2025/03/02 - 9th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - 9/11 & Coronavirus Outbreak In Historical Context
every currency becomes less valuable when you get into debt & go to war“!
is this the case now? euro? dollar? historical examples? educational ones?”
What exciting times? What disastrous times? What lively times! Despite all the verbal chatter about the meeting between Trump and Zelensky on Friday in the White House, right here, right now, today on Sunday morning, March 2nd, 2025, I am overwhelmed by the feeling that it also had something healing. We in our so-called West - above all the political class and/or all rapporteurs - are now forced to decide on peace plans, war plans, and objectives regarding Ukraine, the east of Ukraine, and Russia's war of military aggression against eastern Ukraine. And that's a good thing - the more you do it verbally, civilly, and argumentatively. Because the likelihood of an end is likely to come closer - even if you can be outraged by Trump's tone and content. And/Or you also overreact emotionally, just like Trump did. “The tense meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and former President Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office on Friday ended in acrimony, drawing strong reactions from leaders across the world. The encounter, marked by sharp disagreements over U.S. support for Ukraine, left allies reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv while prompting criticism from Moscow and some European nationalist leaders.” However you`re thinking about it - agree or disagree - i think his political instinct is right, his motive! He wants to position himself as a peacemaker - as a peace broker. And that's why he deserves the biggest salute I can give him, at least from me - because he has the strongest military in our so-called West under his command! "NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has appealed for calm after the Trump-Zelenskiy war of words, encouraging the Ukrainian president to repair his strained relationship with his US counterpart. In an interview with the BBC, Rutte described the heated exchange at the Oval Office of the White House on Friday as “unfortunate”. “It is important that President Zelenskyy finds a way to restore his relationship with the American president and the senior American leadership team,” the NATO chief said, adding: “Ukraine and its allies should respect what President Trump has done so far for Ukraine.” Polish President Andrzej Duda also called on Zelensky to return to negotiations with the US." was published 28m ago on AlJazeera's live update ticker, at 10:15 CET (Central European Time). Anyway, if you`re asking me, for better or for worse, his Christian, Jew-friendly temperament broke out because he didn't feel understood as a peace broker. What you can realize, if you put the reaction of the Green Democratic military Keynesianists under the guise of liberality, in our so-called West, since then in the reporting, in the right context also. Even my christian democrats and/or social democrats, even moderate political rights and/or leftists, here in Germany and/or Europe, seem also to be afraid of dehypnosing themselves in public. All his critics are arguing as they seem to have been dehyptonized blamers, warmongers, historical transfigurers - due to their own political desire for monetary compensation and don't want to believe what they heard and or even saw. And what is Trump trying to do? Peacefully surplus policy for the us consumers & us taxpayers! And that's why "The euro dropped on Friday, after a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump went up in flames, dashing hopes any peace deal could be reached soon in the war with Russia.", what Reuters wrote on Friday already. If I correctly interpret the reaction of his political oppositions - in the usa, in our so called west. That's why the price action on WallStreet
DJIA 
SP500 
NDX more than recovered in the last few hours of trading - precisely because now, in our so-called West, politicians will have to finally talking about peace with regard to Ukraine also since now - and not about war! How long does this last? Whether he can cultivate peace? Yes, even conservative it? We will experience this in the coming days & weeks, and probably even months & quarters, one way or another. But in any case, this weekend, if you want a fundamental outlook in context about the Trump policies, it seems that the 
DXY and/or WallStreet SP500 NDX can go even higher - while I would stay away from commodities for the reasons just stated. Yes, I would even go short on a case-by-case basis. But more on that in the future.“On the abstract level, I have turned the belief in my own fallibility into the cornerstone of an elaborate philosophy. On a personal level, I am a very critical person who looks for defects in myself as well as in others. But, being so critical, I am also quite forgiving. I couldn't recognize my mistakes if I couldn't forgive myself. To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”
George Soros
107.564 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
102.979 : 2020/03/23 - High While Coronavirus Outbreak
094.650 : 2020/03/06 - Low While Coronavirus Outbreak
When the Corona virus broke out, the price action of the
DXY ultimately only moved by +0.93% in March 2020 - 98.122 points to 99.048 points. But if you extrapolate from the monthly low of 96,650 points to the monthly high of 102,992 points, it was still +8.81%. And that was an unusual price action, with a corresponding scenario, which is why we want to pay attention to the monthly high and low, in a historical context. Because in retrospect, the coronavirus outbreak was something like a trigger for a short-term downward trend (even from March 2020 to December 2020) in an overarching medium-term upward trend (with lows in February 2018 and/or January 2021). Which was then bullishly accelerated in February 2022 due to Russia's military invasion of eastern Ukraine - due to fears of impending inflation and the associated interest rate hikes, which then came. I don't want to go into that in more detail here because it has nothing to do with the coronavirus outbreak - and the historical context in this post. Because at this point I would like to discuss not only the coronavirus outbreak but also the terrorist attacks of 9/11.115.110 : 2001/09/11 - High Before 9/11 (2001)
112.200 : 2001/09/14 - Low After 9/11 (2001)
107.564 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
The reaction of the market, or more precisely of the foreign exchange market, i.e. the traders and/or investors, to the attacks on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, had hardly any immediate impact. If you just look at the price action, then it's not really worth mentioning. Because the high on Tuesday, September 11, 2001 at 115.110 points and the low on Friday, September 14, 2001 at 112,200 points (the first trading day after no securities trading took place in the USA for 3 days) was and is only -2.53% small. But if you take the historical context of that time into account, then it gets exciting - truly truly interesting! Because the annual high of July 2001, at 121,020 points, was last valued on the foreign exchange market in February 1986. And that was over 15 years ago, at this time - and/or was at a time when the Euro did not yet exist and our so-called West was in the Cold War with the Soviet Union at that time. But not only in retrospect - if you think back from September 2001 - but also looking ahead, from September 2001, the price action of the
