2025/02/11 - 7th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Selling Pressure In DXY Ahead Of US Inflation
“the upward trend from Dec. `24 & Jan. `25 is in danger this week!
us inflation data? us retail sales? do they play a role? `or only tariffs?”
"Whatever their effects, there is almost no doubt that Trump's policies, if implemented, will have a seismic impact on the global economy." And so it is not surprising that the US stock markets moved little this Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 and did not take a clear direction. Caution reigned again after US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on aluminum and steel from all countries the day before. "The European Commission vowed to retaliate against Donald Trump’s ordered tariffs of 25% on all US steel and aluminum imports on Tuesday, claiming that the “unjustified” duties will lead to “firm and proportionate countermeasures".
Anyway, the Dow Jones Industrial
DJIA closed +0.28% at 44,593.65 points. The broad-based S&P 500 
SP500 rose by +0.03% to 6,068.50 points. The Nasdaq 100 
NDX , which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, fell by -0.29% to 21,693.52 points. Fed Chairman Powell gave no indication today of cutting interest rates in the near future. So many traders and/or investors seem to lack the risk appetite, more or less, to buy this price action. “Since our monetary policy stance is now significantly less restrictive than before and the economy remains strong, we are in no hurry to change our monetary policy stance,” Powell told the US Senate Banking Committee, confirming recent statements. The Fed chief described the labor market as “not a source of significant inflationary pressure.”- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??
That was the question last week - and we have to answer it with YES. And will ask ourselves this week too. To learn something new (old) this week too.
“Let's deal first with my general theory of reflexivity: Essentially, it has to do with the role of the thinking participant, and the relationship between his thinking and the events in which he participates. I believe that a thinking participant is in a very difficult position, because he is trying to understand a situation in which he is one of the actors. Traditionally, we think of understanding as essentially a passive role, and participating is an active role. In truth, the two roles interfere with each other, which makes it impossible for the participant to base any decisions on pure or perfect knowledge. Classical economic theory assumes that market participants act on the basis of perfect knowledge. That assumption is false. The participants' perceptions influence the market in which they participate, but the market action also influences the participants' perceptions. They cannot obtain perfect knowledge of the market because their thinking is always affecting the market and the market is affecting their thinking. This makes analysis of market behavior much harder than it would be if the assumption of perfect knowledge were valid.”
George Soros
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again??
The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the
DXY above this extended trendline of 107.400 points and/or 107.650 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
108.319 : 2025/02/11 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
The
DXY opened this calendar week with a bullish GAP. And is currently on Tuesday evening, February 11, 2025 around 6:00 p.m. (Central European Time), at 108.059 points. So we can argue that the attempt to take over the price action of 108.337 points from Monday of the previous week, when Trump first announced US tariffs, failed - at least today and/or yesterday. However, price action is currently at 108.059 points, so that we can stay bullish until traders and/or investors don`t sell the DXY under the extended upward trend line - from the original upward trend on December 6th, 2024 at 105.420 points & 106.969 points on January 27th, 2025 - which is just more or less around 107.500 points today. So we can assume that the recovery that has started since the end of last week, with last week's weekly low of 107.296 points - more or less even on this uptrend line - is likely to be confirmed this week? As long as the price action is above the extended uptrend line! And that's before the US Inflation tomorrow on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and/or even US retail sales on Friday.So we can assume that the DXY will tend to stay slightly bullish, and that price action will tend to be higher again - if the data don`t comes significantly lower than expected.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.