the reaction. Simply “sell on facts”? I don't know! And that in relation to the two inflation data - [url=]CPI & [url=]PPI. So let's hold on again - and wait for tomorrow, the last trading day of this week, before we turn to the big picture again at the weekend. The chart technical picture doesn't look good - but is still not bearish. Only with a price action under 107.348 points! Why? As I wrote this week already: The 108.253 points were also the previous weekly high in the trading hour during the publication of the US inflation yesterday - and that only to be able to witness the current weekly low, at 107.703 points, just 4 hours later. Right now, the price action of the is at 107.335 points. What now? I don't know! After the price action bounced back during today's trading session, on Thursday, the 13rd February 2025, even more or less on our extended upside trendline around 107.550 points traders and/or investors send the price action under the trend - the trend is broken right now. Not a big sell signal - but if the bears also send the price action below the annual high of 2025, then even the last bull has to admit to himself: we are in a new scenario. At least if we want to methodically use the findings of technical analysis in a meaningful way in order not only to learn something every day, but also to earn money based on it. So let us wait and see - and/or stay fully focused, if you have open long or short positions. And let's hope as bulls that the ongoing upward trend holds - from the original upward trend on December 6th, 2024 at 105.420 points & 106.969 points on January 27th, 2025 - which is just more or less still around 107.550 points today also. Because with a price action below 107.550 points, let alone below the 2023 annual high of 107.348 points, I will also have to reassess the price action of the - which tends to be bearish. But let's wait until tomorrow's trading session ends on Friday. So that on the weekend - when the price action is at a standstill - we can analyze and evaluate everything again in a relaxed state, perhaps even better than we can today.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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