2025/02/04
Another 48h - Profit Taking In DXY Today, Currently At -0.41%
“ambivalent about trump tariffs, it will be a groundbreaking week!
are the bears taking over the terrain? below highs of 2023 & 2024?”
"Trump has wasted little time getting his feet under the desk: the flurry of executive orders has been both broad and expedient." realised Victor Balfour, Global Investment Strategist, from Rothschild & Co, on January 30, 2025 already. And he's right about this - the customs policy of the United States under Donald Trump's watch also mainly influenced the mood of traders and/or investors on Tuesday, February 4th, 2025. Today, in contrast to yesterday, there was something like a certain relief again. US stock markets began a recovery from recent losses. Nevertheless, since Friday, since Donald Trump first made concrete statements about tariffs, things have been going up and down - depending on what news there is about the new President Donald Trump's measures to enforce America's national interests. After a shock at the start of the week, traders and/or investors reacted positively to the fact that the USA and its neighboring countries Mexico and Canada have agreed to suspend tariffs - starting next month. The chart from Trading Economics clearly shows that when we talk about US tariffs on US imports, it is almost 50% of the imports that the US imports annually. The tariff dispute with China was viewed with a certain degree of calmness, as the market is expected to be willing to negotiate and make possible compromises. Nevertheless, what I have been writing for weeks still applies; to focus on individual companies, namely stocks, that are not affected by tariffs. What you can always read in the quarterly reports.
"Why did Trump pause Canada, Mexico tariffs? Inside 24 hours of chaos," Al Jazeera also asked itself today. Of course I don't know either! But I can imagine that he will take his time and discuss the consequences mathematically and/or semantically with his closest friends. Because he was immediately punished by Wall Street with falling prices - which he could accept if it benefits US taxpayers and/or US consumers. But because it seems like that he defines himself, for better or worse, with a rising WallStreet, he may have rowed back for the time being!? So what?! The rise in price action on the WallStreet is mainly the responsibility of the US fiscal policy, which financed the US Democrats and their voters, US taxpayers & US consumers, who consume material wealth on credit, in the form of a historically high US government deficit, historically high US foreign trade balance (even goods from foreign countries - even not made in the usa), and also historically fundamentally overvalued US stock markets.
Anyway, the Dow Jones Industrial
DJIA gained +0.26% to 44,535.93 points around two hours before the market closed. On Friday, the best-known Wall Street index had almost reached a record level again before news on the subject of tariffs somewhat spoiled investors' bullish expectations. The market-wide S&P 500 
SP500 , on the other hand, gained +0.66% to 6,034.24 points this Tuesday. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 
NDX was truly strong again today with an increase of +1.13% to 21,537.95 points.- Will the annual high of 2023 at 107.348 hold?
The answer to this question last week was yes. Because traders and/or investors sent the
DXY to a low of 107.500 points over the course of the last week on Thursday, January 30, 2025. Even above 107.348 points - which was the annual high of 2023, from 2023/10/03. From this point of view we may be experiencing a trend reversal this week.“I recognize that I may be wrong. This makes me insecure. My sense of insecurity keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors. I do this on two levels. On the abstract level, I have turned the belief in my own fallibility into the cornerstone of an elaborate philosophy.”
George Soros
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??
The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the
DXY above this extended trendline of 108.480 points and/or 108.640 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/02 - High Of This Week
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.960 : 2025/02/04 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.969 : 2025/01/27 - Low Of Last Week
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
The
DXY is shot - the bears have taken over the territory. And a significant, groundbreaking terrain - namely that between the 2025 annual high of 110,176 points and/or even the 2024 annual high of 108,583 points. Traders and/or investors are currently moving the DXY at 107,966 points - even below the annual highs of 2025 and/or 2024. And if you look at the chart, the low of the last week of 106.969 points, dated January 27th, 2025, is more likely than a comeback by the bulls - at least from today's perspective. And yes, I will and/or can no longer rule out the DXY falling back to the intraday high on the night of Donald Trump's re-election night to 105.192 points. If bulls have already discounted everything in advance, i.e. anticipated it - and now the bears are taking over the territory again for the time being. What I personally only want to talk about is when traders and/or investors send the price action of the DXY back below the annual high for 2023 - i.e. 107.348 points. Then I would also speak of a tendentially bearish trend in the DXY - and expect further lower points. To date, the current scenario in the DXY, at least since the beginning of 2025, has tended to be sideways - and no longer bullish, due to the trend break today.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.