Another 48h - DXY With Slight Consolidation Into The Weekend

2025/02/21 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - DXY With Slight Consolidation Into The Weekend
“this week was a volatile bearish roller coaster ride once again!
how did this come about? now bullish again? remain bearish?”

On the New York stock exchanges, the weakness of WallStreet prices continued this Friday due to emerging economic and/or inflation concerns. The leading index Dow Jones Industrial fell by a large -1.69% to 43,428.02 points. The Nasdaq 100 , which is dominated by technology stocks, lost -2.06% to 21,614.08 points. The broad-based S&P 500 fell by -1.71% to 6,013.13 points. The short and medium-term chart picture became cloudy. Nevertheless, the upward trend is still intact - but the picture looks tarnished! No question? More on this at the weekend. On a weekly basis, all three indices posted significant losses: the Dow lost -2.5%, the S&P 500 -1.7% and/or the Nasdaq 100 -2.3%.

Different mood data from industry and/or the service sector ultimately increased the selling pressure somewhat on Friday. In addition, the consumer climate determined by the University of Michigan had deteriorated even more than expected. Which consequently somewhat clouded my expectations of growing out of US stagflation - which I still have. Nevertheless, I would not switch to the bear camp when it comes to WallStreet, as I did in the case of the . Because it seems like the fear of higher inflation on the foreign exchange market caused by tariffs has probably already been anticipated. That's why I am also surprised by the reaction of traders and/or investors on WallStreet. However - it is how it is! Maybe next week the same price action again? Or another price action development? I don't know! In any case, interest rate cut fantasies are off the table - as I've been trying to make clear to you for days! The FED has done its job (monetary policy) - now Trump and/or the US Republicans are responsible. Who can shape US fiscal policy and/or US economic policy according to their own ideas - without apology! He has a majority in both the House and Senate! My friend, a CFD online broker analyst, told me something interesting, which I don't want to hide from you at this point. He said to me yesterday "that traders and investors, as well as investors, could continue to rely on stocks from other regions of the world such as Asia or Europe, where prices are currently developing better because the stocks are not at all-time highs in historical comparison - i.e. they are valued more cheaply, even though many stocks are close to all-time highs. Technology stocks in China in particular were in demand on Friday. With DeepSeek, the Middle Kingdom has reminded people of its high performance in this area - better and cheaper!" Which I don't want to and can't contradict - and which Trump is also implementing with his US customs policy, if I do not misunderstand the meaning and purpose of his US tariffs policy. By relying on the fact that, due to the increase in the price of foreign products, “Made In The USA” products are also offering cheaper and cheaper to the US consumer. Which would then also be bought - should allow the US economy to continue to grow. And/Or would also defeat US inflation. Will that work? I always assumed that until today! But there are always more voices who doubt it - me too - and that's why the price action on WallStreet seems to be so difficult to cope with further higher prices, if I'm not mistaken.

Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again?

That was the question of the last 7th calendar week. To which we have to answer clearly with NO. The uptrend was important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). And as important, as long as traders and/or investors were trading and/or investing the above this extended trendline of more or less 108 points last week - but on last Wednesday, the 21th 2025 the last time. The importance of the upward trend that has expired becomes even more important as the annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 have also been broken downwards. So we learned that the bears have temporarily taken over the territory for both reasons.

“I start with the assumption that the market is always wrong and that there is a divergence between the way people look at a situation and what the situation is.”
George Soros

Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?

That is the question of this 8th calendar week. Because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely the 107.348 points.

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.641 : 2025/02/21 - last price action
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Low
106.347 : 2025/02/20 - This Week Low
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
The bottom line is that the recovered with +0.29% into the weekend. So that only a small minus of -0.14% remained over the week. Which felt much more bearish due to the volatility over the week! Maybe a glimmer of hope for the bulls? Anyway, regardless of our own emotions, let alone those of the market, i.e. the majority of traders and/or investors who are undoubtedly part of it, we concentrate on the price action. And at the end of this week it is even lower than the annual high for 2023 than it was at the beginning of the week. Namely at 106,641 points. Therefore, if I am not mistaken, the probability is and remains rather greater, that we could see a price action tending towards 105,192 points - the highest price on November 6th, 2024, the day Trump was re-elected. Also because we had the weekly low of 106.347 points on Thursday - which is only 0.294 points above the closing price. And today I don't know any reason why the bearish trend that seems to be just beginning should turn around on Monday!? But more about that at the weekend - on Saturday and/or Sunday as usual.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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