DXY, especially after the 9/11 attacks, is very revealing. Big historical context - many many to learn! Because the DXY fell, after it rose again. But wait a moment - breathe out and/or in - and step by step further! After the price action of the DXY fell to 111.310 points during the trading session on Monday, September 17, 2001, to 111.310 points traders and/or investors on the forex sent the DXY bullishly up until to 120,510 points on January 28, 2001 - before the bears took over the terrain and the price action felt bearishly on April 26, 2002 back again under 115.110 points & on May 29, 2002 under 111.310 points also. Yes and? You might ask yourself? What does that have to do with today? Wait! Wait! Because the DXY then fell to a new historic low of 70,698 points, which was traded on March 17, 2008 in day trading. Which was not only almost 7 years later shortly before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. No - that's another story that I don't want to go into here. I just want to point out in this post that looking back, that the bearish downfall was -41.33%!!! Why? What does that have to do with today? It's my deja vu! And/or maybe you're too? Like I tried to organize the words and numbers in yesterday's post! The adventurous desire for war, to get into debt - and to waste money abroad! Back then it was the USA, just after 9/11 with its Afghanistan and Iraq missions. And today, we Europeans also seem to be full of warlike desires - even like the US Americans after 911 - our so called West - to get into debt in order to use military force to convince those who think differently of our (delusional) west ideas, as if we had to convince ourselves and others of our (imagined) greatness - that the world has to revolve according to our ideas. As if we weren't all 5 of our wits about us. Instead of making sure that Putin is also at the table - instead of waging war against Russia - and spending the money on the domestic economy. clear - it's a political decision! And if Europe speaks with one voice - all members of the EU - then that is what will happen! Then I too accept that. Nevertheless, after the political theater in the White House last Friday, I just fear that we here in Europe, and/or her in Germany, 20 years later, will make the same mistake as the USA did 20 years ago. And that only, because the US president in all his temperamental ambition, the Christian friend of the Jews spoke not to the Orthodox Christian Putin in public like he spoke to the Jew Zelensky - what would have been the right recipient. Which is why I argue for doing everything humanly possible to get both parties to the table - Russians & Ukrainians - Ptin & Zelensky - and to settle everything politically in a civilized and peaceful way, just as every politicians before the war and after the war, and all uninvolved parties in the world are doing elsewhere today already. That's why dont get me wrong, in historical context, about the blame game and/or even war in Eastern Ukraine, also. Because after all the ongoing political wrangling, i know if i am not wrong, Putin decided to march militarily into Eastern Ukraine already in February & March 2014 and/or even on 22th February 2022 - after Ukraine, Europe, the USA, our so-called West, had explicitly refused to accept the election result of sovereign independence of the regions. ”Correct me, if I am wrong - that's how you deal and/or even make peace!”, whether as a private individual or as president - and even with a handshake, without a contract, let alone a signature! Because you can rely on the other person's word - and that is what Zelensky is trying to say the whole time, with his words, if I understand him correctly. By repeatedly referring to security guarantees. However - that's it, if I, as a Christian friend of the Jews, have not also been mistaken in the historical context. Because I'm personally afraid that we Europeans will now make the same war-mongering, adventurous mistake like the USA did 20 years ago, and get into debt in order to go to war against Russia. I personally will not be there in 2025 either - just as I did back in 2002, in the case of the USA, against Iraq.115.110 : 2001/09/11 - High Before 9/11 (2001)
112.200 : 2001/09/14 - Low After 9/11 (2001)
107.564 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
102.979 : 2020/03/23 - High While Coronavirus Outbreak
094.650 : 2020/03/06 - Low While Coronavirus Outbreak
Nevertheless, let's go one step further - and use today's article as a learning example for the whole of 2025! Maybe even longer? Or not at all? I don't know! But then we at least have something like a proactive navigation capability. And can then decide freely. Even if the price action remains incorrect (either always overvalued or undervalued), because we are all imperfect. Like those who buy the
DXY price actions bullishly or sell it bearishly. Still alive? Then keep the following in mind! That's how we can act as traders and/or investors after today's lessons - if you want! If you assume that we Europeans will get into even more debt, trim our already recessionary economies in individual countries to a war economy, spend more on our security in order to protect ourselves militarily against Russia, then the instinctive emotional rational consequence of today's analysis, assessment, and or even expectation is to be bullish - even sell 
EURUSD . And that with the price targets of 112.200 points & 115.110 points and/or higher - with a stop price at 102.979 points. On the other side, if you assume that we Europeans will not get into even more debt, never trim our already recessionary economies in individual countries to a war economy, and/or don't spend more on our security in order to protect ourselves militarily against Russia, then the instinctive emotional rational consequence of today's analysis, assessment, and or even expectation is to be bearish - even buy EURUSD . And that with the price targets of 102.979 points & 094.650 points and/or lower - with a stop price at 112.200 points. I have deliberately chosen the stop prices in both cases - in case you are bullish or bearish. Because on the one hand they are the weekly low of 112.200 points from the week of the 911 attacks in 2001. And/Or also on the other side the high from March 2020, during the Corona virus outbreak, with 102.979 points. Yes and? You may be wondering? Because price action in the bullish direction upwards and/or bearish downwards - and also beyond and/or also below - would (not) confirm the hypothesis of a deja vu, back then in the USA and now here in Europe. Going into debt in order to finance warlike militant adventures abroad. Which weakens every currency - be it EUR EURX ? USD DXY ? Whichever one! However - enough for today! I hope I got the learning content across today! That's why, as before, more about the DXY price action daily, like from Monday back again with the help of the 1h price action in the next “Another 48h - DXY …” post.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.