Another 48h - DXY Turned Bullish Over The Course Of The Week

2025/02/28 - 9th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - DXY Turned Bullish Over The Course Of The Week
“after bearish previous weeks, this seems to be turning bullish!
what happened? what was the reason? the bullish reasons?”

The political developments surrounding Donald Trump are causing considerable uncertainty regarding price action on the financial market and led to a significant decline on the global stock exchanges yesterday, Thursday, February 27th, 2025. And also today on Friday, February 28th, 2025 in Australia and/or also Asia. And guess what? I love it! Why? Because he is trying to make policy for the US taxpayer and/or US consumers - he had previously promised it - and is actually trying to implement it! And also tries to position itself as a peace broker between Ukraine & Russia! Will that work? I don't know that either! That's why the volatile price action - both up and down! Nvidia , for example, lost a whopping $273 billion in market capitalization in a single day like yesterday after the stock fell -8.5%. This means that Apple currently remains the only company with a market capitalization of over three trillion US dollars. But what surprises me and I somehow cannot understand intellectually and do not want to understand is the outcry of many writing (political) reporters who give you the feeling that he almost has to apologize for his outspoken support for peace - and or also for his US taxpayers & US consumers. Many have criticized him for using US tariffs "Trump tariffs of 25% on Canada, Mexico set to kick in March 4 - Trump's comments Thursday clarified confusion he said on Wednesday when he seemed to suggest tariffs would be pushed back to April.", as AlJazeera reported. And/Or The Guardian once again published also an article worth reading under the headline “Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional 10% tariff on its exports to the US, prompting a promise of “countermeasures” from Beijing and setting the stage for another significant escalation in the two governments’ trade war.”. Don't get me wrong - I criticize him too. Feel free to read articles with strong content that have a different opinion - like these two, for example. But that's what I meant in principle - with this panther, around his person. As if everyone was waiting for him to come out with something negative. And then everyone can criticize him for it.

The price action of the stock markets reacted immediately to these developments worldwide. In the US, the S&P 500 lost -1.59% yesterday, while the Dow Jones only fell -0.45%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 even fell by -2.78%. While the Asian markets also closed in the red tonight - CET (Central European Time). The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell by -2.9%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong even lost -3.2%. While the Australian S&P/ASX 200 only fell -1.16%. The price action of the stock markets reacted immediately to these developments worldwide. In the US, the S&P 500 lost -1.59% yesterday, while the Dow Jones fell -0.45%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite even fell by -2.78%. And the Asian markets also closed in the red. The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell by -2.9%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong even lost -3.2%. While the Australian S&P/ASX 200 only fell -1.16%. Before the opening bell on WallStreet this Friday, February 28th, 2025, our German stock markets curbed their losses around midday. Our leading German index DAX fell by -0.30% to 22,482 points. While the MDax for medium-sized companies fell by -0.74% to 28,348 points. Our european EuroStoxx 50 is currently down -0.5%.

Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?

That was the question of the last 8th calendar week. And we have to answer this question with NO - because the last price action on Friday, the 21st february 2025 was 106.641 points. Answering this question was instructive because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely even the 107.348 points.

“As I like to put it, we have hit pay dirt. The effort to cure the resource curse is a good example of what private foundations working with NGOs can accomplish.”
George Soros

Will The Bears Defend The Terrain Under 107.348 Points Once Again This Week?

This is the question of this 9th calendar week. And it is important because it would confirm the trend reversal formation above the 2023 annual high, at just 107.348 Points points, in the second week in a row.

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.351 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day
Traders and/or investors only sent the DXY during today's trading session, on Thursday, the 27th February 2025 at 106.665 points (some minutes after the closing bell on WallStreet). What are - 0.003 points above the Annual High of 2023, from the 3rd October 2023, at 107.348 points. What is fundamentally important in this respect is to be able to detect whether the short-term bearish trend reversal formation above the 2023 annual high of just 107.348 points will be confirmed this week. And we tend to continue to see slightly falling price action towards Trump's Election Day Intraday High of 105.441 points. Or will the bulls be starting to fight back this week? And traders and/or investors who will send price action above 107.348 points again by the weekend?

109.881 : 2025/02/02 - 1st Short Downtrend 1st Leg
108.523 : 2025/02/12 - 1st Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
108.523 : 2025/02/12 - 2nd Short Downtrend 1st Leg
107.381 : 2025/02/19 - 2nd Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
107.381 : 2025/02/19 - 3rd Short Downtrend 1st Leg
106.789 : 2025/02/24 - 3rd Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Before Low
107.351 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
106.334 : 2025/02/20 - Last Week Low
106.126 : 2025/02/23 - This Week Low
And it currently looks like traders and/or investors have come to the realization over the course of the week so far that a stronger is preferred. At least in the first hour after the opening bell on Wall Street - because the price action is currently, although hardly worth mentioning, at least +0.003 points above the 2023 annual high. Who would have thought that at the beginning of the week? Not me! And what an insightful, instructive week it was again - and also the data last from today, an hour ago. "PCE prices in the United States increased 2.5% year-on-year in January 2025, marking its first slowdown in four months, compared to 2.6% in December 2024, and in line with expectations. PCE Price Index Annual Change in the United States averaged 3.29 percent from 1960 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 11.60 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of -1.47 percent in July of 2009." A small glimmer of hope for the bears - that US inflation might not rise again. But let's not kid ourselves, it was and is what Trump (won't) do with regards to US tariffs. And or will (not) be agreed with the Ukrainian President later today. So, as usual, there will be more on the weekend - Saturday and/or Sunday.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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