Another 48h - Break Of All 3 Uptrends Confirmed This Week

2025/02/22 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Break Of All 3 Uptrends Confirmed This Week
“all upward trends since the annual low 2024 have been broken!
what does that mean? bearish? how deep? when bullish again?”

The stock market year 2025 is barely two months old when it experienced its first flash crash with the DeepSeep shock. As a reminder: A new AI language model has triggered a stock market earthquake: The hype surrounding Deepseek has destroyed almost $600 billion at chip manufacturer Nvidia NVDA alone. Deepseek R1 comes from China, was developed more cheaply and/or is better - inclusive open source based." And all this just a few months after the last mini-crash, which occurred due to exchange rate fluctuations in the US dollar/Japanese yen currency pair and threatened the so-called carry trade. The repetition of such a scenario is becoming increasingly likely in view of the current development of the usd/jpy currency pair , because the US dollar is once again on the decline against the yen - also because this development is being pushed forward by the policies of US President Donald Trump. What I consider this to be wrong - but that doesn't matter. Nevertheless, I would like to point out at this point - as a teacher, as a head coach, as a trainer, as a friend of the USA - that due to a historically high twin deficit (US government deficit & US foreign trade balance deficit), a stronger DXY would be better for the US consumer and/or also US taxpayers. Be that as it may, this is what the traders and/or investors will decide among themselves on the foreign exchange market, as before and/or in the future. Which is why I pay so much attention to the annual high of 2023. The repeated threats of a customs and trade war and the geopolitical realignment of the USA are causing many reporters - in this case not my case - to lose confidence in a predictable and reliable US policy. This development has also been reflected in a significant outperformance of European stocks in 2025.

That's why the focus is on the yield curve and/or individual value shares - cash flow machines, ideally those that also pay a dividend. And who are immune to US tariff policy because it does not directly affect their business model. "The Fed members have expressed that if the US labor market continues to be near full employment, they want to see further progress in reducing inflation before further interest rate adjustments are made," my friend, a cfd online broker analyst told me, some days ago. Sure - from the Fed's perspective we are in the best of all worlds. Trump said goodbye to the New Green Deal, the previous Biden/Harris government - thus solving the cause of the past US stagflation. And now it's up to his US budget policy and or even US customs policy when it comes to the budget gap. And/Or also the foreign trade balance. That is not the FED's area of responsibility - fiscal policy and/or economic policy. It is precisely the responsibility of Trump and/or his US Republicans. Anyway, as I wrote from days and/or weeks ago, if the US tariffs get into account starting next month March 2025 and the US consumer dont get a Made In USA alternative for the goods, which will even be +...% more expensive? This could be the reason for the next US inflation wave! Because tariffs are fundamentally a useful instrument for every economy - but only if at the same time there is an internal national offer that is even better and/or cheaper for its own consumer! Otherwise the calculation doesn't add up - imports fall, the economy shrinks and/or a new wave of inflation rises if consumers don't consume less because demand will get greater than supply. But Trump and his team certainly know that too. Which is why I'm fundamentally optimistic about Trump and the DXY as well as WallStreet . But don't forget: “He has only been in office for a month! And he cannot overcome time, let alone go out of time ahead of himself - like everybody else too!”

“Yes. I never claimed credit for it. I was involved in the process. As coach, I said to him that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, the risk-reward relationship is extremely favorable, and therefore we should play it on a larger scale than normal. And he took my advice.”
George Soros

106.969 : 2025/01/27 - 3rd Upside Trend 2nd Leg
106.641 : 2024/02/21 - last price action
105.420 : 2024/12/06 - 3rd Upside Trend 1st Leg
105.420 : 2024/12/06 - 2nd Upside Trend 2nd Leg
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - 2nd Upside Trend 1st Leg
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - 1st Upside Trend 2nd Leg
100.179 : 2024/09/30 - 1st Upside Trend 1st Leg
Traders and/or investors only sent the DXY -152 points bearishly down during the past calendar week. But it felt like it was -1.52%. A real rollercoaster ride lies behind us! Because the third uptrend in the price action development broke already last week before. And that inclusive with a bearish break down under the annual high of 2023. What is truly significant! Why? Because with the break of the extended third uptrend line and next to the annual high of 2023, a bearish trend reversal formation is confirmed. What the last trading days - from the penultimate Friday, February 14th, 2025 to last Friday, February 21st, 2025 - also confirm. Just after the bearish breakdown on Thursday, February 13th, 2025. Because on the last trading days alone you can see between the 2 clearly bearish trading days on the two Fridays, with -0.25% and/or -0.77%. The obviously existing bearish selling pressure, because traders and/or investors are exerting price action on the . Nevertheless, also slightly bullish recovery days, such as last Wednesday, February 19th, 2025, when the price action was above the 2025 annual high of 107,348 points for 2.3 hours, we also experienced last week. Namely at 107,381 points at the top. So a recovery in the coming week is certainly possible - but I consider the probability of a further fall in the price action of the towards 105,441 points to be more likely.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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